IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/irc-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20649:1" rel="noopener">Irc Ltd (1029 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orecorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8120:1" rel="noopener">Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/probiotec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12047:1" rel="noopener">Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU)</a>, Volpara Health.</li>
<li>Lowest spreads - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tietto-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28006:1" rel="noopener">Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2b-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16558:1" rel="noopener">A2B Australia (A2B AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ijtt-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19461:1" rel="noopener">IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-k-toka-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18678:1" rel="noopener">T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-rakutenchi-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2078:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP)</a>, Pact Group.</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads - Irc Ltd (1029 HK), Orecorp Ltd (ORR AU), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Adbri (ABC AU), Probiotec Ltd (PBP AU), Volpara Health.
Lowest spreads - Tietto Minerals Ltd (TIE AU), A2B Australia (A2B AU), IJTT Co., Ltd. (7315 JP), T&amp;K Toka Co Ltd (4636 JP), Tokyo Rakutenchi (8842 JP), Pact Group.


Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) - JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments - Nothing of note in a quiet week.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/benefit-one-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14502:1" rel="noopener">Benefit One Inc (2412 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17620:1" rel="noopener">JSR Corp (4185 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/weiqiao-textile-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3690:1" rel="noopener">Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adbri-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20166:1" rel="noopener">Adbri (ABC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/azure-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16538:1" rel="noopener">Azure Minerals (AZS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments - Nothing of note in a quiet week.
Event-Driven developments - Benefit One Inc (2412 JP), JSR Corp (4185 JP), Weiqiao Textile Co (2698 HK), Adbri (ABC AU), Azure Minerals (AZS AU), Link Administration (LNK AU).


Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) - Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>While the Bank of Japan didn't change monetary policy -it just delays the inevitable.</li>
<li>Rate differentials have only one way to go and will benefit the JPY.</li>
<li>Position now for a strong JPY as the market anticipates the change.</li>
</ul>


While the Bank of Japan didn't change monetary policy -it just delays the inevitable.
Rate differentials have only one way to go and will benefit the JPY.
Position now for a strong JPY as the market anticipates the change.


Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We see Ueda’s pause on lifting its negative rates policy as temporary, and we expect that this policy change could occur as early as January</li>
<li>Despite this monetary pause in tightening and the fall in 10Y JGB yields, we are encouraged by the rise in long term loan yields in the BoJ data to October-end</li>
<li>We reiterate our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, MUFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


We see Ueda’s pause on lifting its negative rates policy as temporary, and we expect that this policy change could occur as early as January
Despite this monetary pause in tightening and the fall in 10Y JGB yields, we are encouraged by the rise in long term loan yields in the BoJ data to October-end
We reiterate our positive views on Resona, Mizuho, MUFG and Concordia


Japanese Banks – No Change to Our Bullish View on the Back of the BoJ’s Pause on Interest Rates

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> has entered a SID with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-ufj-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:218:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)</a> at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.</li>
<li>The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. </li>
<li>MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.</li>
</ul>



Link Administration (LNK AU) has entered a SID with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP) at A$2.26 (A$2.10 scheme consideration + A$0.16 dividend), a 32.9% premium to the undisturbed price.
The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose a challenge for the scheme to get up. 
MUFG’s offer could spark a rival offer, but Link’s long-suffering shareholders have endured a history of failed bids. At the last close, the risk/reward is unfavourable.


Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

Japan

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc. (MUFG) is a holding company established through the merger of Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group and UFJ Holdings. As a financial group, the Company provides a variety of financial and investment services including commercial banking, trust banking, international finance, and assets management services.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

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Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MUFG) (8306 JP)

Merger Arb Mondays (25 Dec) - JSR, Benefit One, IRC, Adbri, Link, A2B, Probiotec, Lithium Power

This week, the highest gross spreads are IRC (25.5%), OreCorp (14.2%), Shinko Electric (9.0%), JSR (8.6%), Adbri (6.3%), Probiotec (5.7%), Volpara...

Arun George

Weekly Deals Digest (24 Dec) - Benefit One, JSR, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure, Link, Probiotec

Last week, notable developments occurred in Event-Driven (Benefit One, JSR, Toyo Construction, Weiqiao Textile, A2B, Adbri, Azure Minerals, Link...

Arun George

Keep Buying the Japanese Yen

Bank of Japan inaction is only delaying the inevitable with it only being a matter of time before the JPY strengthens as a result of normalised...

Rikki Malik

Japanese Banks – No Change to Our Bullish View on the Back of the BoJ’s Pause on Interest Rates

BoJ's decision to pause on lifting negative rates is temporary and could change as soon as January; evidence of higher long term loan rates...

Victor Galliano

Link Admin (LNK AU): MUFG’s Underwhelming Binding Offer

The presence of several substantial shareholders, lack of irrevocables, a light offer, recent derisking of the business and a long-dated offer pose...

Arun George

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