Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

The <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/89efb01d-b5f9-427b-b779-b118cd4383f0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FT has an article</a> out saying that the Japanese government had directed some initial feelers towards Honda and Nissan raising the possibility of a merger between the two companies. This is not especially surprising to us and we had touted the possibility earlier this year as being more plausible than it would appear on the surface. According to the FT, the idea was rather roundly shot down by both sides. This too is not particularly surprising, but we believe that while now is not the ideal time for a merger, it is one of the few options which could help the companies regain vigour… if done correctly, which will be difficult.

The FT has an article out saying that the Japanese government had directed some initial feelers towards Honda and Nissan raising the possibility of a merger between the two companies. This is not especially surprising to us and we had touted the possibility earlier this year as being more plausible than it would appear on the surface. According to the FT, the idea was rather roundly shot down by both sides. This too is not particularly surprising, but we believe that while now is not the ideal time for a merger, it is one of the few options which could help the companies regain vigour… if done correctly, which will be difficult.

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income, Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Geoff Howie

SGX Market Strategist, Equity & Fixed Income

Asia’s leading multi-asset exchange

Singapore Exchange Ltd (SGX)

Singapore Exchange is Asia’s leading and trusted market infrastructure, facilitating the exchange of capital and ideas to create value for people, businesses and economies. As a multi-asset exchange operating equity, fixed income and derivatives markets to the highest regulatory standards, SGX is a vertically integrated business that provides listing, trading, clearing, settlement, depository and data services.

With about 40% of listed companies and over 80% of listed bonds originating outside of Singapore as well as established linkages across the region and in Europe, SGX is Asia’s most international and connected exchange. Offering a full suite of derivatives products across Asian equity indices, commodities and currencies, SGX is the world’s most liquid international market for the benchmark equity indices of China, India, Japan and ASEAN.

As Asia’s pioneering central counterparty, SGX is globally recognised for its risk management and clearing capabilities, and was one of the first globally to adopt the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructure.

Headquartered in AAA-rated Singapore, SGX has over 800 employees including offices in Beijing, Chicago, Hong Kong, London, New York, Mumbai, San Francisco, Shanghai and Tokyo.

Equity Bottom-Up

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://api2.sgx.com/sites/default/files/2020-08/Megroup-CEO.jpg" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Megroup-CEO</div>

Engineer Wong Cheong Chee is a man who appreciates his machines.&nbsp;
As a testament to this, the Executive Chairman and CEO of SGX-listed automotive component manufacturer and dealer MeGroup Ltd spent more than four decades of his career in manufacturing.
After graduating from the University of Malaya with a degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1970, Wong started off by learning the ropes of business on the factory floor.&nbsp;
"The early years were foundation years for me," the 73-year-old recalled. “Back in those days, I was always fiddling with mechanical parts. I came to understand the role that machines and automation played in the production process, and also learned to maintain or calibrate machines to fit the factory's production needs."
"You could say that by now, I know everything about machines, since I always talk to them," he added,&nbsp;tongue firmly in cheek.
In 1995, Wong co-founded Menang Nusantara Sdn Bhd in a burst of restless&nbsp;energy, shortly after a RM60 million turnover company he co-founded – Paragon Union Bhd – was listed on Bursa Malaysia. "After Paragon went public, I briefly toyed with the idea of retiring," he recalled.
But Wong – then 48 – couldn't sit still. "I was young and restless, and I wanted to keep working, so I started Menang Nusantara with a friend. I was betting on my years of industry experience and strong relationships with my customers to make this venture work."
Menang Nusantara was initially a pure manufacturing business, and later expanded to include a dealership arm to diversify its revenues.
The journey proved to be a bumpy one, but Wong has&nbsp;no regrets. "Over the years, we experienced numerous recessions in Malaysia, more than four or five. But we pulled through each and every one of them, because of teamwork,” he recalled.
“I remember one setback we faced – a factory fire in 2016. We were able to recover and rebuild the plant in just two months, thanks to the team."
Wong's consistent comebacks from his challenges has earned him the nickname of “phoenix” among his peers, in reference to the mythical bird that rises from the ashes each time in a cycle of rebirth and regeneration.
“The highlights of my 40-year journey were the occasions when I was able to pull myself out of the pit, emerging bigger and stronger from those turbulent times,” he added.
Prudent Management
Wong has also gleaned precious lessons from each experience – a key one being prudent cash flow management. "Your operations need to be sustainable, and for that to happen, cost controls are critical. To be able to tide through price wars and downturns, you must ensure you’re not overspending."
“And every day can be a challenge, because you don’t know what’s going to come, and you need to prepare yourself for battle.”
Another highlight, he discovered, was the cohesiveness of the MeGroup team, which played an essential role when it came to problem-solving.
“When you’re faced with a crisis and sleepless nights, it’s teamwork that makes a difference – when the team comes up with a consistent strategy and moves forward in one direction.”
Listed on SGX Catalist in October 2018 as MeGroup Ltd, the Group comprises two business divisions – Manufacturing and Dealership.&nbsp;For the full year ended 31 March 2020, MeGroup reported a revenue of RM245.8 million on a net profit of RM1.2 million.&nbsp;
Its Manufacturing unit specialises in Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, mostly for the automotive industry. NVH parts include headliners and engine outers that are incorporated into various sections of the automobile, such as dashboard, hood and boot, while non-NVH components include parcel trays and board assembly decks.
The Dealership business owns a portfolio of six automotive brands, ranging from Peugeot and Mazda to Hyundai and Honda, with eight dealership outlets, and one undergoing construction.
Although the outlook for Malaysia’s automotive industry has been clouded by the impact of COVID-19 and a weak economic backdrop, transportation remains a necessity. Even with new mobility solutions, the country still requires private vehicles, Wong pointed out.
Last year, the government announced plans to develop a third national car under the National Automotive Policy. MeGroup has registered its interest as a vendor to design and make NVH and non-NVH parts for the project – if it does materialise.
Reinvent, Recreate
At the same time, the Group is exploring other industries to broaden its revenues and achieve long-term sustainable growth. It is already supplying NVH components to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer.
“Our penetration into the HVAC industry will allow us to bring our manufacturing and production capabilities to other HVAC players,” Wong added.
“Another strategy is to increase the number of products MeGroup can manufacture with its current capabilities, and supply to other sectors, such as the mattress industry, and floor carpeting services for offices and hotels,” Wong noted.
Under its dealership arm, the Group plans to obtain new brand partnerships and acquire other existing dealerships to expand organically and inorganically.
One such move was its recent contract win from Mitsubishi Motors to operate a dealership under their brand in Kuala Selangor. However, due to COVID-19, the construction and start of operations&nbsp;have been delayed&nbsp;to the July-September quarter of this year.
“MeGroup continues to be invited to bid for new NVH and non-NVH projects for new car models from different automobile brands,” Wong said. “We’re also exploring new potential business opportunities and new service offerings in the dealership outlets.”
The Group is looking to grow beyond domestic shores. “We continually seek opportunities in ASEAN to drive growth through greenfield or strategic M&amp;A possibilities. With neighbouring markets expanding into the automotive sector, this offers opportunities for us to scale our operations,” he added.
To lay the foundation for sustainable growth, MeGroup will focus on investing in new manufacturing technologies, as well as the set-up and/or acquisition of research labs. This year, it became the only NVH supplier in Malaysia to build its own sound testing facility.
“The lab allows us to innovate and test our products before mass production. We will be able to rethink, reinvent and recreate our NVH and non-NVH components, so as to be at the forefront of technology, and stay ahead of our competitors.”
Cash-Generating
Meanwhile, the biggest near-term challenge – apart from continuous price competition – is COVID-19, Wong admitted.
“Our operations were frozen for nearly three months. Since then, about 70% of our sales and deliveries have resumed. We expect a tough outlook for the rest of the year, but hopefully, the beginnings of a recovery might materialise in the first quarter of next year,” he noted.
With this downtime, MeGroup has taken the opportunity to implement new methods of operating, such as boosting its online presence through social media platforms and other digital marketing strategies. It is also improving or streamlining work processes to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Industry peers have also upped the ante by slashing prices. “This is where our R&amp;D lab – which can provide us with in-house and proprietary technologies – comes in. This will set us apart from the competition.”
Other competitive strengths include MeGroup’s established network and long-standing working partnerships with its brand principals. “Our businesses are cash-generating, with stable recurring income streams and negligible collection issues,” Wong pointed out.
As at 31 March 2020, MeGroup had cash and cash equivalents of RM12.5 million, compared with RM16.9 million in the year-ago period.
“We strive to be asset-light, so we can generate faster ROI from our businesses, and maintain flexibility and liquidity to move into opportunities that may arise,” he added, referring to return on investment, a financial ratio that compares the gain or loss from an investment relative to its cost.
Despite the day-to-day challenges, the self-confessed workaholic sleeps like a log every night. “Work is what keeps me going,” he chuckled.
“I’ve tried to retire, but failed every time. It’s in my blood – I’m still kicking at 73, and if I don’t work, I feel sick!”
Nonetheless, the father of two boys and a girl – aged 37 to 44 – has put a proper succession plan in place. “My kids are working in MeGroup and running the show. Hopefully, it will be a smooth transition when they finally take over the reins.”
Whatever happens, Wong has taught his children to always remain focused. “I also want them to keep a low profile – be humble, don’t be a show-off, and concentrate on the things that matter.”
“Those are essentially the key principles of life.”
MeGroup Ltd
MeGroup is a component manufacturer and dealer in the automotive industry. Under its Manufacturing business, MeGroup specialises in manufacturing noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, primarily for the automotive industry in Malaysia. It has diversified into supplying NVH parts to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer. For its Dealership business, MeGroup owns and operates i) three Peugeot dealerships; ii) two Honda dealerships; iii) one Mazda dealership; iv) one Hyundai dealership; v) one Ford dealership; and vi) one Mitsubishi Motors dealership in Malaysia. MeGroup maintains long-standing partnerships with its manufacturing customers, and is an Approved Supplier to Proton, Perodua, Honda, Mazda among other major car makers, as well as Johnson Controls Hitachi. The Group also maintains established relationships with its dealership principals.
The company website is: <a href="https://me-grp.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">me-grp.com</a>. Click&nbsp;<a href="https://www.sgx.com/securities/equities/SJY" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>&nbsp;for the company's StockFacts page. For the year ended 31 March 2020 financial results, click&nbsp;<a href="https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/MeGroup%20Ltd_FY2020%20Financial%20Results%20Announcement_20200717.ashx?App=Announcement&amp;FileID=624068" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>.
&nbsp;
About&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew
Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file kopi-C&nbsp;is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations. For previous editions of&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew,&nbsp;please click&nbsp;<a href="http://edm.sgx.com/a/hBd-CspB86%24MfB90noBAABR54ZH/link10" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>. &nbsp; For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/jennifer.t@sgx.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jennifer.t@sgx.com</a>.


Megroup-CEO

Engineer Wong Cheong Chee is a man who appreciates his machines.&nbsp;
As a testament to this, the Executive Chairman and CEO of SGX-listed automotive component manufacturer and dealer MeGroup Ltd spent more than four decades of his career in manufacturing.
After graduating from the University of Malaya with a degree in Mechanical Engineering in 1970, Wong started off by learning the ropes of business on the factory floor.&nbsp;
"The early years were foundation years for me," the 73-year-old recalled. “Back in those days, I was always fiddling with mechanical parts. I came to understand the role that machines and automation played in the production process, and also learned to maintain or calibrate machines to fit the factory's production needs."
"You could say that by now, I know everything about machines, since I always talk to them," he added,&nbsp;tongue firmly in cheek.
In 1995, Wong co-founded Menang Nusantara Sdn Bhd in a burst of restless&nbsp;energy, shortly after a RM60 million turnover company he co-founded – Paragon Union Bhd – was listed on Bursa Malaysia. "After Paragon went public, I briefly toyed with the idea of retiring," he recalled.
But Wong – then 48 – couldn't sit still. "I was young and restless, and I wanted to keep working, so I started Menang Nusantara with a friend. I was betting on my years of industry experience and strong relationships with my customers to make this venture work."
Menang Nusantara was initially a pure manufacturing business, and later expanded to include a dealership arm to diversify its revenues.
The journey proved to be a bumpy one, but Wong has&nbsp;no regrets. "Over the years, we experienced numerous recessions in Malaysia, more than four or five. But we pulled through each and every one of them, because of teamwork,” he recalled.
“I remember one setback we faced – a factory fire in 2016. We were able to recover and rebuild the plant in just two months, thanks to the team."
Wong's consistent comebacks from his challenges has earned him the nickname of “phoenix” among his peers, in reference to the mythical bird that rises from the ashes each time in a cycle of rebirth and regeneration.
“The highlights of my 40-year journey were the occasions when I was able to pull myself out of the pit, emerging bigger and stronger from those turbulent times,” he added.
Prudent Management
Wong has also gleaned precious lessons from each experience – a key one being prudent cash flow management. "Your operations need to be sustainable, and for that to happen, cost controls are critical. To be able to tide through price wars and downturns, you must ensure you’re not overspending."
“And every day can be a challenge, because you don’t know what’s going to come, and you need to prepare yourself for battle.”
Another highlight, he discovered, was the cohesiveness of the MeGroup team, which played an essential role when it came to problem-solving.
“When you’re faced with a crisis and sleepless nights, it’s teamwork that makes a difference – when the team comes up with a consistent strategy and moves forward in one direction.”
Listed on SGX Catalist in October 2018 as MeGroup Ltd, the Group comprises two business divisions – Manufacturing and Dealership.&nbsp;For the full year ended 31 March 2020, MeGroup reported a revenue of RM245.8 million on a net profit of RM1.2 million.&nbsp;
Its Manufacturing unit specialises in Noise, Vibration and Harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, mostly for the automotive industry. NVH parts include headliners and engine outers that are incorporated into various sections of the automobile, such as dashboard, hood and boot, while non-NVH components include parcel trays and board assembly decks.
The Dealership business owns a portfolio of six automotive brands, ranging from Peugeot and Mazda to Hyundai and Honda, with eight dealership outlets, and one undergoing construction.
Although the outlook for Malaysia’s automotive industry has been clouded by the impact of COVID-19 and a weak economic backdrop, transportation remains a necessity. Even with new mobility solutions, the country still requires private vehicles, Wong pointed out.
Last year, the government announced plans to develop a third national car under the National Automotive Policy. MeGroup has registered its interest as a vendor to design and make NVH and non-NVH parts for the project – if it does materialise.
Reinvent, Recreate
At the same time, the Group is exploring other industries to broaden its revenues and achieve long-term sustainable growth. It is already supplying NVH components to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer.
“Our penetration into the HVAC industry will allow us to bring our manufacturing and production capabilities to other HVAC players,” Wong added.
“Another strategy is to increase the number of products MeGroup can manufacture with its current capabilities, and supply to other sectors, such as the mattress industry, and floor carpeting services for offices and hotels,” Wong noted.
Under its dealership arm, the Group plans to obtain new brand partnerships and acquire other existing dealerships to expand organically and inorganically.
One such move was its recent contract win from Mitsubishi Motors to operate a dealership under their brand in Kuala Selangor. However, due to COVID-19, the construction and start of operations&nbsp;have been delayed&nbsp;to the July-September quarter of this year.
“MeGroup continues to be invited to bid for new NVH and non-NVH projects for new car models from different automobile brands,” Wong said. “We’re also exploring new potential business opportunities and new service offerings in the dealership outlets.”
The Group is looking to grow beyond domestic shores. “We continually seek opportunities in ASEAN to drive growth through greenfield or strategic M&amp;A possibilities. With neighbouring markets expanding into the automotive sector, this offers opportunities for us to scale our operations,” he added.
To lay the foundation for sustainable growth, MeGroup will focus on investing in new manufacturing technologies, as well as the set-up and/or acquisition of research labs. This year, it became the only NVH supplier in Malaysia to build its own sound testing facility.
“The lab allows us to innovate and test our products before mass production. We will be able to rethink, reinvent and recreate our NVH and non-NVH components, so as to be at the forefront of technology, and stay ahead of our competitors.”
Cash-Generating
Meanwhile, the biggest near-term challenge – apart from continuous price competition – is COVID-19, Wong admitted.
“Our operations were frozen for nearly three months. Since then, about 70% of our sales and deliveries have resumed. We expect a tough outlook for the rest of the year, but hopefully, the beginnings of a recovery might materialise in the first quarter of next year,” he noted.
With this downtime, MeGroup has taken the opportunity to implement new methods of operating, such as boosting its online presence through social media platforms and other digital marketing strategies. It is also improving or streamlining work processes to increase efficiency and reduce operating costs.
Industry peers have also upped the ante by slashing prices. “This is where our R&amp;D lab – which can provide us with in-house and proprietary technologies – comes in. This will set us apart from the competition.”
Other competitive strengths include MeGroup’s established network and long-standing working partnerships with its brand principals. “Our businesses are cash-generating, with stable recurring income streams and negligible collection issues,” Wong pointed out.
As at 31 March 2020, MeGroup had cash and cash equivalents of RM12.5 million, compared with RM16.9 million in the year-ago period.
“We strive to be asset-light, so we can generate faster ROI from our businesses, and maintain flexibility and liquidity to move into opportunities that may arise,” he added, referring to return on investment, a financial ratio that compares the gain or loss from an investment relative to its cost.
Despite the day-to-day challenges, the self-confessed workaholic sleeps like a log every night. “Work is what keeps me going,” he chuckled.
“I’ve tried to retire, but failed every time. It’s in my blood – I’m still kicking at 73, and if I don’t work, I feel sick!”
Nonetheless, the father of two boys and a girl – aged 37 to 44 – has put a proper succession plan in place. “My kids are working in MeGroup and running the show. Hopefully, it will be a smooth transition when they finally take over the reins.”
Whatever happens, Wong has taught his children to always remain focused. “I also want them to keep a low profile – be humble, don’t be a show-off, and concentrate on the things that matter.”
“Those are essentially the key principles of life.”
MeGroup Ltd
MeGroup is a component manufacturer and dealer in the automotive industry. Under its Manufacturing business, MeGroup specialises in manufacturing noise, vibration and harshness (NVH) and non-NVH components, primarily for the automotive industry in Malaysia. It has diversified into supplying NVH parts to Johnson Controls Hitachi, a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) manufacturer. For its Dealership business, MeGroup owns and operates i) three Peugeot dealerships; ii) two Honda dealerships; iii) one Mazda dealership; iv) one Hyundai dealership; v) one Ford dealership; and vi) one Mitsubishi Motors dealership in Malaysia. MeGroup maintains long-standing partnerships with its manufacturing customers, and is an Approved Supplier to Proton, Perodua, Honda, Mazda among other major car makers, as well as Johnson Controls Hitachi. The Group also maintains established relationships with its dealership principals.
The company website is: me-grp.com.  Click&nbsp;here&nbsp;for the company's StockFacts page.  For the year ended 31 March 2020 financial results, click&nbsp;here.
&nbsp;
About&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew
Text: Jennifer LH Tan Photo: Company file  kopi-C&nbsp;is a regular column on the SGX Research website that features C-level executives of leading companies listed on Singapore Exchange. These interviews are profiles of senior management aimed at helping investors better understand the individuals who run these corporations.  For previous editions of&nbsp;kopi-C: the Company brew,&nbsp;please click&nbsp;here. &nbsp;  For more information, or if you would like your senior executives to be featured on SGX Market Dialogues, please send suggestions to&nbsp;jennifer.t@sgx.com.

MeGroup Revs Up Sustainable Growth Engines

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/266/original/2020-07-28_06-42-44.png?1595886197" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148266"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/148/267/original/2020-07-28_06-47-55.png?1595886499" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="148267"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koei-tecmo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20277:1" rel="noopener">Koei Tecmo (3635 JP)</a> - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/mio-kato-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:713" rel="noopener">Mio Kato</a>'s April Insight<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/koei-tecmo-plenty-of-headroom-to-play-with" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38880" rel="noopener"> Plenty of Headroom to Play With</a> called this correctly - "the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly." The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>40 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul>
<li>
Results Score: 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Results Score Change: -3.3</li>
<li>
Average % Change in Revenue: -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt</li>
<li>
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div> 19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul>
<li>
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative</li>
<li>
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative</li>
<li>
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.5</li>
</ul></div>


Source • Japan Analytics
Koei Tecmo (3635 JP) - Koei Tecmo produced the most-improved Results Score among large-cap companies yesterday. Colleague Mio Kato's April Insight Plenty of Headroom to Play With called this correctly - "the strength of Sangokushi Senryaku Ban and a strong game pipeline should help the company continue to outperform significantly." The shares are now Overbought, and the valuation has never been as extreme. A Results Score of 30 is 'perfection'. We would trim into any results-induced move above ¥3,500.
DAILY STATS
40 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 14 Positive / 0 Neutral / 26 Negative

Average Results Score Change: -3.3

Average % Change in Revenue: -10.6% Quarter YoY / -3.0% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.1ppt

Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 18%
 19 Annual • 12 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 6 Positive / 0 Neutral / 13 Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 2 Positive / 0 Neutral / 10 Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -11.5


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 27th July - Koei Tecmo, Nitto Denko, MMC, Stanley Electric, Exedy

Today Mitsubishi Motors released a set of rather shocking results, harsh-looking but still perhaps optimistic guidance and its new Mid-Term Business Plan – Small but Beautiful. We find the company’s current situation to be anything but beautiful given the deterioration of results in its key ASEAN market.

Today Mitsubishi Motors released a set of rather shocking results, harsh-looking but still perhaps optimistic guidance and its new Mid-Term Business Plan – Small but Beautiful. We find the company’s current situation to be anything but beautiful given the deterioration of results in its key ASEAN market.

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/068/original/2020-07-09_13-43-33.png?1594269841" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145068"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>WHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/095/original/2020-07-09_15-04-02.png?1594274675" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145095"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/101/original/2020-07-09_15-13-11.png?1594275216" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145101"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>KEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.<hr>• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/499/original/2020-07-12_12-55-49.png?1594526165" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145499"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/500/original/2020-07-12_13-13-53.png?1594527254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145500"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div><div class="content-caption"></div>CORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-express-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18582:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Express (9062 JP)</a>, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikon-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7117:1" rel="noopener">Nikon (7731 JP)</a> is negatively correlated. <hr>• THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/502/original/2020-07-12_13-22-12.png?1594527750" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145502"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/273/original/2020-07-10_16-08-25.png?1594364929" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145273"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>CITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/447/original/2020-07-12_10-58-45.png?1594519146" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145447"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source • Japan Analytics</div>FCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.<hr>In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eisai-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21001:1" rel="noopener">Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/448/original/2020-07-12_11-12-20.png?1594519955" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145448"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/145/617/original/2020-07-13_15-35-04.png?1594622118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="145617"></figure>Source • Japan Analytics
</div><div class="content-highlight">This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.</div>

Source • Japan AnalyticsWHAT CURRENCY RISK? - It seems rather old-fashioned to raise the topic of currency risk in relation to potential stressors on Japanese listed companies. Compared to the thirty-five years to 2015, the last five years have been a period of benign calm in the USD/JPY exchange rate, aided and abetted by the action of central banks to eliminate interest rates and the functioning of the bond markets. Most observers expect this currency stability regime to continue and COVID-19 has so far only seen one short 'blip' to ¥102.36 on 9th March.Source • Japan Analytics¥ BELOW 100 -  If we isolate only the 1,484 days in the last forty years when Yen has traded above ¥100, the average TOPIX index is 975. The three Yen 'peaks' we have highlighted above in 1995, 2011, and 2016 proved excellent entry points. The subsequent trough-to-peak performance was 43%, 139%, and 60%, respectively. The COVID-19-induced trough-to-peak is, so far, just 31%.Source • Japan AnalyticsKEY DRIVER - Nevertheless, for an increasingly-global Japan, the USDJPY exchange rate remains a key driver of earnings. With a lag of six months, the peaks and troughs of the USDJPY exchange rate have coincided with turning points in the earnings cycle as measured by our Results &amp; Revision Score. The six-month lag suggests that ignoring the impact of COVID-19, the exchange rate is mildly supportive of earnings momentum for the balance of 2020.• CORRELATION ANALYSIS •Source • Japan AnalyticsCORRELATIONS - Our analysis of the currency risk of specific companies will be in two parts. The first and simplest is to examine the long-term positive and negative correlations of each listed larger-capitalisation company against the US dollar and Euro for the split-adjusted share price. This analysis will yield some surprising results, including the positive US Dollar correlation of Nippon Express (9062 JP), while Nikon (7731 JP) is negatively correlated. • THE FOREIGN CURRENCY TRANSLATION ADJUSTMENT •Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA - The second part is perhaps more abstruse, however but is a more accurate estimation of the actual currency risk embedded in the business model.  The Foreign Currency Translation Adjustment (FCTA) is part of Other Comprehensive Income and has been disclosed in Japanese GAAP-based balance sheets and income statements since 2001 and 2011, respectively to measure the extent of each company's global business and the embedded currency risk. The correlation of the aggregate FCTA for all non-financial companies is, as would be expected, reasonably tight. As these amounts are directly deducted from Net Assets for companies adopting JGAAP and from Shareholders' Equity for those companies reporting under SEC or IFRS standards, the impact on valuations cannot be ignored. For example, the decline in the US dollar from ¥123 to ¥101 in 2016 resulted in a six-quarter ¥53 trillion negative FCTA adjustment, 65% of the gap between Net Income and CITC over that period.Source • Japan AnalyticsCITC &amp; NET INCOME - Comprehensive Income adds a series of adjustments to Net Income to reflect as-yet-unrealised changes from currency translations, securities valuation differences, pensions, and deferred hedges. These adjustments are subsequently 'recycled' as and when realisations occur. In aggregate over the last seven years, Comprehensive Income has exceeded Net Income by a cumulative ¥56 trillion or 7%. However, as Comprehensive Income is inherently a more volatile data series, it is eschewed or overlooked by most analysts despite the direct impact on Shareholders' Equity. Nevertheless, Comprehensive Income illustrates that, as a result of increased globalisation and investments in marketable securities, the underlying earnings of Japanese corporates have become riskier than is implied by Net Income. In 2017, the FCTA resulted in an aggregate loss for Comprehensive Income to Common (CITC) and a corresponding decline in Shareholders' Equity for non-financial Japanese companies.  In the last two reported quarters, the 'gap' between Net Income and CITC has begun to widen again as both Valuation Differences and the FCTA have turned negative.Source • Japan AnalyticsFCTA BY SECTOR - Two-thirds of the total absolute FCTA over the last seven years comes from seven Sectors - Autos, Wholesale, Electrical Equipment, Technology Hardware, Machinery, Other Consumer Products and Telecommunications (Softbank Group). The least-exposed Sectors are Services, IT &amp; Internet, Multi-Industry and Restaurants.In the DETAIL section below, we shall look at the Accumulated Balance Sheet Foreign Currency Adjustments where Eisai Co Ltd (4523 JP) and Dic Corp (4631 JP) have the most significant amounts of positive and negative Accumulated FCTA's relative to Equity, respectively.
Source • Japan Analytics
This Part 6 concludes our Stress Test series. However, forthcoming Insights will look at the Valuation Differences component of Other Comprehensive Income and those companies with the most substantial CITC/Net Income 'gaps'.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Stress Tests Part 6: Currency Risk

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

NISSAN SHATAI CO., LTD. develops, designs, and assembles automobiles including sedans, Recreational Vehicles(RV), station wagons, and buses for Nissan Motor. The Company also manufactures parts for motor vehicles.

The Yokohama Rubber Company Limited produces rubber products including automobile tires, tubes, and conveyor belt for industrial use.  The Company also produces golf clubs and passenger aircraft parts such as restroom units and tanks for drinking water.

KOITO MANUFACTURING CO., LTD. produces lighting equipments for automobiles such as head and tail lights, rear combination lamps, and fog lamps.  The Company has  its production facilities in Japan, the US, the UK, Czech, China, Thailand, Taiwan, and India.  Koito Manufacturing also manufactures electronics parts for aircrafts including lighting equipments and oil pressure gauges.

Stanley Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures lighting equipment including head lights, HID (High Intensity Discharge) assist lamps, and rear combination lamps for automobiles.  The Company also produces LCD (Liquid Cristal Display) and LED (Light Emitted Diode) lamps for communication equipment, office automation equipment, and information displays.

NGK SPARK PLUG Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets spark plugs for automobiles, motorcycles, agricultural machinery, ships, and aircrafts.  The Company also makes ceramic products for semiconductor and telecommunication equipment. NGK Spark Plug markets its products under the NGK and NTK brand names and has subsidiaries in the US, Canada, France, Germany, and South Korea.

NIFCO INC. manufactures synthetic resinous fasteners and plastic components for automobiles and home electronic appliances.  The Company has its subsidiaries in Korea, Hong Kong, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, and the US.

NOK CORPORATION manufactures oil seals and industrial rubber products for automobiles.  The Company also produces electronic equipment used for cellular phones and PCs.  NOK has production facilities in Taiwan and Thailand.

Sumitomo Rubber Industries, Ltd. manufactures automobile and motorcycle tires, industrial rubber products and sports equipment.  The Company's products include golf balls, tennis rackets, rubber gloves, and artificial turf. Sumitomo Rubber sells its products under Dunlop brand around the world.

Toyo Tire Corporation manufactures and markets rubber and chemical goods.  The Company's products include motor vehicle tires, aluminum alloy wheels, office equipment parts, heat resistant board, and automobile parts such as bumpers and air bag systems.  Toyo Tire & Rubber has its  subsidiaries in the  US, Australia, Canada, Germany, and China.

Harley-Davidson, Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells motorcycles.  The Company's products include heavyweight touring, custom, and performance motorcycles, as well as a line of motorcycle parts, accessories, and general merchandise.  Harley-Davidson also provides motorcycle floor planning and parts and accessories financing to its North American and European dealers.

FAW Jiefang Group Co., Ltd, through joint ventures, manufactures and markets cars and auto parts.  The Company produces automobiles, transmission systems, and engines.  FAW Car also provides auto repair and customizing services.

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited develops, manufactures, and markets mini cars, mini sedans, full size sedans, and engines.

Chongqing Changan Automobile Company (200625 CH)

Thor Industries, Inc. produces and sells a wide range of recreation vehicles.  The Company markets its products through independent dealers located throughout the United States and Canada.  Thor's products are sold under the Airstream Classic, Dutchmen, Skamper, Infinity, Four Winds, Citation, Signature, and other names.

Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets bus and truck chassis, gear boxes, other auto parts, and business automobiles.

Yadea Group is a leading electric two wheeler brand in China. The company produces electric bikes and scooters.

Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi AS manufactures cars and automobile parts under license from Fiat.  The Group also imports Alfa Romeo and Fiat cars for domestic market and provides financing services.

BAIC Motor Corporation Limited designs, researches, develops, manufactures and sells a variety of passenger vehicles in China.

Brilliance China Automotive Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes minibuses and sedans in the People's Republic of China.  The Company also manufactures and trades automotive components.

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

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