ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Private Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Private Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> have finally announced that they will merge to form GoTo Group, in what will be Indonesia's largest-ever business deal to date. The new GoTo Group will also seek a dual listing both in Jakarta and the US but it is yet unclear what shape the listing will take at this stage. </p>
<p>This will create an Indonesia-focused digital powerhouse with exposure to Ride-Hailing, Food Delivery, Digital Payments, Digital Finance, and e-commerce, making it a formidable player in Indonesia's booming digital economy.</p>
<p>The merged entity will present a challenge, not just to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> and its Shopee platform but more pertinently for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab,</a> which is in the process of seeking a listing in the US through the largest SPAC listing to date.</p>
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<p>One key area of overlap between <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia</a> is on digital payments, where GoPay and OVO compete head-on. Given that Tokopedia holds a 36.1% stake in OVO, it is unclear what comes next although it is likely Tokopedia will look to migrate its customers to GoPay and sell its stake in OVO.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek </a>has already stepped up its move into the digital banking space through the recent increase in its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-jago-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31094:1" rel="noopener">Bank Jago (ARTO IJ)</a> to 22% but it also has strong backers for GoPay in the shape of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/facebook-inc-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:665:1" rel="noopener">Facebook Inc A (FB US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paypal-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4747:1" rel="noopener">Paypal Holdings (PYPL US).</a></p>
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<p>The combined entity will be a huge enabler for MSMEs from food providers to small businesses and as a result, will likely get significant support from the Indonesian government. </p>
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<p>There will be significant synergies between the two companies in areas such as deliveries, payments, and financial services, with an ever-increasing use-case for GoPay.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener"></a>The combined size of the two companies would be around US$18bn under the latest valuations but it is suggested that it could command a valuation of US$40bn with a US listing, although it is not yet sure what shape or form that listing will take although its looks likely it will be a dual listing by the end of this year.</p>
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<p>A straight IPO rather than a SPAC listing would be the most straightforward and the preferred option, even if it takes a bit longer to execute. The merged entity will be a more formidable adversary for other digital players and especially <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> but also for Shopee (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US))</a>,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lazada-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26148:1" rel="noopener">Lazada Group (LAZADA SP)</a>, and Bukalapak.</p>
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Gojek and Tokopedia have finally announced that they will merge to form GoTo Group, in what will be Indonesia's largest-ever business deal to date. The new GoTo Group will also seek a dual listing both in Jakarta and the US but it is yet unclear what shape the listing will take at this stage. 
This will create an Indonesia-focused digital powerhouse with exposure to Ride-Hailing, Food Delivery, Digital Payments, Digital Finance, and e-commerce, making it a formidable player in Indonesia's booming digital economy.
The merged entity will present a challenge, not just to Sea Ltd (SE US) and its Shopee platform but more pertinently for Grab, which is in the process of seeking a listing in the US through the largest SPAC listing to date.

One key area of overlap between Gojek and Tokopedia is on digital payments, where GoPay and OVO compete head-on. Given that Tokopedia holds a 36.1% stake in OVO, it is unclear what comes next although it is likely Tokopedia will look to migrate its customers to GoPay and sell its stake in OVO.
Gojek has already stepped up its move into the digital banking space through the recent increase in its stake in Bank Jago (ARTO IJ) to 22% but it also has strong backers for GoPay in the shape of Facebook Inc A (FB US) and Paypal Holdings (PYPL US).


The combined entity will be a huge enabler for MSMEs from food providers to small businesses and as a result, will likely get significant support from the Indonesian government. 


There will be significant synergies between the two companies in areas such as deliveries, payments, and financial services, with an ever-increasing use-case for GoPay.
The combined size of the two companies would be around US$18bn under the latest valuations but it is suggested that it could command a valuation of US$40bn with a US listing, although it is not yet sure what shape or form that listing will take although its looks likely it will be a dual listing by the end of this year.


A straight IPO rather than a SPAC listing would be the most straightforward and the preferred option, even if it takes a bit longer to execute. The merged entity will be a more formidable adversary for other digital players and especially Grab (0967655D SP) but also for Shopee (Sea Ltd (SE US)),  Lazada Group (LAZADA SP), and Bukalapak.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.</p>

As long as market dynamics remain largely positive and the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we believe a constructive outlook is warranted. To reiterate, support levels to watch include $90 on ACWI-US, $53 on ACWX-US, and $52 on EEM-US. Open the attached file to read our complete International Strategy document, and to find links to detailed comments and recommendations for each of our 12 Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.</p>

After Japan's earthquake automobile makers had a lot to worry about, since they were already faced with critical semiconductor shortages.  Now unusually bad weather has hit much of the US, and has stopped chip production in three important fabs in Austin, Texas.  This Insight explores the winners and losers in this series of events.

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

<p>Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.</p>

Saturday's 7.1 earthquake in Japan could have caused important supply disruptions for semiconductors.  We reached out to over a dozen companies to check their status, and those who replied indicated that there was little impact.  Still, the automotive sector has reason to be nervous.

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-05/apple-talks-with-hyundai-kia-on-electric-car-paused-recently" target="_blank" rel="noopener">talks with Hyundai have been paused</a> so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.</p>

There has been a lot of newsprint lately regarding Apple seeking partners to tie-up with to produce EVs. Bloomberg reports discussion with at least six automakers including Hyundai and Japanese manufacturers, though timelines for launch are still far out at about five years. Bloomberg’s latest report suggests that talks with Hyundai have been paused so the question is whether one of the Japanese automakers might step in instead.

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

Japan

MITSUBISHI MOTORS CORPORATION develops and manufactures passenger cars and its related parts.  The Company has production facilities in Japan, the US, and Thailand.  Mitsubishi Motors Corp provides vehicle-related financing and leasing service through its subsidiary.

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Mitsubishi Motors (7211 JP)

GoTo - Enter the Green Dragon

The confirmation of the merger between Gojek and Tokopedia creates an Indonesian digital powerhouse under GoTo Group, which will seek a dual...

Angus Mackintosh

Global Equity Strategy: Constructive Pullback; Overweight Value

As long as the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EM (EEM-US) indexes are above their respective intermediate-term support levels we...

Vermilion Research

Texas Weather Deals Second Blow to Automotive Chip Supply Chain

A chip shortage is preventing the automotive industry from returning to full volume. Meanwhile Japan's earthquake and bad weather in Texas are...

Jim Handy

Japan Quake and Chip Shortages, Tough on Auto?

Will Saturday's Japan earthquake further disrupt the semiconductor supply chain? Early reports seem tame enough, but automobile manufacturers are...

Jim Handy

Does an Apple Tie-Up Make Sense for J-Autos?

In the search for potential suitors for Apple's entry into the EV space we examine the likelihood of the major Japanese auto manufacturers...

Mio Kato

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