Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Silicon carbide chips and new electric vehicles are dominating the news in deep value space, highlighting Rohm, Honda, and Aisin.</li>
<li>We also highlight some juicy dividends that we think need to be taken seriously by growth managers.</li>
<li>This round-up is provided for thought provocation only. Comprehensive deep-dive analysis available to clients on request. </li>
</ul>


Silicon carbide chips and new electric vehicles are dominating the news in deep value space, highlighting Rohm, Honda, and Aisin.
We also highlight some juicy dividends that we think need to be taken seriously by growth managers.
This round-up is provided for thought provocation only. Comprehensive deep-dive analysis available to clients on request. 


Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Shinko Electric Industries / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday about 5 minutes before the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP)</a> went into kehai, rising 8.6%, then falling back to end + 3% on the day. </li>
<li>This morning, the stock opened down 2%, rose 4%, fell 4%, then rose 4%. All in the first 45 minutes. Then it fell back 4% and ended down 2% today.</li>
<li>The proximate cause of all of this was a <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/mitsubishi-corp-considering-bid-fujitsus-chip-unit-shinko-electric-sources-2023-10-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Reuters article</a> out 5mins before the close yesterday suggesting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20668:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP)</a> is considering bidding for Shinko Electric.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday about 5 minutes before the close, Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) went into kehai, rising 8.6%, then falling back to end + 3% on the day. 
This morning, the stock opened down 2%, rose 4%, fell 4%, then rose 4%. All in the first 45 minutes. Then it fell back 4% and ended down 2% today.
The proximate cause of all of this was a Reuters article out 5mins before the close yesterday suggesting Mitsubishi Corp (8058 JP) is considering bidding for Shinko Electric.


Shinko Electric (6967) Update - MitCorp In The Mix?

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keiyo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14415:1" rel="noopener">Keiyo (8168 JP)</a> and the department store <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/606/original/2020-09-30_06-18-07.png?1601414298" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162606"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/162/607/original/2020-09-29_06-15-33.png?1601414581" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="162607"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics</div><div>
<hr>
DAILY STATS
</div><hr><div>16 Quarterly Results</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative</li>
<li>Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points</li>
<li>Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div>15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative</li>
<li>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative</li>
<li>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points</li>
</ul></div>

• BEST &amp; WORST •Our best and worst pair is home centre Keiyo (8168 JP) and the department store J Front Retailing (3086 JP) although the latter is seeing an improvement in earnings momentum.Source fr all charts and tables: Japan Analytics

DAILY STATS
16 Quarterly Results
Results Score: 50% Positive / 6% Neutral / 44% Negative
Average Results Score Change: -0.9 points
Average % Change in Revenue: -6.3% Quarter YoY / -4.2% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -2.9ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 19%
15 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions
Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 33% Positive / 0% Neutral / 67% Negative
Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 14% Positive / 14% Neutral / 72% Negative
Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -3.8 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/139/255/original/2020-06-11_08-36-54.png?1591832240" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="139255"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-who-s-swimming-naked-part-2-altman-z-score" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:37316" rel="noopener"> Swimming Naked?</a> Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nissan-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:72:1" rel="noopener">Nissan Motor (7201 JP)</a> which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rakuten-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31:1" rel="noopener">Rakuten (4755 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/z-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19603:1" rel="noopener">Z Holdings (4689 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/softbank-group-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:315:1" rel="noopener">Softbank Group (9984 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sony-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1" rel="noopener">Sony (6758 JP)</a>- have been excluded from this analysis.

Source: Japan AnalyticsSTRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through the current euphoria and assess where business risk is concentrated among larger Japanese companies. According to Tokyo Shoko Research, 171 listed Japanese firms have raised nearly ¥10 trillion in new funds to weather COVID-19.ALTMAN Z-SCORES - The first Insight will update our earlier Who's Swimming Naked? Insight and focus on the Altman Z-Score as updated for the most recent quarterly results for both manufacturing and non-manufacturing companies.  In each category, ee will look at both the companies that are below Altman's 'distress' levels and those companies that have the most significant negative deviation from their seven-year average score. Only six of the bottom-thirty manufacturing and five of the bottom-thirty manufacturing companies have outperformed over one year. Many are already Oversold and offer potential value opportunities -as with Nissan Motor (7201 JP) which is now as distressed as when Carlos Ghosn first arrived.  QUASI-FINANCIAL FIRMS - The Z-Score methodology does not work for financial firms. Accordingly, five non-financial companies which have significant financial subsidiaries -  Rakuten (4755 JP), Z Holdings (4689 JP), Japan Post (6178 JP), Softbank Group (9984 JP) and Sony (6758 JP)- have been excluded from this analysis. 

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India, Yellowstone Equity

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Equity L/S Analyst | Forensic Accounting | India

Forensic Accounting

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow
<ol>
<li>Forensic Analysis Framework</li>
<li>Excel Model
<ol>
<li>How to Download and Use the Tool</li>
<li>Steps to Run the Model</li>
</ol>
</li>
<li>Target Universe</li>
<li>Companies with Highest Accounting Risk </li>
<li>Summary Statistics from our Analysis</li>
<li>Key Model Limitations and Risks</li>
<li>Appendix
<ol>
<li>List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8</li>
<li>Glossary</li>
<li>Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe</li>
<li>Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel</li>
<li>Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin</li>
</ol>
</li>
</ol>
<div class="content-highlight">
What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.
</div>

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use 25+ accounting parameters in our framework to come up with an accounting risk score. Our tool is based in Excel and is linked dynamically to Capital IQ for fetching latest data.
Insight Flow

Forensic Analysis Framework
Excel Model

How to Download and Use the Tool
Steps to Run the Model


Target Universe
Companies with Highest Accounting Risk 
Summary Statistics from our Analysis
Key Model Limitations and Risks
Appendix

List of Companies in our Target Universe with Accounting Risk Score &gt;= 8
Glossary
Snapshot of Capital IQ Screener Used for Filtering Universe
Switch Formula Calculation Option in Excel
Refresh Worksheet Option in Capital IQ Plugin




What's Original?
Over time with experience and taking cues from past financial shenanigans, we have developed a proprietary quantitative framework for identifying accounting irregularities. This framework comprises of 25+ accounting parameters and takes into account 10 years of historical data to assess the quality of accounting.


A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

Japan

MITSUBISHI MATERIALS CORPORATION manufactures and processes non-ferrous metals such as copper, zinc, lead, gold, and silver.  The Company also produces other products such as cement, aluminum cans, silicon, fine chemicals, and electronic materials.  Ube Industries, an affiliate, sells cement products.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mitsubishi Materials (5711 JP)

Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

New product launches could be the start of a deluge of Silicon carbide-based chips that improve performance and reduce costs of high-powered...

Michael Allen

Shinko Electric (6967) Update - MitCorp In The Mix?

Shinko Electric Industries' stock experienced significant fluctuations after reports emerged that Mitsubishi Corp is considering a bid for the...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Unloved Japan Roundup: Rohm, Honda, Aisin, Jtekt

New product launches could be the start of a deluge of Silicon carbide-based chips that improve performance and reduce costs of high-powered...

Michael Allen

Shinko Electric (6967) Update - MitCorp In The Mix?

​Shinko Electric Industries' stock experienced significant fluctuations after reports emerged that Mitsubishi Corp is considering a bid for the...

Travis Lundy

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito

• BEST & WORST • DAILY STATS 9 Quarterly Results Results Score: 44% Positive / 22% Neutral / 34% Negative Average Results Score...

Campbell Gunn

🇯🇵 JAPAN - Stress Tests Part 1 - Altman Z-Scores

STRESS TESTS - This Insight is the first in a series that will use a variety of standard and less-frequently used 'stress-tests' to look through...

Campbell Gunn

A Forensic Analysis Tool for Detecting Accounting Red Flags: Focus on Developed Asia

In this Smartkarma Original, we bring to you a forensic analysis tool that scores companies across Developed Asia on their accounting risk. We use...

Ankit Agrawal, CFA

Shinko Electric Industries' stock experienced significant fluctuations after reports emerged that Mitsubishi Corp is considering a bid for the...

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/29 - Home Centres <> Depāto, Sugi, Mitsubishi Materials, Koito