Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Japan's top defense and aerospace contractor is being rerated to account for the limits on relying on the U.S. for defense in an alarming national security environment.</li>
<li>A reasonably optimistic scenario brings MHI's P/E ratio down to 22X in FY Mar-28, by which time Japan's defense spending is scheduled reach 2% of GDP.</li>
<li>The Trump administration wants Japan to spend more, but getting the budget through the national Diet is difficult enough as it is. </li>
</ul>


Japan's top defense and aerospace contractor is being rerated to account for the limits on relying on the U.S. for defense in an alarming national security environment.
A reasonably optimistic scenario brings MHI's P/E ratio down to 22X in FY Mar-28, by which time Japan's defense spending is scheduled reach 2% of GDP.
The Trump administration wants Japan to spend more, but getting the budget through the national Diet is difficult enough as it is. 


MHI (7011 JP): U.S. Presses Japan to Spend More on Defense

<ul>
<li>MHI shot up 13% on U.S. election day, but dropped back this morning. A degree of optimism is warranted, but there are negatives as well as positives.</li>
<li>Full year FY-Mar-25 orders guidance has been raised, but the increase came in Energy, not Aircraft, Defense &amp; Space, and total orders are still likely to be down this year.</li>
<li>An increase in defense orders can be expected, however, as Trump forces Japan to take more responsibility for its own defense. Hold or buy for the long term.</li>
</ul>


MHI shot up 13% on U.S. election day, but dropped back this morning. A degree of optimism is warranted, but there are negatives as well as positives.
Full year FY-Mar-25 orders guidance has been raised, but the increase came in Energy, not Aircraft, Defense &amp; Space, and total orders are still likely to be down this year.
An increase in defense orders can be expected, however, as Trump forces Japan to take more responsibility for its own defense. Hold or buy for the long term.


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>MHI reports impressive YoY growth in order intake, revenues, and profits across Energy Systems and Defense Equipment segments in Q2 2023.</li>
<li>Despite a 62% YTD stock price increase, strong order backlog and underlying drivers suggest resilience in a challenging economic climate.</li>
<li>The company benefits from global trends in decarbonization and increased national security spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas turbines and defense technology.</li>
</ul>


MHI reports impressive YoY growth in order intake, revenues, and profits across Energy Systems and Defense Equipment segments in Q2 2023.
Despite a 62% YTD stock price increase, strong order backlog and underlying drivers suggest resilience in a challenging economic climate.
The company benefits from global trends in decarbonization and increased national security spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas turbines and defense technology.


<ul>
<li>MHI remains our top pick on the energy transition in Japan and globally</li>
<li>The new next-gen nuclear reactor will be a significant improvement on the current technology and help Japan to become carbon neutral</li>
<li>We believe the stock is a bargain at book value and should be picked up on any correction</li>
</ul>


MHI remains our top pick on the energy transition in Japan and globally
The new next-gen nuclear reactor will be a significant improvement on the current technology and help Japan to become carbon neutral
We believe the stock is a bargain at book value and should be picked up on any correction


Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011) | New Nuclear Deal

<ul>
<li>The next leader of Japan's ruling LDP, who will almost certainly become prime minister in October, will probably not make major changes to the nation's defense policy.</li>
<li>Guidance remains unchanged after 1Q results that suggest the possibility of a better than expected order flow but also a material negative impact from a stronger yen.</li>
<li>MHI's valuation is not yet in speculative territory, but neither is it compelling. If the yen remains stable, we expect the share price to test its recent highs.</li>
</ul>


The next leader of Japan's ruling LDP, who will almost certainly become prime minister in October, will probably not make major changes to the nation's defense policy.
Guidance remains unchanged after 1Q results that suggest the possibility of a better than expected order flow but also a material negative impact from a stronger yen.
MHI's valuation is not yet in speculative territory, but neither is it compelling. If the yen remains stable, we expect the share price to test its recent highs.


MHI (7011 JP): Election Unlikely to Affect Defense Budget

Japan

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. is a comprehensive heavy machinery maker. The Company manufactures machinery, ships, turbines and engines, prime movers, aircrafts, and machine parts for military and commercial use.  Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also researches and develops nuclear power plants.

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Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011 JP)

MHI (7011 JP): U.S. Presses Japan to Spend More on Defense

Up 40% in the past month, but still reasonably valued on a 3-year view if Japan's defense spending rises and margins expand as expected. 22X...

Scott Foster

MHI (7011): Trump 2.0 a Net Positive

Trump's return forces Japan to look out for number one - good for MHI, Japan's top defense contractor. Orders guidance has been raised slightly....

Scott Foster

MHI (7011) | Rockets and Renewables

MHI reports strong growth in Q2 2023, benefiting from global trends in decarbonization and defense spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011) | New Nuclear Deal

MHI's next-gen nuclear reactor will be a significant improvement on the current technology and help Japan to become carbon neutral.

Mark Chadwick

MHI (7011 JP): Election Unlikely to Affect Defense Budget

At 28x earnings, MHI is not speculative, but neither is it cheap. We expect it to test recent highs in the run-up to the LDP party presidential...

Scott Foster

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

MHI (7011 JP): U.S. Presses Japan to Spend More on Defense

Up 40% in the past month, but still reasonably valued on a 3-year view if Japan's defense spending rises and margins expand as expected. 22X...

Scott Foster

MHI (7011): Trump 2.0 a Net Positive

Trump's return forces Japan to look out for number one - good for MHI, Japan's top defense contractor. Orders guidance has been raised slightly....

Scott Foster

MHI (7011) | Rockets and Renewables

​MHI reports strong growth in Q2 2023, benefiting from global trends in decarbonization and defense spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas...

Mark Chadwick

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011) | New Nuclear Deal

MHI's next-gen nuclear reactor will be a significant improvement on the current technology and help Japan to become carbon neutral.

Mark Chadwick

MHI (7011 JP): Election Unlikely to Affect Defense Budget

At 28x earnings, MHI is not speculative, but neither is it cheap. We expect it to test recent highs in the run-up to the LDP party presidential...

Scott Foster

MHI reports strong growth in Q2 2023, benefiting from global trends in decarbonization and defense spending, positioning itself as a leader in gas...