'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

<div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/163/original/2019-03-17_07-32-23.png?1552775594" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82163"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the fifty-day moving average, last breached to the downside six months ago, the market needs fresh catalysts. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/164/original/2019-03-17_07-54-56.png?1552777022" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82164"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>BOJ IS BACK - After almost a one-month hiatus, the Bank of Japan resumed purchases of exchange-traded funds, intervening four times in the last nine trading days. Further intervention is to be expected as the market adjusts to the continuing stream of weak macro data.  <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/082/165/original/2019-03-17_08-15-44.png?1552778203" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="82165"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THANK YOU, MIZUHO - <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/219" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1">Mizuho' s (8411 JP)</a> ¥680b retail branch, software and foreign bond write down, and net profit forecast of ¥80b for FY 2018 has resulted in the market composite forecast for net income falling to ¥43.6t, 5.6% below the November peak. Forecast net income is now 1.2% below the level of one year ago, and seven sectors' forecasts are more than 10% lower than a year ago.   MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Machinery, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on the Auto sector,  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1411" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1411:1">Sumitomo Realty (8830 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4508" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4508:1">Sekisui House (1928 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3294" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3294:1">Pigeon (7956 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8723" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8723:1">Fuji Seal (7864 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3548" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3548:1">Kawasaki Kisen (9107 JP)</a>


Source: Japan Analytics
SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the fifty-day moving average, last breached to the downside six months ago, the market needs fresh catalysts. Source: Japan AnalyticsBOJ IS BACK - After almost a one-month hiatus, the Bank of Japan resumed purchases of exchange-traded funds, intervening four times in the last nine trading days. Further intervention is to be expected as the market adjusts to the continuing stream of weak macro data.  Source: Japan AnalyticsTHANK YOU, MIZUHO - Mizuho' s (8411 JP) ¥680b retail branch, software and foreign bond write down, and net profit forecast of ¥80b for FY 2018 has resulted in the market composite forecast for net income falling to ¥43.6t, 5.6% below the November peak. Forecast net income is now 1.2% below the level of one year ago, and seven sectors' forecasts are more than 10% lower than a year ago.   MARKET/SECTOR STRATEGY- We continue to recommend an underweight position in Japan in global portfolios and favour undervalued domestically-orientated companies in the Information Technology, Internet, Media, Transportation, Healthcare and Telecommunications sectors. We would avoid or short the financial sectors Banks, Non-Bank Finance and Multi-Industry. We would underweight the Auto, Machinery, Retail and Other Consumer Products sectors as consumer spending contracts further in the US, Europe, China and Japan. In the DETAIL section below, we will review Sector performance, company results, revisions and stock performance over the previous two weeks, as well as adding some brief comments on the Auto sector,  Sumitomo Realty (8830 JP), Sekisui House (1928 JP), Pigeon (7956 JP), Fuji Seal (7864 JP), and Kawasaki Kisen (9107 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Reverse Gear

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3:1">Aeon (8267 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/5262" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5262:1">Aeon Mall (8905 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/565" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:565:1">Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/566" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:566:1">Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)</a> as well as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway (9020 JP)</a> – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14271" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14271:1">East Japan Railway</a>.

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market overall.
The top 100 SCs had average sales densities of ¥86,230 per sqm per month, compared to ¥50,833 per sqm per month for the sector overall, showing the stark contrast in performance between the best SCs (and the better developers) and the rest.
The improvement in sales by outlet malls after a retreat in 2016-17 was the big story in SC retailing last year – among the top 30 SCs by sales growth, 10 were outlet malls and all posted growth of more than 5% compared to just a single SC in 2016.
A number of developers look set to continue to perform better compared to the SC sector overall, at least in terms of tenant revenues and shopping centre operating profits: Aeon (8267 JP), Aeon Mall (8905 JP), Mitsui Fudosan (8801 JP), and Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP) as well as East Japan Railway (9020 JP) – 12 of the top 30 most efficient SCs in the country are operated by East Japan Railway.

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/623" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:623:1">NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP)</a> have oft-wondered why <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4221" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4221:1">NTT Urban Development (8933 JP)</a> was left as a virtual 'orphan', left to conduct its business without quite as much input as one might have hoped, and since the GFC, a thorn in the side of owners who thought it should be done better, differently, by a different owner, with bigger ambitions. Today, NTT - which owns 67.3% of the real estate developer/leaser - <a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2018/1810e/pdf/181015a.pdf" target="_blank">announced</a> (<a href="http://www.ntt.co.jp/news2018/1810/pdf/181015a.pdf" target="_blank">J</a>) that it wanted to buy in the 27.7% of NTT Urban that it did not own through a Tender Offer to start October 16th and run 30 business days through November 27th.The price offered is ¥1680/share, which is a 29.8% premium to today's close (28.6% vs Friday), a 31.6% premium to the 1-month average, and 39.2% and 39.8% to the 3-month and 6-month averages to Friday. It is also a 5-year high price and other than a single day May 13th 2013 (just before the first 'Abenomics bubble' burst a week later) - where the shares closed at ¥1688 - the Tender Offer Price is at 10-year high.The deal is subject to a 'two-step' process whereby after a tender offer, NTT will seek to squeeze out minorities. If NTT gets to 90%, there will be a share cash-out demand by NTT to NTT Urban, who will then oblige remaining minorities to sell their shares. If at the end of the tender, NTT owns more than two-thirds of the shares outstanding but less than 90%, NTT will call for Urban to hold an EGM to vote on a consolidation (reverse share split) of shares where odd lots get cashed out. The result of that would be that all minorities would also be cashed out, but it will take longer. The trick here is that NTT already owns more than two-thirds so this is a fait accompli. There is no minimum share tender required to make it successful, and strictly speaking, NTT needs no shares to squeeze out minorities from here.It's all over but the shouting. Even before it starts. <table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr><td colspan="2"><h2> Schedule of Tender Offer </h2></td></tr>
<tr>
<td> Event </td>
<td>Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Announcement Date </td>
<td>15-Oct-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Start Date </td>
<td>16-Oct-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Closing Date </td>
<td>27-Nov-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td> Payment Date </td>
<td>4-Dec-18</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Likely Squeeze Out if &gt;90%</td>
<td>early January 2019</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>More below.

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of NTT (Nippon Telegraph &amp; Telephone) (9432 JP) have oft-wondered why NTT Urban Development (8933 JP) was left as a virtual 'orphan', left to conduct its business without quite as much input as one might have hoped, and since the GFC, a thorn in the side of owners who thought it should be done better, differently, by a different owner, with bigger ambitions. Today, NTT - which owns 67.3% of the real estate developer/leaser - announced (J) that it wanted to buy in the 27.7% of NTT Urban that it did not own through a Tender Offer to start October 16th and run 30 business days through November 27th.The price offered is ¥1680/share, which is a 29.8% premium to today's close (28.6% vs Friday), a 31.6% premium to the 1-month average, and 39.2% and 39.8% to the 3-month and 6-month averages to Friday. It is also a 5-year high price and other than a single day May 13th 2013 (just before the first 'Abenomics bubble' burst a week later) - where the shares closed at ¥1688 - the Tender Offer Price is at 10-year high.The deal is subject to a 'two-step' process whereby after a tender offer, NTT will seek to squeeze out minorities. If NTT gets to 90%, there will be a share cash-out demand by NTT to NTT Urban, who will then oblige remaining minorities to sell their shares. If at the end of the tender, NTT owns more than two-thirds of the shares outstanding but less than 90%, NTT will call for Urban to hold an EGM to vote on a consolidation (reverse share split) of shares where odd lots get cashed out. The result of that would be that all minorities would also be cashed out, but it will take longer. The trick here is that NTT already owns more than two-thirds so this is a fait accompli. There is no minimum share tender required to make it successful, and strictly speaking, NTT needs no shares to squeeze out minorities from here.It's all over but the shouting. Even before it starts. 
 Schedule of Tender Offer 

 Event 
Date


 Announcement Date 
15-Oct-18


 Start Date 
16-Oct-18


 Closing Date 
27-Nov-18


 Payment Date 
4-Dec-18


Likely Squeeze Out if &gt;90%
early January 2019

More below.

NTT (9432 JP) Buyout of NTT Urban (8933 JP). FINALLY.

<ul class="">
<li>Leading shopping centres in Japan recovered well in FY2017 after a tough 2016, with most forms of tenant posting better sales. 
</li>
<li>While accessories, sports and eateries did as well as expected, apparel also had a much better year compared to the tough trading in 2016.</li>
<li>Station/fashion buildings that moved to a more premium position outperformed the sector, reflecting the continued growth in incomes and assets among affluent Japanese.</li>
<li>The improvement overall reflects the better sentiment among consumers, but equally, the continued shift of spending from other forms of retail (like GMS stores) to the better shopping centres. 
</li>
<li>So far, apart from a 2.8% drop in May, sales have been positive in FY2018 too, with apparel again doing much better than in recent years, suggesting an upturn for some fashion retailers.</li>
<li>As well as sales growth, major SC developers have also become much more adept at extracting higher profits from their facilities, and we expect this trend to continue.</li>
</ul>


Leading shopping centres in Japan recovered well in FY2017 after a tough 2016, with most forms of tenant posting better sales. 

While accessories, sports and eateries did as well as expected, apparel also had a much better year compared to the tough trading in 2016.
Station/fashion buildings that moved to a more premium position outperformed the sector, reflecting the continued growth in incomes and assets among affluent Japanese.
The improvement overall reflects the better sentiment among consumers, but equally, the continued shift of spending from other forms of retail (like GMS stores) to the better shopping centres. 

So far, apart from a 2.8% drop in May, sales have been positive in FY2018 too, with apparel again doing much better than in recent years, suggesting an upturn for some fashion retailers.
As well as sales growth, major SC developers have also become much more adept at extracting higher profits from their facilities, and we expect this trend to continue.


Japan Shopping Centre Sales Grow Again in 2017-18

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Cheap on a gross profit basis, good price momentum, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector</li><li>Raised launch value target for 2018 by 30% should drive presales further, 1Q18 saw presales up by 168% YoY</li><li>More low-rise project launches should pay off as AP has proven to be successful in this segment, gross margin expansion of almost 4 ppts in 1Q18 YoY at strong low-rise presales</li><li>Attractive at 18CE* 12.8% ROE/PB versus Thai Real Estate at 3.5% and AP offers a nice 4.3% dividend yield</li><li>Risks: Project delays and increasing competition</li></ul>* Consensus Estimates

Cheap on a gross profit basis, good price momentum, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sectorRaised launch value target for 2018 by 30% should drive presales further, 1Q18 saw presales up by 168% YoYMore low-rise project launches should pay off as AP has proven to be successful in this segment, gross margin expansion of almost 4 ppts in 1Q18 YoY at strong low-rise presalesAttractive at 18CE* 12.8% ROE/PB versus Thai Real Estate at 3.5% and AP offers a nice 4.3% dividend yieldRisks: Project delays and increasing competition* Consensus Estimates

AP (AP TB): Raised Property-Launch Target in 2018 and Nice Dividend Yield

Japan

Mitsubishi Estate Company Ltd. invests in real estate properties in Japan.  The Company leases, manages, and develops commercial buildings in central Tokyo. Mitsubishi Estate also develops and sells residential properties and parking lots and manages recreational facilities including golf courses and tennis clubs.

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Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan • Fortnightly Update - Reverse Gear

SIDEWAYS - Japanese equities have gove up half of their late-February gains in US dollar terms over the last two weeks. Poised just 1.7% above the...

Campbell Gunn

Japan's Top 100 Shopping Centres Outperforming: Who Owns What

The average growth among the top 100 shopping centres (SCs) in Japan in 2017-18 was 2.6% compared to 2.3% for the shopping centre market...

Michael Causton

NTT (9432 JP) Buyout of NTT Urban (8933 JP). FINALLY.

Those who have been steady observers of the capital structure of NTT (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone) (9432 JP) have oft-wondered why NTT Urban...

Travis Lundy

Japan Shopping Centre Sales Grow Again in 2017-18

Leading shopping centres in Japan recovered well in FY2017 after a tough 2016, with most forms of tenant posting better sales. While...

Michael Causton

AP (AP TB): Raised Property-Launch Target in 2018 and Nice Dividend Yield

Cheap on a gross profit basis, good price momentum, and more attractive to analysts relative to its sector Raised launch value target for 2018 by...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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