Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we explore Mitsubishi Estate, who is the second largest real estate company in terms of market cap</li>
<li>Mitsubishi Estate major business is in office (Tokyo CBD), residential/condo, as well as some retail and hotel</li>
<li>Japan stock market is upbeat and saw the largest inflow among Asia YTD.  8802 valuation is not demanding.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we explore Mitsubishi Estate, who is the second largest real estate company in terms of market cap
Mitsubishi Estate major business is in office (Tokyo CBD), residential/condo, as well as some retail and hotel
Japan stock market is upbeat and saw the largest inflow among Asia YTD.  8802 valuation is not demanding.


8802 Mitsubishi Estate - Another Play on Japan RE and Office - Chase the Rally

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.</li>
<li>Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.</li>
<li>Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.</li>
</ul>


Echoes of August with Japan looking to start the day very weak on the lead from US semi related.
Expect heavy selling for recent retail margin favourites e.g. Mercari, IHI, KHI and Socionext, and SPE winners such as Kokusai and Advantest, although the sector will start under heavy pressure.
Nothing from Nikkei Inc. yet on their NKY225 rebalance decision, but expect outsized volatility today with many multi-strategy pods shuttered during the August sell off.


Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

<ul>
<li>Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.</li>
<li>Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sumitomo-forestry-co-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sumitomo Forestry</a> rebound off yesterdays weak price action.</li>
<li>Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.</li>
</ul>


Good retailer numbers and outlooks by Target and TJX setting a positive tone for the likes of Mercari on the read for consumer spending.
Toll Bros numbers from the day before lifting US Homebuilders should see the likes of Sumitomo Forestry rebound off yesterdays weak price action.
Japanese R/E names look increasingly vulnerable to downside ahead of Ueda's speech tomorrow which should point to a BoJ trajectory for future rate hikes.


Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100U45I.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2024-07-29T08%3A22%3A26Z&amp;se=2029-07-30T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=X40vp7lhAgBEyEZOwezOlfvKZ1e%2FyjZkQLMnZs1gx%2FI%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.05% position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heiwa-real-estate-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:749:1" rel="noopener">Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP)</a>. The shares were purchased from 24 May to 22 July.</li>
<li>Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY3,907.38, a 6.7% discount to the last close price. Recently, Simplex (the previous largest shareholder) sold its entire stake to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taisei-co-ltd-aichi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3079:1" rel="noopener">Taisei Co Ltd (4649 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate the latter.</li>
</ul>


Murakami's entity, City Index Eleventh, and daughter reported a 5.05% position in Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP). The shares were purchased from 24 May to 22 July.
Murakami's average buy-in price is JPY3,907.38, a 6.7% discount to the last close price. Recently, Simplex (the previous largest shareholder) sold its entire stake to Taisei Co Ltd (4649 JP).
Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate the latter.


Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Japan

Mitsubishi Estate Company Ltd. invests in real estate properties in Japan.  The Company leases, manages, and develops commercial buildings in central Tokyo. Mitsubishi Estate also develops and sells residential properties and parking lots and manages recreational facilities including golf courses and tennis clubs.

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Mitsubishi Estate (8802 JP)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

8802 Mitsubishi Estate - Another Play on Japan RE and Office - Chase the Rally

Japan saw the biggest inflow among Asia and the equity market is strong. 8802 is another interesting play if investor wants to get exposure in...

Jacob Cheng

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

8802 Mitsubishi Estate - Another Play on Japan RE and Office - Chase the Rally

Japan saw the biggest inflow among Asia and the equity market is strong. 8802 is another interesting play if investor wants to get exposure in...

Jacob Cheng

Japan Morning Connection: Expect Volatility with Retail and SPE Stocks Under Pressure

​Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Andrew Jackson

Japan Morning Connection: Mercari, Sumitomo Forestry, Anritsu

​Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...

Andrew Jackson

Heiwa Real Estate (8803 JP): Murakami Becomes a Substantial Shareholder

Murakami's disclosure suggests two possibilities: the start of an activist campaign or a short-term pump-and-dump play. Recent precedents indicate...

Arun George

Japan's market set to open weak following US semi-related lead, heavy selling expected for retail margin favorites and SPE winners, potential...

Positive retail numbers from Target and TJX bode well for consumer spending, while Toll Bros' strong performance lifts Homebuilders. Japanese R/E...