IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Toshiba-buyout-Japanese-fund-submits-15bn-proposal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei Asia</a> reports that JIP has submitted a formal proposal to privatise <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> for about JPY2.2 trillion (US$15 billion) based on “<em>Toshiba's current share price.</em>” </li>
<li>JIP’s offer is below expectations of around a JPY6,000 bid which is likely driven by the inability to secure sufficient debt financing. JIP remains in negotiations with banks. </li>
<li>While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers' current price ratio is attractive. </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei Asia reports that JIP has submitted a formal proposal to privatise Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) for about JPY2.2 trillion (US$15 billion) based on “Toshiba's current share price.” 
JIP’s offer is below expectations of around a JPY6,000 bid which is likely driven by the inability to secure sufficient debt financing. JIP remains in negotiations with banks. 
While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers' current price ratio is attractive. 


Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.</li>
<li>If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.</li>
<li>I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.</li>
</ul>


Three interviews and comments by Senior Toshiba Boardmembers (chairperson and head of Special Committee) and the CEO prep the ground for a full company deal, or no deal.
If no deal, there's downside to the 5yr average Toshiba/Peers ratio. If you see 50% deal probability, at mid ¥6000s or better, IRRs are OK. But there is jump risk.
I don't see the activists just deciding to bail en masse if no deal. I think they take it further, which means I think the Board wants a deal.


Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

<ul>
<li>Since late June when I recommended to not be long Toshiba vs Peers, Toshiba has fallen 9.5% vs Peers (-6% on its own and an equal-weighted Peer Basket is +3.9%).</li>
<li>If one assumes the likelihood of a privatisation has not gone down, and the likely takeout price is the same, back-end adjusted, probability-adjusted IRRs are up 6-8%, to decent levels.</li>
<li>This changes my recommendation from Bearish to Probability-Adjusted Bullish, but it is nuanced, and it is still a range trade.</li>
</ul>


Since late June when I recommended to not be long Toshiba vs Peers, Toshiba has fallen 9.5% vs Peers (-6% on its own and an equal-weighted Peer Basket is +3.9%).
If one assumes the likelihood of a privatisation has not gone down, and the likely takeout price is the same, back-end adjusted, probability-adjusted IRRs are up 6-8%, to decent levels.
This changes my recommendation from Bearish to Probability-Adjusted Bullish, but it is nuanced, and it is still a range trade.


Toshiba (6502) Update - No Longer Worthwhile to Be Short Toshiba Vs Peers

<ul>
<li>Overnight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> has released an <a href="https://www.global.toshiba/content/dam/toshiba/ww/ir/corporate/news/20220719_2.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">update</a> "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  </li>
<li>Nikkei <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Toshiba-in-turmoil/Japan-Industrial-Partners-Bain-advance-in-bidding-for-Toshiba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.</li>
<li>Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). </li>
</ul>


Overnight, Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) has released an update "Progress Report on Discussions with Potential Investors and Sponsors. Four advance to the second round, including both PE and strategic investors.  
Nikkei reported those advancing were Bain, CVC, Brookfield, and JIP-JIC. Blackstone did not advance. Yesterday, Reuters reported that KKR had declined to bid, but might join another bid.
Now parties will start due diligence, and Toshiba will examine bids for "measures to enhance corporate value" and certainty of execution (given national security-sensitive issues, and funding). 


Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mercari-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27149:1" rel="noopener">Mercari Inc (4385 JP)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokyo-stock-exchange-tokyo-price-index-topix" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22910:1" rel="noopener">Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX)</a> at the close on 28 July.</li>
<li>There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.</li>
<li>We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).</li>
</ul>



Mercari Inc (4385 JP) will be added to the Tokyo Stock Exchange Tokyo Price Index Topix (TPX INDEX) at the close on 28 July.
There are a lot of FFW changes, mainly reductions. This leads to large funding inflows on the large index stocks.
We estimate the inclusion of Mercari and the FFW changes will lead to a one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a one-way trade of JPY 442.23bn (US$3.25bn).


TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Japan

Mitsubishi Electric Corporation develops, manufactures, and markets electronic equipment.  The Company's products include industrial machinery, heavy electric machinery, data communications systems, electronic devices, and consumer electronics.

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Mitsubishi Electric (6503 JP)

Toshiba (6502 JP): JIP Lobs a Lower-Than-Expected Offer

While there is a risk that JIP will be unable to improve its offer to secure Board approval, the downside is low as Toshiba/peers' current price...

Arun George

Toshiba (6502 JP) Getting Closer to Crunch Time So Ongoing News "Leaks" Likely

Bidders are approaching 2nd Round deadlines, and news/comments are starting to seep out. Expect more. I expect a decision at/after H1 results. If...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Update - No Longer Worthwhile to Be Short Toshiba Vs Peers

The IRR to be obtained by buying Toshiba and expecting Probability X% of a Privatisation and (1-X%) of no deal has gone up sharply since end-June....

Travis Lundy

Toshiba (6502) Update - Shares Down Since Last Look, "News" Isn't Really. IRR Grid.

Toshiba (6502) is -8% vs Peer Basket after the late June pop on a "¥7,000 deal." Semi/memory peers weaker while industrials better. That lifts IRR...

Travis Lundy

TOPIX July Rebalance: Mercari Inclusion, FFW Changes, US$6.5bn To Trade

Mercari will be added to the TPX at the close on 28 July. There are a lot of FFW changes that will result in one-way turnover of 0.56% leading to a...

Brian Freitas

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