ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grab-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab Holdings (GRAB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cisarua-mountain-dairy-pt-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34999:1" rel="noopener">Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ammb-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:137:1" rel="noopener">AMMB Holdings (AMM MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sheng-siong-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6824:1" rel="noopener">Sheng Siong (SSG SP)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, a sector insight on Malaysian Banks, and a credit insight on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/delta-dunia-makmur-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9334:1" rel="noopener">Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.</li>
</ul>


The past week saw insights on Sea Ltd (SE US), Grab Holdings (GRAB US), Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ), AMMB Holdings (AMM MK), and Sheng Siong (SSG SP).
There were also macro insights on Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, a sector insight on Malaysian Banks, and a credit insight on Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID IJ).
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Scale, Cimory's Dairy Recovery, and AMMB Placement

Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ihh-healthcare-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:876:1" rel="noopener">IHH Healthcare (IHH MK)</a> reports 11% YoY increase in 4Q23 revenue, due to higher patient volumes and revenue intensity across all markets, with all business segments and markets registering growth.</li>
<li>4Q23 EBITDA remained flat at RM1.1B and PATMI (excluding extraordinary income) fell 22% YoY.</li>
<li>The company remains on track to add close to 4,000 beds across all its major markets, including Malaysia, India, Europe, and Hong Kong to its existing 12,000 beds by 2028.</li>
</ul>



IHH Healthcare (IHH MK) reports 11% YoY increase in 4Q23 revenue, due to higher patient volumes and revenue intensity across all markets, with all business segments and markets registering growth.
4Q23 EBITDA remained flat at RM1.1B and PATMI (excluding extraordinary income) fell 22% YoY.
The company remains on track to add close to 4,000 beds across all its major markets, including Malaysia, India, Europe, and Hong Kong to its existing 12,000 beds by 2028.


IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Patient Volume Driven Revenue Growth in 4Q; Profitability Remains Subdued

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Tower Bersama Infrastructure / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index ended on 29 December. The changes should be announced in the last week of January, becoming effective after the close on 31 January.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
The impact of passive trading will be higher on the deletions than the inclusions since lower liquidity stocks are replaced with higher liquidity stocks.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Ministry of Health stated that recent pneumonia cases in Jakarta should not cause concerns, as they are detectable and curable. </li><li>Some hospital operators indicated case increases among children in Nov23, with pediatric cases contributing 10-20% of revenues.</li><li>HEAL remains our Top Pick on its mother and children specialty with pediatric cases contributing 15-20% of revenues</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Ministry of Health stated that recent pneumonia cases in Jakarta should not cause concerns, as they are detectable and curable. Some hospital operators indicated case increases among children in Nov23, with pediatric cases contributing 10-20% of revenues.HEAL remains our Top Pick on its mother and children specialty with pediatric cases contributing 15-20% of revenuesContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Healthcare: Not the Case of a Pandemic Outbreak (OVERWEIGHT)

<ul><li>We expect the sector’s earnings in FY24 to hinge on cost efficiency, as top line growth will still depend on the shift towards more BPJS volume.</li><li>Healthcare has historically benefited from election spending; we expect next govt to sustain healthcare budget allocation at 5-6% to APBN.</li><li>We maintain OW rating as we expect sector to sustain earnings growth at 13.2% in FY24F while valuation is at discount to regional peers.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We expect the sector’s earnings in FY24 to hinge on cost efficiency, as top line growth will still depend on the shift towards more BPJS volume.Healthcare has historically benefited from election spending; we expect next govt to sustain healthcare budget allocation at 5-6% to APBN.We maintain OW rating as we expect sector to sustain earnings growth at 13.2% in FY24F while valuation is at discount to regional peers.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indonesia

Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk PT engages in hospital management and business services. The Company operates hospitals located in the Greater Jakarta Area, Surabaya and Tegal.

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Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat Tbk (MIKA IJ)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Scale, Cimory's Dairy Recovery, and AMMB Placement

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Patient Volume Driven Revenue Growth in 4Q; Profitability Remains Subdued

IHH Healthcare reported 11% YoY revenue growth to RM5.5 billion in 4Q23, driven by higher patient volumes and revenue intensity across all...

Tina Banerjee

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Healthcare: Not the Case of a Pandemic Outbreak (OVERWEIGHT)

The Ministry of Health stated that recent pneumonia cases in Jakarta should not cause concerns, as they are detectable and curable. Some hospital...

BRI Danareksa Research

Healthcare: FY24 Outlook

We expect the sector’s earnings in FY24 to hinge on cost efficiency, as top line growth will still depend on the shift towards more BPJS volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - Sea Ltd's Scale, Cimory's Dairy Recovery, and AMMB Placement

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

IHH Healthcare (IHH MK): Patient Volume Driven Revenue Growth in 4Q; Profitability Remains Subdued

​IHH Healthcare reported 11% YoY revenue growth to RM5.5 billion in 4Q23, driven by higher patient volumes and revenue intensity across all...

Tina Banerjee

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (Jan): Reading the Tea Leaves

There could be 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in January. The potential adds have performed well while the potential deletes are trading...

Brian Freitas

Healthcare: Not the Case of a Pandemic Outbreak (OVERWEIGHT)

The Ministry of Health stated that recent pneumonia cases in Jakarta should not cause concerns, as they are detectable and curable. Some hospital...

BRI Danareksa Research

Healthcare: FY24 Outlook

We expect the sector’s earnings in FY24 to hinge on cost efficiency, as top line growth will still depend on the shift towards more BPJS volume.

BRI Danareksa Research

IHH Healthcare reported 11% YoY revenue growth to RM5.5 billion in 4Q23, driven by higher patient volumes and revenue intensity across all...