ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. </li>
<li>Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa</a> remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. </li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) has revealed more detail on the impact of boycotts stemming from the Gaza conflict on some of its brands, most notably Starbucks but also including Zara. 
Management remains upbeat about the outlook for the expansion of new retail outlets across its brand portfolio in Indonesia and Southeast Asia but has reduced guidance for Starbucks. 

Mitra Adiperkasa remains the best proxy for Indonesian retail with any weakness in the share price an opportunity, with valuations remaining attractive. 


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Less Seasonal Cheer, More New Year's Resolutions

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. </li>
<li>The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. </li>
<li>MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.</li>
</ul>



Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) finished the year with strong sales growth of +17.4% YoY in 4Q2023 with solid growth across all segments and improving margins. 
The company continues to add to its 150-strong brand portfolio in Indonesia, as well as extending its reach further in Southeast Asia and growing its omnichannel capabilities. 
MAPI remains our top retail pick in Indonesia with its focus on the resilient upper-middle segment in Indonesia and increasing regional exposure. Valuations remain attractive at 12.5x FY2024E PER.


Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Pushing Retail Boundaries

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>We reiterate our BUY call on MAPI with an unchanged TP of IDR2,300 (-0.5SD of its 4-normal years PE-target at 17.4x) as we maintain our FY23F earnings estimate of IDR2.2tn driven by 17.4% topline growth with +16.4% yoy opex growth.</li><li>We also assume a lower gross margin of 43.9% stemming from MAPI’s strategy to selectively adjust its selling prices to maintain sales volume.</li><li>MAPI remains our top pick in the sector.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

We reiterate our BUY call on MAPI with an unchanged TP of IDR2,300 (-0.5SD of its 4-normal years PE-target at 17.4x) as we maintain our FY23F earnings estimate of IDR2.2tn driven by 17.4% topline growth with +16.4% yoy opex growth.We also assume a lower gross margin of 43.9% stemming from MAPI’s strategy to selectively adjust its selling prices to maintain sales volume.MAPI remains our top pick in the sector.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) - Looking Beyond the Archipelago

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gudang-garam-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:722:1" rel="noopener">Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitra-adiperkasa-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18684:1" rel="noopener">Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/timah-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11174:1" rel="noopener">Timah Persero (TINS IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japfa-comfeed-indonesia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8258:1" rel="noopener">Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ)</a> in the LQ45 Index next week.</li>
<li>There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </li>
<li>There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.</li>
</ul>



Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) and Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) will replace Timah Persero (TINS IJ) and Japfa Comfeed Indonesia (JPFA IJ) in the LQ45 Index next week.
There are some large changes to free float plus capping changes for Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ) and Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 
There could be jumps in the stocks of the adds/deletes today, though there should be pre-positioning and a potential reversal later in the week.


​​​LQ45 Index Rebalance: Two Changes in a Few Days

Indonesia

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk engages in the retail business for several types of products such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, household appliances, and management consulting services.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk operates department stores in Indonesia which sell items such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, and daily needs. Its department stores are known as Ramayana, Robinson, and Cahaya.

PT Multipolar Tbk imports, trades, distributes, retails, and services computers and related products. The Company provides computer equipment rental, informatics engineering, and management services. Multipolar, through its subsidiaries, also provides share administration services.

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk retails sporting goods. The Company operates an online portal that offers a wide range boots, shoes, sandals, shorts, caps, hoodies, and accessories. Map Aktif Adiperkasa serves customers in Indonesia.

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk operates in the retail telecommunication business.  The Company operates retail stores in cities throughout Indonesia that offer a wide range of branded cellular phones.

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

PT Golden Retailindo Tbk operates department stores.  The Company retails men's, women's and children's clothing, shoes, cosmetics and fragrances, watches, and other products.

PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk assembles, and distributes automobiles, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company provides automotive maintenance, financing, and rental services.  Indomobil also trades used cars.

Golden Eagle Retail Group Limited operates department stores in China. The Company's stores target mid-range and high-end market segments in China, and contain various functions and amenities such as dining, entertainment, beauty and personal care, cinemas, and preschool education in addition to their core function as an international department store.

Lotte Shopping Co., Ltd. operates department stores and discount stores in South Korea.  The Company retails clothing, household goods, foods and other items through several branches.  Lotte Shopping also operates supermarkets and movie theaters.

Tianjin Quanye Bazaar (Group) Co., Ltd. owns and operates department stores and supermarkets, as well as sells general merchandise on a wholesale basis. Tianjin Quanye also provides storage and cargo delivery services, and invests in real estate and interior decoration businesses.

Far Eastern Department Stores Ltd. operates department stores in Taiwan. The Company sells clothing, household appliances, groceries, and home furnishing products.

Far Eastern Department Stores Ltd (2903 TT)

Beijing Urban-Rural Trade Centre Co. Ltd. operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also provides food and entertainment services, as well as develops real estate.

Beijing Urban Rural Trade Centre Co. (600861 CH)

Xian International Medical Investment Co Ltd is principally engaged in the medical services industry.

Xian International Medical Invest (000516 CH)

Seria Co., Ltd. operates 100 yen chain stores nationwide.   The Company also operates franchise business.  Seria's main product line includes household goods and snacks.

IZUMI CO., LTD. operates shopping centers mainly in the Chugoku area, selling food products, clothing, and household utensils.  The Company also operates real estate business and credit card services.

Poya International Co., Ltd. operates the chain retail stores through Taiwan.  The Company carries personal care products, housewares, small appliances, stationeries, and snacks.

Chongqing Department Store Co., Ltd. operates retail stores in Chongqing.  The Company also operates a wholesale business.

Chongqing Department Store Co. (600729 CH)

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

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Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ)