Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TCOM/HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism - OTA platform DAU remain lackluster, weak year end travel demand (-)</li>
<li>MNSO: Korea’s top dollar store chain Daiso buys out Japanese shareholder (-)</li>
<li>9995HK：Harbour BioMed have signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer of a mesothelin (MSLN) antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) (-) </li>
</ul>


TCOM/HTHT/ATAT: China Tourism - OTA platform DAU remain lackluster, weak year end travel demand (-)
MNSO: Korea’s top dollar store chain Daiso buys out Japanese shareholder (-)
9995HK：Harbour BioMed have signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Pfizer of a mesothelin (MSLN) antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) (-) 


[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;</li>
<li>We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;</li>
<li>We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.</li>
</ul>


MNSO’s FY23 SEHK filing updated its operation metrics post C2Q23, where domestic was in-line but overseas beat our estimates. We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;
We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;
We maintain BUY and raise TP by US$4.5 to US$30.5 to factor in the profitability ramping up of oversea businesses.


[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.</li>
<li>$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).</li>
</ul>


In our two previous Int'l Compass reports (Aug. 18 &amp; 24) we discussed that we were buyers on the pullback to the major $93 support level on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US).
$93 on ACWI is 1+ year base support and a level that coincides with the 10-month uptrend. We remain bullish as long as the ACWI-US is above $93.
$93 on ACWI-US is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield and DXY can stay below respective resistance levels (4.3%-4.35% and $103.70-$105.70).


Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

Analyst

Steve

Pop Mart International Group L / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pop-mart-international-group-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29016:1" rel="noopener">Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK)</a> presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). </li>
<li>A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/miniso-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29673:1" rel="noopener">Miniso (MNSO US)</a>, and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. </li>
<li>Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   </li>
</ul>



Pop Mart International Group L (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas (at least in the short-term). 
A recent case of a Chinese brand achieving success overseas is Miniso (MNSO US), and shareholders of Miniso have been richly rewarded. 
Pop Mart trades at a PE of 24x based on estimated 2024 earnings, with around 30% expected net profit growth in 2024E.   


Pop Mart (9992 HK):  Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

<ul>
<li>C2Q23 revenue (1.9%)/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, its non-GAAP NI is 18.5%/18.3% higher than estimate/consensus. 1) GPM improvement from revenue mix ; 2) less than expected OPEX from IP licensing fee. </li>
<li>We think Miniso’s strategy to open more flagship stores is in-line with its brand upgrade strategy for seeking price premium beyond value-for-money, which bodes well for its long-term brand value. </li>
<li>We maintain Buy rating and maintain TP at US$26. We raise 2024 EPADS by 6.4% to project lower OPEX with efficiency improvement.</li>
</ul>


C2Q23 revenue (1.9%)/2.6% vs. our estimate/consensus, its non-GAAP NI is 18.5%/18.3% higher than estimate/consensus. 1) GPM improvement from revenue mix ; 2) less than expected OPEX from IP licensing fee. 
We think Miniso’s strategy to open more flagship stores is in-line with its brand upgrade strategy for seeking price premium beyond value-for-money, which bodes well for its long-term brand value. 
We maintain Buy rating and maintain TP at US$26. We raise 2024 EPADS by 6.4% to project lower OPEX with efficiency improvement.


[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$26) Review]: Strong Demand Support Further Store Openings

China

MINISO Group Holding is a value retailer with a focus on offering products that are aesthetically pleasing, good-quality, and affordable.

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Miniso (MNSO US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Pop Mart (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas.

Steve

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$26) Review]: Strong Demand Support Further Store Openings

We think Miniso’s strategy to open more flagship stores is in-line with its brand upgrade strategy for seeking price premium beyond value-for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]: TCOM/HTHT/ATAT/MNSO/9995 HK/XPEV

​China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Miniso (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$30.5) TP Change]: Progress in America Bodes Well for International

We attribute this performance to direct store expansion in North America;We raise 2024/25 top line by 14%/19% and operating profit by 22%/25%;We...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Further Declines in DXY, Sovereign Yields May Provide More Fuel for a Rally in Global Equities

We continue to believe $93 on $ACWI is likely the low for this pullback as long as the 10-year Treasury yield $TNX and $DXY can stay below their...

Vermilion Research

Pop Mart (9992 HK): Short-Term Trading Opportunity On International Expansion

Pop Mart (9992 HK) presents an interesting story of a Chinese domestic brand going overseas, and potentially being successful overseas.

Steve

[Miniso Group (MNSO US, BUY, TP US$26) Review]: Strong Demand Support Further Store Openings

We think Miniso’s strategy to open more flagship stores is in-line with its brand upgrade strategy for seeking price premium beyond value-for...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

China's tourism OTA platform sees low user activity and weak year-end travel demand. Korea's Daiso acquires Japanese shareholder. Harbour BioMed...