HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.</li>
<li>The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.</li>
<li>Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.</li>
</ul>


While AI has had a profound impact in image recognition,there has been little comparable progress in drug discovery, far from the current levels of investment and expectations in this sector.
The success of license-in model must be based on the appropriate valuation level. The ultimate parameter to measure a drug company based on license-in model is its cash flow status.
Pet medical equipment is not subject to the negative policy impact of centralized procurement. Together with high demand, it is expected to become the second growth curve of enterprises.


China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/microport-scientific-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4487:1" rel="noopener">Microport Scientific (853 HK)</a>’s 2021 performance missed expectations. </li>
<li>Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.</li>
<li>Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.</li>
</ul>


Due to the centralized procurement in PRC market and decreasing volume of operations in overseas markets during pandemic, Microport Scientific (853 HK)’s 2021 performance missed expectations. 
Even if Microport could finally digest the negative impact of centralized procurement, its “unique” development mode would still put pressure and uncertainties on future performance/outlook, leading to lower-than-expected results.
Our earnings estimate of Microport in 2022 could be about HK$-1.7, and revenue estimate could be about HK$7.3 billion. It’s quite possible that the Company will not end up profitable.


Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Equity Capital Markets

OrbusNeich Medical Group Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orbusneich-medical-group-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34918:1" rel="noopener">OrbusNeich Medical Group (NEICHZ HK)</a> has a rich pipeline with a leadership position in the PCI balloon markets.</li>
<li>Its global business layout would also help the Company “hedge” the negative domestic policy impact or regulation changes.</li>
<li>However, the fierce competition, market pattern, industry characteristics, centralized procurement and other concerns should not be neglected.</li>
</ul>



OrbusNeich Medical Group (NEICHZ HK) has a rich pipeline with a leadership position in the PCI balloon markets.
Its global business layout would also help the Company “hedge” the negative domestic policy impact or regulation changes.
However, the fierce competition, market pattern, industry characteristics, centralized procurement and other concerns should not be neglected.


Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

<ul>
<li>Shanghai Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau issued a policy that TAVR consumables would be reimbursed according to surgery performance, breaking the bottleneck of low demand due to the expensive TAVR surgery.</li>
<li>The COVID nucleic acid testing industry faces the problem of exit, because it is very difficult to find a corresponding scale of replacement business for these huge capacity accumulated.</li>
<li>In terms of the internationalization prospects of China biotech companies, we prefer to pick RemeGen. The same logic also applies to Keymed.</li>
</ul>


Shanghai Municipal Medical Insurance Bureau issued a policy that TAVR consumables would be reimbursed according to surgery performance, breaking the bottleneck of low demand due to the expensive TAVR surgery.
The COVID nucleic acid testing industry faces the problem of exit, because it is very difficult to find a corresponding scale of replacement business for these huge capacity accumulated.
In terms of the internationalization prospects of China biotech companies, we prefer to pick RemeGen. The same logic also applies to Keymed.


China Healthcare Weekly (May.27) - New TAVR Policy, Exiting Issue of COVID Testing, RemeGen/Keymed

<ul>
<li>Last week, the focus of the 2022 Volume-Based Purchase (VBP) was finalized. We summarized the key points and major VBP projects to be promoted this year.</li>
<li>For IVD companies that seize the golden COVID-19 testing opportunity, they have already accumulated large amount of cash flow. It means M&amp;A opportunities but also bubbles in the industry. </li>
<li>The market value of a lot of medical device companies in HKEX has already been very small. Is the market overly pessimistic?</li>
</ul>


Last week, the focus of the 2022 Volume-Based Purchase (VBP) was finalized. We summarized the key points and major VBP projects to be promoted this year.
For IVD companies that seize the golden COVID-19 testing opportunity, they have already accumulated large amount of cash flow. It means M&amp;A opportunities but also bubbles in the industry. 
The market value of a lot of medical device companies in HKEX has already been very small. Is the market overly pessimistic?


China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.15)- 2022 VBP Focus, Post-COVID IVD Outlook, Undervalued Medical Device

China

Microport Cardioflow Medtech Corporation develops and sells medical devices. The Company manufactures and sells vitaflow aortic valve system, alwide balloon catheter, and other products. Microport Cardioflow Medtech markets its products throughout China.

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Microport Cardioflow Medtech (2160 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Aug.12)-AI Drug Discovery, License-In Mode Valuation, Pet Medical Equipment

AI drug discovery is far from meeting the current investment level and expectations. The success of license-in mode must be based on appropriate...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Microport Scientific (853.HK)-The “unique” Development Mode Leads to Lower-Than-Expected Performance

Microport’s 2021 performance missed expectations due to VBP and pandemic. Its “unique” development mode will lead to lower-than...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO OrbusNeich Medical Group - The Industry, the Business and the Concerns

The rich pipeline and large global business will help OrbusNeich “hedge” negative domestic policy impact. But fierce competition, slow progress in...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (May.27) - New TAVR Policy, Exiting Issue of COVID Testing, RemeGen/Keymed

New TAVR policy will break the low demand bottleneck due to high cost; COVID testing industry faces the problem of exit; Remegen/Keymed may have...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China Healthcare Weekly (Apr.15)- 2022 VBP Focus, Post-COVID IVD Outlook, Undervalued Medical Device

The focus of 2022 VBP was finalized. In post-COVID era, how would cash-rich IVD companies with find new growth point?After continuous pullback,...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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