Founder and Strategist, Entext Economics & Strategy

Sean Maher

Founder and Strategist

Entext Economics & Strategy

Entext provides institutional investors with distinctive, actionable asset allocation and thematic research, which typically challenges the market consensus. Our clients range from credit, equity and multi-asset hedge and pension funds to family offices and sovereign funds. 
 
We focus on identifying key inflection points in macro data and relative asset performance amid the 'groupthink'  and confirmation bias that characterizes most investment bank analysis.

Macro Driven Investment Insight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s weak guidance last week and Q2 shipment downgrades for Apple reflect the ‘peak smartphone’ underweight stance on the Asian supply chain covered last September and since.</li>
<li>Smartphone sales have entered a structural slowdown – chip companies like MediaTek which have diversified revenue exposure into new end markets look more resilient.</li>
<li>The sell-off in semi equipment makers despite strong results reflects fears that the DRAM/NAND capex cycles are also topping out -  NAND prices fell up to 10%…</li>
</ul>


TSMC’s weak guidance last week and Q2 shipment downgrades for Apple reflect the ‘peak smartphone’ underweight stance on the Asian supply chain covered last September and since.
Smartphone sales have entered a structural slowdown – chip companies like MediaTek which have diversified revenue exposure into new end markets look more resilient.
The sell-off in semi equipment makers despite strong results reflects fears that the DRAM/NAND capex cycles are also topping out -  NAND prices fell up to 10%…


‘Peak Smartphone’ Thesis Goes Mainstream, as EM Disappoints Bulls…

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Event-Driven

News yesterday morning that Toshiba was considering stepping away from selling its memory business to Bain if Chinese antitrust approval is not approved by May 28th briefly boosted the stock by as much as 5.3% as investors seemed to cheer the news of a potential IPO for the business. The stock traded down 3% intraday, however, to close at its lows, just 2.1% above Friday's close which was itself the lowest price since early December last year. This pattern appears to be repeating today as the…

News yesterday morning that Toshiba was considering stepping away from selling its memory business to Bain if Chinese antitrust approval is not approved by May 28th briefly boosted the stock by as much as 5.3% as investors seemed to cheer the news of a potential IPO for the business. The stock traded down 3% intraday, however, to close at its lows, just 2.1% above Friday's close which was itself the lowest price since early December last year. This pattern appears to be repeating today as the…

Toshiba: Tilting Towards IPO, Farallon Pops Up, but Will NAND Supply Demand Have the Last Laugh?

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

In the past few days, we have seen some major swing moves in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/191" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1">Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/16955" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1">SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS)</a>, who together have nearly 75% and 49% of the global DRAM and NAND flash market shares, respectively.  In the last few days, in Trump's efforts to make a best deal for the United States, he has initially proposed a massive $60 billion in tariffs on various Chinese imports. In order to avoid these huge tariffs, China has proposed to buy more semiconductor chips from…

In the past few days, we have seen some major swing moves in Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) and SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS), who together have nearly 75% and 49% of the global DRAM and NAND flash market shares, respectively.  In the last few days, in Trump's efforts to make a best deal for the United States, he has initially proposed a massive $60 billion in tariffs on various Chinese imports. In order to avoid these huge tariffs, China has proposed to buy more semiconductor chips from…

Micron Technology - A Call Optionality on Trump's Art of the Deal?

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet to retest either the highs or the lows, we still see both as critical levels. With support levels holding, we retain our long-term bullish stance despite the expectation of continued volatility and consolidation. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology and Financials. Within Tech we focus on TE-01 and TE-02, our Large- and Mid-Cap Semiconductor Groups (respectively), and within Financials we highlight FN-34, our Electronic Exchanges/Markets Group.

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet to retest either the highs or the lows, we still see both as critical levels. With support levels holding, we retain our long-term bullish stance despite the expectation of continued volatility and consolidation. In today’s report we highlight attractive and actionable groups within Technology and Financials. Within Tech we focus on TE-01 and TE-02, our Large- and Mid-Cap Semiconductor Groups (respectively), and within Financials we highlight FN-34, our Electronic Exchanges/Markets Group.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Heightened Volatility; Further Consolidation; Bullish Outlook Intact.

Prior to Toshiba's release of its 3Q earnings at 1pm today, there were two pieces of news: The company was likely to miss its March deadline for approval of the memory unit sale, and former SMBC deputy  president Nobuaki Kurumatani would be assuming the role of chairman and CEO (with current CEO Satoshi Tsunakawa remaining as president). Toshiba then released earnings which were largely unsurprising with the memory business continuing to generate excellent profits but with OP leveling off after…

Prior to Toshiba's release of its 3Q earnings at 1pm today, there were two pieces of news: The company was likely to miss its March deadline for approval of the memory unit sale, and former SMBC deputy  president Nobuaki Kurumatani would be assuming the role of chairman and CEO (with current CEO Satoshi Tsunakawa remaining as president). Toshiba then released earnings which were largely unsurprising with the memory business continuing to generate excellent profits but with OP leveling off after…

Toshiba: Likely Delay in Deal Approval and Poor Non-Memory Earnings Make IPO More Likely

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

‘Peak Smartphone’ Thesis Goes Mainstream, as EM Disappoints Bulls…

TSMC’s weak guidance last week and Q2 shipment downgrades for Apple reflect the ‘peak smartphone’ underweight stance on the Asian supply chain...

Sean Maher

Toshiba: Tilting Towards IPO, Farallon Pops Up, but Will NAND Supply Demand Have the Last Laugh?

News yesterday morning that Toshiba was considering stepping away from selling its memory business to Bain if Chinese antitrust approval is not...

Mio Kato

Micron Technology - A Call Optionality on Trump's Art of the Deal?

In the past few days, we have seen some major swing moves in Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (005930 KS) and SK Hynix Inc (000660 KS), who together have...

Douglas Kim

U.S. Equity Strategy: Heightened Volatility; Further Consolidation; Bullish Outlook Intact.

Equity markets have remained volatile, consolidating between the recent high in late January and the low on February 9th. While the market has yet...

Vermilion Research

Toshiba: Likely Delay in Deal Approval and Poor Non-Memory Earnings Make IPO More Likely

Prior to Toshiba's release of its 3Q earnings at 1pm today, there were two pieces of news: The company was likely to miss its March deadline for...

Mio Kato

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