Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This morning in the Nikkei there is an <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Toshiba-receives-offer-from-CVC-to-go-private-in-20bn-deal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">article</a> (English, Japanese is <a href="https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC06CLO0W1A400C2000000/?unlock=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">here</a>) headlined...<blockquote>Toshiba receives offer from CVC to go private in $20bn deal</blockquote>The accompanying article in Japanese including CEO Kurumatani-san's comments suggests that the board will meet today to discuss it. The initial response to the press was that it had received the initial proposal yesterday without any previous consultation, so the company would seek more information and consider the proposal carefully.It's early days. The headline number of ¥5,000/share is too low, by a fair bit, and there are a lot of hurdles (which are NOT shareholders wanting more) before this could go forward (allowing shareholders to want more).Exactly one year ago today, I wrote <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/an-mbo-for-toshiba-not-as-silly-as-it-sounds" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:38199" rel="noopener">An MBO for Toshiba? Not As Silly As It Sounds</a> after an article in an "investigative" magazine called FACTA (most famous for pre-commenting on the fraud on Olympus nearly a decade ago) put out an article "Toshiba: Kurumatani's Astonishing MBO Scheme: Will He Be Able to Expel Noisy Shareholders?" (東芝・車谷が「MBO」画策の仰天: 物言う株主「放逐」は叶うか).The article spent a lot of time talking about Kurumatani-san as a person, the insinuations that he hates shareholders, and about his desire to control his own fate - to "have his own castle" (by getting noisy activists out). The story suggested then that he saw his chance now (early April 2020) as the fall in the share price saw foreigners sell (that analysis was weak; I expect the activists were not the ones selling down hard in an illiquid market in the covid-crash, and I said as much). The article name-dropped PE funds and related parties (one fund, Integral, was led by a former SMBC colleague; and CVC - where Kurumatani-san spent a year as the Japan rep after leaving SMBC when he didn't get the nod for the top job - was mentioned as another), but I highlighted, <div>
<blockquote>The "astonishing scheme" about the MBO though is not to be ignored. It serves a LOT of purposes. </blockquote>
I stand by that conclusion, and it is worth thinking about how this might play out.
Much more below the fold.
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This morning in the Nikkei there is an article (English, Japanese is here) headlined...Toshiba receives offer from CVC to go private in $20bn dealThe accompanying article in Japanese including CEO Kurumatani-san's comments suggests that the board will meet today to discuss it. The initial response to the press was that it had received the initial proposal yesterday without any previous consultation, so the company would seek more information and consider the proposal carefully.It's early days. The headline number of ¥5,000/share is too low, by a fair bit, and there are a lot of hurdles (which are NOT shareholders wanting more) before this could go forward (allowing shareholders to want more).Exactly one year ago today, I wrote An MBO for Toshiba? Not As Silly As It Sounds after an article in an "investigative" magazine called FACTA (most famous for pre-commenting on the fraud on Olympus nearly a decade ago) put out an article "Toshiba: Kurumatani's Astonishing MBO Scheme: Will He Be Able to Expel Noisy Shareholders?" (東芝・車谷が「MBO」画策の仰天: 物言う株主「放逐」は叶うか).The article spent a lot of time talking about Kurumatani-san as a person, the insinuations that he hates shareholders, and about his desire to control his own fate - to "have his own castle" (by getting noisy activists out). The story suggested then that he saw his chance now (early April 2020) as the fall in the share price saw foreigners sell (that analysis was weak; I expect the activists were not the ones selling down hard in an illiquid market in the covid-crash, and I said as much). The article name-dropped PE funds and related parties (one fund, Integral, was led by a former SMBC colleague; and CVC - where Kurumatani-san spent a year as the Japan rep after leaving SMBC when he didn't get the nod for the top job - was mentioned as another), but I highlighted, 
The "astonishing scheme" about the MBO though is not to be ignored. It serves a LOT of purposes. 
I stand by that conclusion, and it is worth thinking about how this might play out.
Much more below the fold.



Toshiba - The CEO Gets His MBO Bidder and Toshiba Will Get Interestinger

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Positive news flow for Toshiba continues as the <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Business-deals/Micron-and-Western-Digital-explore-possible-deal-for-Kioxia-WSJ" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that both Micron and Western Digital have expressed interest in acquiring equity affiliate Kioxia for as much as $30bn. With Toshiba owning 40.2% of the company that would be a significant haul for the company regardless of whether the quoted figure is market cap or EV.

Positive news flow for Toshiba continues as the Nikkei reported that both Micron and Western Digital have expressed interest in acquiring equity affiliate Kioxia for as much as $30bn. With Toshiba owning 40.2% of the company that would be a significant haul for the company regardless of whether the quoted figure is market cap or EV.

Toshiba – Rumoured Deal for Kioxia a Big Positive

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist, Objective Analysis

Jim Handy

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs Specialist

Objective Analysis

Objective Analysis offers third-party independent market research and data for the semiconductor industry and investors in the semiconductor industry.

Semiconductors, Memory and SSDs

Equity Bottom-Up

Micron Technology's March 31 second-fiscal-quarter earnings call told not only of a strong recent quarter, but of a very positive outlook for the next several quarters as the DRAM market is experiencing a growing shortage and the NAND flash market seems to be going into balance.

Micron Technology's March 31 second-fiscal-quarter earnings call told not only of a strong recent quarter, but of a very positive outlook for the next several quarters as the DRAM market is experiencing a growing shortage and the NAND flash market seems to be going into balance.

Micron 2QF21: Everything's Good and Getting Even Better

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiwan-semiconductor-manufacturing-company" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11230:1" rel="noopener">TSMC (2330 TT)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/micron-technology-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13382:1" rel="noopener">Micron Technology (MU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiaomi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24409:1" rel="noopener">Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-wall-motor-co-ltd-cb302af9-398c-4d2d-ba39-023e43287eef" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:128:1" rel="noopener">Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27399:1" rel="noopener">NIO Inc (NIO US)</a>

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity indices. Companies mentioned this week:TSMC (2330 TT), Micron Technology (MU US), Baidu (BIDU US), Alibaba Group (9988 HK), Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK), Great Wall Motor (2333 HK), NIO Inc (NIO US)

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 26 March 2021

President

Thomas Coughlin

Coughlin Associates

Micron announced that it was ending its development of the 3D XPoint technology that it co-developed with Intel.  The company said that it would instead focus on memory products for CXL-enabled storage systems.  Although 3D XPoint is being retired, it is not clear that Micron is abandoning phase change memory and may use it in future CXL products.  With Micron’s exit, Intel is the sole provider of 3D XPoint products that it brands as Optane memory.

Micron announced that it was ending its development of the 3D XPoint technology that it co-developed with Intel.  The company said that it would instead focus on memory products for CXL-enabled storage systems.  Although 3D XPoint is being retired, it is not clear that Micron is abandoning phase change memory and may use it in future CXL products.  With Micron’s exit, Intel is the sole provider of 3D XPoint products that it brands as Optane memory. 

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Toshiba - The CEO Gets His MBO Bidder and Toshiba Will Get Interestinger

3mos ago Toshiba was cheap. Now TOPIX squeezes float, Kioxia is hot, Activists won the EGM, now looking at the AGM. Whoops. Look at the Birdie!...

Travis Lundy

Toshiba – Rumoured Deal for Kioxia a Big Positive

A sale of Kioxia to Micron or WDC could help Toshiba realise further value and would mark an increasingly positive news flow cycle following...

Mio Kato

Micron 2QF21: Everything's Good and Getting Even Better

Micron's management showed surprising bullishness in its most recent earnings call, as the markets for their two products are entering a protracted...

Jim Handy

Global Emerging Markets Weekly: 26 March 2021

This insight provides a summary of the key news developments impacting the largest countries and constituents of the Global Emerging Markets equity...

Wium Malan, CFA

Micron Ends 3D XPoint Memory

Micron ends its work on 3D XPoint Memory, leaving Intel as the sole supplier of this non-volatile memory product. Micron says that it will focus...

Thomas Coughlin

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