Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hon Hai reports start of production for electric tractors in the U.S., and separately its founder is seeking the support of Taiwan's KMT party to run for Taiwan president.</li>
<li>The extreme Delta Thailand vs. Delta Taiwan valuation disconnect has finally reverted hard; Delta Thailand shares have crashed recently relative to Delta Taiwan not trading.</li>
<li>The long holiday has opened up some rare ADR discounts for Taiwan dual-listed names.</li>
</ul>


Hon Hai reports start of production for electric tractors in the U.S., and separately its founder is seeking the support of Taiwan's KMT party to run for Taiwan president.
The extreme Delta Thailand vs. Delta Taiwan valuation disconnect has finally reverted hard; Delta Thailand shares have crashed recently relative to Delta Taiwan not trading.
The long holiday has opened up some rare ADR discounts for Taiwan dual-listed names.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Market Re-Opens After Long Holiday; U.S.-China Chip War Heats Up Further

<ul>
<li>ADR premiums for dual-listed Taiwan shares have overall been on the uptrend this week, as semiconductor industy optimism in the U.S. as increased.</li>
<li>TSMC's ADR premium appears to be trading at a new higher range in the last few months.</li>
<li>Other spreads have risen as well lately; it's probably best to wait for significant reversals, which usually happen within two weeks at most.</li>
</ul>


ADR premiums for dual-listed Taiwan shares have overall been on the uptrend this week, as semiconductor industy optimism in the U.S. as increased.
TSMC's ADR premium appears to be trading at a new higher range in the last few months.
Other spreads have risen as well lately; it's probably best to wait for significant reversals, which usually happen within two weeks at most.


Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums on the Rise; TSMC Premium Persistently Higher Lately

<ul>
<li>Micron reported a very weak set of results, implying weak results to come for Memory peers such as Nanya Technology.</li>
<li>Micron however said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory over-supply imbalance to improve through the end of calendar 2023.</li>
<li>We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology. While there are signs of improvement coming for industry supply/demand, we believe Micron is in a relatively stronger position.</li>
</ul>


Micron reported a very weak set of results, implying weak results to come for Memory peers such as Nanya Technology.
Micron however said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory over-supply imbalance to improve through the end of calendar 2023.
We remain biased to Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Technology. While there are signs of improvement coming for industry supply/demand, we believe Micron is in a relatively stronger position.


Micron Results: Take-Aways for Memory, PC Industry Outlook; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down </li>
<li>Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers</li>
<li>Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter</li>
</ul>


On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down 
Both DRAM and NAND are now selling well below cost, for all producers
Despite a gradually improving outlook, Micron still anticipates a further $500 million inventory write-down in their current quarter


Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

<ul>
<li>Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.</li>
<li>The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.</li>
<li>Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.</li>
</ul>


Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space.
The Taiwanese market has substantially lagged the surge in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
Chinese firms are trying to poach engineers from TSMC and UMC by offering 2-3x their salaries.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

United States

Micron Technology, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and markets dynamic random access memory chips (DRAMs), very fast static random access memory chips (SRAMs), Flash Memory, other semiconductor components, and memory modules.

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Micron Technology (MU US)

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Market Re-Opens After Long Holiday; U.S.-China Chip War Heats Up Further

Hon Hai reports start of production for electric tractors in the U.S., and separately its founder is seeking the support of Taiwan's KMT party to...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Taiwan Dual-Listings: ADR Premiums on the Rise; TSMC Premium Persistently Higher Lately

Other spreads have risen as well lately; it's probably best to wait for significant reversals, which usually happen within two weeks at most.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Results: Take-Aways for Memory, PC Industry Outlook; Long Micron Vs. Short Nanya

Micron said it sees signs of customer inventories improving, and expects the Memory industry's supply/demand imbalance to improve through the end...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Micron Calls FY23Q2 Trough But More Pain Still To Come

On the FY23Q2 earnings call last night, Micron pegged it as their trough quarter while taking a $1.4 billion hit on inventory write-down. A further...

William Keating

Taiwan Tech Weekly: Micron Earnings to Provide Memory Outlook; Taiwan Vs. SOX Divergence

Micron earnings this week, will provide insight on the outlook for the memory chip space. We remain biased to be Long Micron vs. Short Nanya Tech.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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