Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.</li>
<li>So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere</li>
<li>To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development</li>
</ul>


Since January 2023 we have anticipated 4165-4200 would cap upside on the S&amp;P 500 for 2023, but that a rally to 4300-4325 is also possible; this remains our view.
So far there has not been much traction above 4200. Obvious problem is weak breadth, but this does not have to end badly if large-caps pause, and capital disperses elsewhere
To that end, we're watching the Russell 2000 (IWM) which is testing 2.5-month resistance at $180; a break above resistance would signal improving breadth and would be a positive development


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research, AlphaSituations

Robert Sassoon

AlphaSituations-Event/Catalyst Driven Research

AlphaSituations

Since its establishment, AlphaSituations has delivered a track record of outperformance with a hit rate of winners of more than 70% of its portfolio of ideas generating annualized average returns of 20%. In January 2022, AlphaSituations was contracted by Water Tower Research, an investor engagement and stakeholder communication platform to provide coverage of Special Situations

Event-Driven

Genworth Financial Inc Cl A / Event-Driven

The abandonment of its merger transaction with China Oceanwide has freed a financially healthier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genworth-financial-inc-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3876:1" rel="noopener">Genworth Financial Inc Cl A (GNW US)</a> to pursue its revised strategic plan without restrictions and without uncertainty regarding its ultimate ownership. With what had seemingly been a never ending saga now finally over, we assert that Plan B will likely yield a more beneficial outcome to GNW shareholders than had the Oceanwide transaction moved to completion in the current circumstances.

The abandonment of its merger transaction with China Oceanwide has freed a financially healthier Genworth Financial Inc Cl A (GNW US) to pursue its revised strategic plan without restrictions and without uncertainty regarding its ultimate ownership. With what had seemingly been a never ending saga now finally over, we assert that Plan B will likely yield a more beneficial outcome to GNW shareholders than had the Oceanwide transaction moved to completion in the current circumstances.

SpinTalk: How Genworth Financial Holdings (GNW US)Creates More Value Without The Oceanwide Merger

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Genworth Financial Inc Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

*Aussie Business Weakens Again: Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia (GMA.AU) [GMA] reported a FY 2H20 bottom-line loss of AUD 17.6 mn. Despite the loss, the level was an improvement of AUD 72.4 mn over the AUD 90.0 mn loss posted in FY 1H20. You simply cannot earn money if your combined ratio is 137.7% - albeit an improvement over the 215.0% posted during the previous half. Despite the expense ratio improvement of 127.4% to 20.5%, the claims ratio increase of 50.1% to 117.1% acted as quite the offset and drove the loss as the 4Q20 refinement of reserving due to COVID-19 related factors was the primary culprit; and*Genworth Still Waiting To Clear That Chinese Wall: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  While the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”, as Genworth (with no other option) continued to play this same old tired game with China Oceanwide by extending its merger agreement deadline.

*Aussie Business Weakens Again: Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia (GMA.AU) [GMA] reported a FY 2H20 bottom-line loss of AUD 17.6 mn. Despite the loss, the level was an improvement of AUD 72.4 mn over the AUD 90.0 mn loss posted in FY 1H20. You simply cannot earn money if your combined ratio is 137.7% - albeit an improvement over the 215.0% posted during the previous half. Despite the expense ratio improvement of 127.4% to 20.5%, the claims ratio increase of 50.1% to 117.1% acted as quite the offset and drove the loss as the 4Q20 refinement of reserving due to COVID-19 related factors was the primary culprit; and*Genworth Still Waiting To Clear That Chinese Wall: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  While the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”, as Genworth (with no other option) continued to play this same old tired game with China Oceanwide by extending its merger agreement deadline.

Genworth Financial – Wrong Time For An Aussie Fail

*No Deal, Move On: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  Genworth announced that while the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”; and  *Update Call January 5, 2021: Genworth is hosting a pre-market update call on January 5, 2021 which should provide more color on its contingency plans.

*No Deal, Move On: China Oceanwide (715.HK) still does not have the money to consummate the Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] transaction – missing its merger agreement deadline for the 17th time on December 31, 2020.  Genworth announced that while the merger agreement still remains in effect, management does “not believe a closing can occur in the near-term”; and  *Update Call January 5, 2021: Genworth is hosting a pre-market update call on January 5, 2021 which should provide more color on its contingency plans.

*16th Time Is A Charm: Clearly, Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] has no other prospects and we  don’t think for a moment that China Oceanwide (715.HK0 doesn’t understand this. On the other hand, how is it that on the four year anniversary of the signing of the purchase and sale agreement between the two that China Oceanwide hasn’t been able to secure the proper funding? Both have now agreed to a 16th waiver of their right to terminate the transaction  - extending the merger agreement deadline to November 30th. Between China Oceanwide’s gamesmanship and various regulatory hurdles, we foresee numerous deadline extensions from here.

*16th Time Is A Charm: Clearly, Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] has no other prospects and we  don’t think for a moment that China Oceanwide (715.HK0 doesn’t understand this. On the other hand, how is it that on the four year anniversary of the signing of the purchase and sale agreement between the two that China Oceanwide hasn’t been able to secure the proper funding? Both have now agreed to a 16th waiver of their right to terminate the transaction  - extending the merger agreement deadline to November 30th. Between China Oceanwide’s gamesmanship and various regulatory hurdles, we foresee numerous deadline extensions from here. 

Genworth Financial – Extending and Pretending Again

United States

MGIC Investment Corporation, through its subsidiary, provides private mortgage insurance coverage in the United States.  The Company's customers include thrifts, mortgage bankers and brokers, commercial banks, credit unions, and other lending institutions.  The Company also provides, through subsidiaries, underwriting and contract services related to home mortgage lending.

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Mgic Investment (MTG US)

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $180 Resistance; Rising Treasury Yields & DXY To Become a Problem?

So far there has been little traction above $SPX 4200. Weak breadth remains an obvious problem. We are watching the $IWM which is testing $180; a...

Vermilion Research

SpinTalk: How Genworth Financial Holdings (GNW US)Creates More Value Without The Oceanwide Merger

GNW shareholders are likely to better off now that the Oceanwide deal has been called off deal as the focus turns to the pending separation of...

Robert Sassoon

Genworth Financial – Wrong Time For An Aussie Fail

GENWORTH FINANCIAL: Genworth Mortgage Insurance Australia reported a FY 2H20 bottom-line loss as its combined ratio was 137.7%. China Oceanwide...

Thomas J. Monaco

Genworth Financial –What A Surprise…

GENWORTH FINANCIAL: China Oceanwide Simply Does Not Have The Money To Consummate This Transaction, And Genworth Needs To Move On - But It Wont Be...

Thomas J. Monaco

Genworth Financial – Extending and Pretending Again

*16th Time Is A Charm: Clearly, Genworth Financial (GNW.US) [Genworth] has no other prospects and we don’t think for a moment that China Oceanwide...

Thomas J. Monaco

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