European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, <em>aiming</em> (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.</li>
<li>Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.</li>
<li>Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.</li>
</ul>


Vivendi executed a landmark three-way spin-off in December 2024, aiming (but not succeeding) to eliminate its conglomerate discount and unlock shareholder value by listing Canal+, Havas, and Louis Hachette separately.
Following Telecom Italia's strategic unwinding, Vivendi incurred over €2 billion in losses but recovered nearly €1 billion in cash through divestments, highlighting its shift toward portfolio streamlining and deleveraging.
Vivendi now operates as a focused investment holding with UMG comprising over 60% of its asset base, but high concentration and equity beta expose the group to significant portfolio risk.


Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

<ul>
<li>Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Media-for-Europe, Sixt, Volkswagen (still the most interesting situation).
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.</li>
<li>The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.</li>
<li>Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.</li>
</ul>


MFE’s €5.70/share offer reflects strategic aims, not a traditional control premium, and values ProSieben near peer multiples amid industry disruption and weak organic growth prospects.
The deal structure and German takeover law enable MFE to carry out a creeping takeover strategy, allowing it to gradually increase its stake post-settlement without launching a new public offer.
Estimated net synergies of €1.00–1.39 per share, boosting the deal’s potential strategic return.Market skepticism is visible in the -10.2% gross spread.


MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

<ul>
<li>Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-February, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (12 have tightened, 5 widened, 1 at same level).
Discont of Carlsberg B has never been this low (5.7%) since the pandemic; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 35.5% premium to A shares (after widening to 60.4%). 
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).</li>
<li>Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3 tightened, 4 at same level).
Telecom Italia savers sharply reduced their premium to ords to 12% (vs. 18.5%); Handelsbanken B shares trade at 39.9% premium to A shares.
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal, Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

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MFE-Media for Europe NV (MFEB IM)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Initiating Coverage Of "New" Vivendi, Latest Portfolio Disposals

​Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December‘23 Report

Since mid-November, spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE Tunes In to ProSieben for a Pan-European Broadcast Power Play

​MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: March '25 Report

​European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: February'25 Report

Since mid-January, share-price spreads have generally widened across European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (11 have widened, 3...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Vivendi's three-way spin-off aimed to eliminate conglomerate discount, but incurred losses and shifted focus to portfolio streamlining with UMG as...

MFE's offer for ProSieben reflects strategic aims, not a control premium, amid industry disruption and weak growth prospects. Market skepticism...

European share-price spreads have generally tightened since mid-February, with volatility; Carlsberg B discount at 5-year record low,...