European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There has not been a clear trend regarding premiums and discounts across our liquid universe since mid June. I highlight the widening discounts in Investor AB, Roche and Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB.
</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE, Ericsson, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


There has not been a clear trend regarding premiums and discounts across our liquid universe since mid June. I highlight the widening discounts in Investor AB, Roche and Volkswagen.
Trade recommendations long ords / short prefs: Fuchs Petrolub, SSAB.

Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, MFE, Ericsson, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ‘22 Report

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition of the takeover bid for Mediaset España and acquired all of the shares that accepted the offer (27.23% of the share capital).</li>
<li>MFE will own 82.92% (thus not reaching squeeze-out threshold), the stock is much less liquid now. TV advertising looks increasingly grim in Spain. I would be short up to €2.8/share.</li>
<li>MFE A shares are trading at a 30% discount, which seems excessive. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.</li>
</ul>


MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition of the takeover bid for Mediaset España and acquired all of the shares that accepted the offer (27.23% of the share capital).
MFE will own 82.92% (thus not reaching squeeze-out threshold), the stock is much less liquid now. TV advertising looks increasingly grim in Spain. I would be short up to €2.8/share.
MFE A shares are trading at a 30% discount, which seems excessive. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.


MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>Discounts have generally widened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market losses. </li>
<li>Recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.</li>
<li>Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.</li>
</ul>


Discounts have generally widened across our liquid universe, in line with the recent market losses. 
Recommendations long ords / short prefs: BMW, Fuchs Petrolub, Investor AB, SSAB.
Recommendations long prefs / short ords: Sixt, VW, Danieli, MFE, Grifols, Atlas Copco, Ericsson Handelsbanken, Roche, Schroders.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June ‘22 Report

<ul>
<li>MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.</li>
<li>The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.</li>
<li>Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.</li>
</ul>


MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.
The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.
Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.


MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

<ul>
<li>On 26 May, the CNMV authorized the bid. The offer period will end on 28 June. Mediaset España shareholders do not seem very excited about the offer though.</li>
<li>Analysts' median TP (Refinitiv) of Mediaset España  is €6.58/share, vs. the package worth €4.452 as of 30 May, 19.4% below value upon offer announcement. Market sentiment is negative.</li>
<li>As of 30 May, risk arb spread is 4.2% (MFE dividend not included). It seems increasingly unlikely that the offer is successful and Mediaset España delisted, in my view.</li>
</ul>


On 26 May, the CNMV authorized the bid. The offer period will end on 28 June. Mediaset España shareholders do not seem very excited about the offer though.
Analysts' median TP (Refinitiv) of Mediaset España  is €6.58/share, vs. the package worth €4.452 as of 30 May, 19.4% below value upon offer announcement. Market sentiment is negative.
As of 30 May, risk arb spread is 4.2% (MFE dividend not included). It seems increasingly unlikely that the offer is successful and Mediaset España delisted, in my view.


MFE/​Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

Italy

MFE-MediaForEurope N.V. is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, operates television broadcasting, television production, signal broadcasting management, and music production businesses, as well as television stations. MFE-MediaForEurope serves customers in Europe.

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MFE-Media for Europe NV (MFEB IM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ‘22 Report

There has not been a clear trend regarding premiums and discounts across our liquid universe since mid June. I highlight the widening discounts in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition and will own 82.92%. The stock is less liquid now, which together with increasingly grim prospects...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June ‘22 Report

For the most part since mid-May, spreads were compressing, but inflation fears and rate rises have hit hard the stock markets in the last trading...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

The offer period has started, but MEdiasset España shareholders do not seem too keen on the offer as the consideration package is c. 20% below its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July ‘22 Report

There has not been a clear trend regarding premiums and discounts across our liquid universe since mid June. I highlight the widening discounts in...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition and will own 82.92%. The stock is less liquid now, which together with increasingly grim prospects...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June ‘22 Report

For the most part since mid-May, spreads were compressing, but inflation fears and rate rises have hit hard the stock markets in the last trading...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/​Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations

The offer period has started, but MEdiasset España shareholders do not seem too keen on the offer as the consideration package is c. 20% below its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE/Mediaset España: Start of Offer Period with Lower Success Expectations