Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Energy Transition | AI | Shifting World Order

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.</li>
<li>Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."</li>
<li>Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).</li>
</ul>


First mover advantage is half-truth. For every academic study proving that first-mover advantages exist, there is a study proving they do not.
Engineers at OpenAI, scaled up a special machine learning method using large data sets to create GPT or "Generative Pre-trained Transformer."
Launch of ChatGPT has put OpenAI revenues on steroids with reports suggesting USD 1.3B this year (versus USD 28 million before ChatGPT was rolled out).


Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Build Well-Diversified Multi-Asset Portfolios

True Insights

Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. </li>
<li>Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! </li>
<li>And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.</li>
</ul>


This week, the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF took another leap forward. And a poll among investors reveals that this will be a game-changer. 
Equities tumbled again, and earnings are to blame. Google is down hard as the ‘Magnificent 7’ delivered mixed earnings, nowhere near good enough, given they are priced for perfection! 
And that’s not all. The spike in real yields suggests a whopping decline of 25%(!) of the P/E ratio of the S&amp;P 500 Index.


The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased </li>
<li>Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.</li>
<li>We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers</li>
</ul>


As discussed in last week's Compass (9/26/23), we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased 
Our reasoning continues to be due to the major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields (10- and 30-year), coupled with a handful of Sectors/indexes breaking below supports.
We are also monitoring 1-year uptrends on the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 (IWM), currently at 4240 and $173. Flirting with breakdowns below these levels today. Buys in retail/energy shippers


S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shiyue-daotian" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39796:1" rel="noopener">Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH)</a> is looking to raise up to US$108m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$200m.</li>
<li>Shiyue Daotian is a pantry staple food company in China, providing consumers with pre-packaged premium rice, whole grain, bean, and dried food products.</li>
<li>In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates and share our thoughts on valuation.</li>
</ul>



Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH) is looking to raise up to US$108m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$200m.
Shiyue Daotian is a pantry staple food company in China, providing consumers with pre-packaged premium rice, whole grain, bean, and dried food products.
In our previous notes, we covered the company’s performance. In this note, we will cover the firm’s PHIP updates and share our thoughts on valuation.


Shiyue Daotian IPO - PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives, MBI Deep Dives

MBI Deep Dives

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Deep Dives

MBI is the abbreviation for “Mostly Borrowed Ideas”. Why “Mostly Borrowed Ideas?” As a generalist, I do not have a background in any particular sector. I enjoy navigating across industries, businesses, and countries to learn, understand, and connect the dots. In any case, most ideas and innovations are incremental in nature. Very few of us are smart enough to come up with truly original or groundbreaking ideas. I am Abdullah Al-Rezwan. I was born and brought up in Bangladesh. I went to University of Dhaka for my undergrad and majored in Finance. After working three and half years in Equity Research (Sell-side) covering Financial Sector in Bangladesh, I left Bangladesh to pursue my MBA in the US. I graduated within top 10% of the class from Cornell University's two-year MBA program and worked on the buy-side following my graduation. During my time at Cornell, I won two stock pitch competitions and also became finalists in four other competitions. I thoroughly enjoyed my stint as a generalist in the US large cap team at Madison Investments and covered a wide range of companies from UnitedHealth to Amazon and Boeing before US immigration reality paused my career in investment management. As my work authorization expired, I moved to Canada in January, 2021. Then in early 2022, I was able to return to the US.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>In aggregate, Big Tech was worth $1.1 Tn at the end of 2012.</li><li>Over the last ten years (2013-2022), Big Tech collectively generated $2.3 Tn Operating Cash Flow (OCF), slightly more than double their aggregate market cap ten years ago!</li><li>To say it differently, Big Tech was a form of deep value investing that was deeply underappreciated even though they are all widely followed companies at that time!</li></ul>

In aggregate, Big Tech was worth $1.1 Tn at the end of 2012.Over the last ten years (2013-2022), Big Tech collectively generated $2.3 Tn Operating Cash Flow (OCF), slightly more than double their aggregate market cap ten years ago!To say it differently, Big Tech was a form of deep value investing that was deeply underappreciated even though they are all widely followed companies at that time!

United States

Meta Platforms Inc. operates as a social technology company. The Company builds applications and technologies that help people connect, find communities, and grow businesses. meta Platform is also involved in advertisements, augmented and virtual reality.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Meta Platforms (Facebook) (META US)

Unpacking First Mover OpenAI. Can It Avoid the Fate of Netscape and MySpace?

At the Ignite conference, Microsoft announced the Maia 100 AI Accelarator which is optimized for Azure. It will cater towards customer's AI demand....

Mint Finance

The Weekly Market Monitor – Reality Check!

When something is 'priced for perfection,' disappointment is inevitable. Just ask Google. By the way, a spot Bitcoin ETF is inevitable, too. This...

Jeroen Blokland

S&P 500 and Russell 2000 Testing 1-Year Uptrends; "Magnificent Seven" Supports to Watch

As discussed last week, we continue to believe the odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major...

Vermilion Research

Shiyue Daotian IPO - PHIP Updates & Quick Thoughts on Valuation

Shiyue Daotian (1892269D CH) is looking to raise up to US$108m in its Hong Kong IPO, after downsizing from an earlier reported float of US$200m.

Ethan Aw

The Curious Case of Big Tech

Over the last ten years (2013-2022), Big Tech collectively generated $2.3 Tn Operating Cash Flow (OCF), slightly more than double their aggregate...

MBI Deep Dives

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)