Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners</p>

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday’s test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. In this report we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market remains vulnerable to a breakdown. On a more positive note, we also highlight attractive Groups and stocks within homebuilders, storage REITs, and large- and small-cap Western Hemisphere gold miners

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

<p>A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce which began on 12/26, and the S&amp;P 500 is now trading just below the 12/19 pre-Fed rate hike area. ~2,350 on the S&amp;P 500 remains the support level to monitor. A retest of this low remains the most likely scenario, though it is far from a guarantee due to the potential for a “V” reversal. We examine an array of factors leading to our intact cautious outlook, and highlight attractive set-ups within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care Sectors.</p>

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce which began on 12/26, and the S&amp;P 500 is now trading just below the 12/19 pre-Fed rate hike area. ~2,350 on the S&amp;P 500 remains the support level to monitor. A retest of this low remains the most likely scenario, though it is far from a guarantee due to the potential for a “V” reversal. We examine an array of factors leading to our intact cautious outlook, and highlight attractive set-ups within Consumer Discretionary and Health Care Sectors.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues

United States

Whirlpool Corporation manufactures and markets major home appliances.  The Company's principal products include laundry appliances, refrigeration and room air conditioning equipment, cooking appliances, dishwashers, and mixers and other small household appliances.  Whirlpool's products are sold worldwide

Mohawk Industries, Inc. designs, manufactures, sources, distributes and markets flooring for residential and commercial applications.  The Company offers carpet, ceramic tile, laminate, wood, stone, vinyl, and rugs.  Mohawk markets residential and commercial flooring in the United States, and residential flooring in Europe.

Taylor Morrison Home Corp is a homebuilder in North America.  The Company builds single-family detached and attached homes and develop land, which includes lifestyle and master planned communities.

TRI Pointe Group, Inc. provides construction services. The Company designs, builds, develops, and constructs residential homes. TRI Pointe Homes serves customers throughout the United States.

Installed Building Products Inc installs residential insulation in the United States.  The Company also installs complementary building products, including garage doors, rain gutters, shower doors, closet shelving and mirrors.

Tempur Sealy International Inc., through its primary subsidiary manufactures and markets foam mattresses, pillows, and miscellaneous products under its own and other brand names.

M/I Homes, Inc. builds single-family homes that are marketed and sold under the M/I Homes and Showcase Homes trade names.  M/I Homes has homebuilding operations in Ohio, Indiana, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland.

KB Home builds single-family homes in the United States, primarily targeting first-time and first move-up homebuyers.  The Company has operating divisions in Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Nevada, Wisconsin, New Mexico,  North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas in the United States. KB Home also derives income from mortgage banking, title and insurance services.

M.D.C. Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, builds and sells homes under the name Richmond American Homes.  The Company also originates mortgage loans primarily for its home buyers.  M.D.C. builds its single-family homes in Colorado, Virginia, Maryland, Northern and Southern California, Arizona, and Nevada.

Newell Rubbermaid Inc. manufactures and markets branded consumer products which are sold through a variety of retail and wholesale distribution channels.  The Company's products include housewares, juvenile products, home furnishings, office products, tools and hardware, and hair accessories.

Hang Zhou Great Star Industrial Company Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells hand tools hardware products. The Company's products are hand tools and electric hand-held tools.

Hangzhou Great Star Industrial Co., (002444 CH)

Iida Group Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company established by the merger between Hajime Construction, Iida Home Max, Touei Housing, Tact Home, Arnest One and ID Home. Its subsidiaries engage in design, construction and sales of residential properties such as single-family houses and condominiums and construction related works.

Sumitomo Forestry Co., Ltd. sells lumber and wood-related construction materials.  The Company constructs and markets a variety of homes, including custom-built wooden houses, and also manufactures and distributes high-value added wood-based products.  Sumitomo Forestry also maintains a significant amount of Japan's forests.

Sekisui Chemical Co., Ltd. builds and sells unit residential houses in addition to parcels of land. The Company also manufactures and sells polyvinyl chloride and other plastic products used in, for instance, drainage pipes and bathtubs. Moreover the company is engaged in the production and sale of high performance plastic films, tapes and sheets.

Zhejiang Supor Co., Ltd. manufactures and markets cookware and home appliance products. The Company produces non-stick pans, pressure cookers, stainless steel cookware, rice cookers, air purifiers, thermos cups, and more. Zhejiang Supor markets its to Japan, Europe, and South East Asia.

De'Longhi is a designer, manufacturer and distributor of small domestic appliances worldwide, with market shares in the espresso coffee makers, food preparation, comfort and home care segments. The Group's brand portfolio comprises De'Longhi, Kenwood, Braun (through a perpetual licensing agreement for selected product categories) and Ariete.

SEB S.A. manufactures small household appliances.  The Company produces cookware, electric cookers, food and beverage preparation equipment, vacuum cleaners, and personal care items. SEB's products are sold globally.

Barratt Developments plc develops and builds properties. The Group's UK Operations include the building of houses and housing complexes, general building and civil engineering services, participation in urban renewal and the development  of commercial properties.

The Berkeley Group Holdings PLC is a residential and commercial property development company focusing on urban regeneration and mixed-use developments. The Company purchases and develops land, in addition to constructing homes, and apartment complexes throughout the South of England, the Midlands, and the North West.

Bellway p.l.c. is a holding company whose subsidiaries build residential houses and conduct associated trading activities. The subsidiaries build starter or first time buyer homes, featuring two and three bedroom semi-detached houses, apartments and terraced houses. The Company operates in England, Wales and Scotland.

Meritage Homes Corporation designs, builds, and sells single-family homes ranging from entry level to semi-custom luxury.  The Company operates in the South and West of the United States.

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Meritage Homes (MTH US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Caution Remains Warranted

We have noted several times throughout August that key support levels were being tested for global equities, and while there has yet to be a...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Oversold Rally Continues

A combination of, optimism surrounding U.S.-China trade talks, and Fed Chairman Powell’s comments have led to a continuation of the oversold bounce...

Vermilion Research

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