Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Merdeka Battery Materials / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>EV supply chain is at a nascent stage in ASEAN and EV adoption in the region lags behind developed markets despite boasting a large population with a burgeoning middle class.</li>
<li>However, Governments in the region continue to introduce new initiatives and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


EV supply chain is at a nascent stage in ASEAN and EV adoption in the region lags behind developed markets despite boasting a large population with a burgeoning middle class.
However, Governments in the region continue to introduce new initiatives and offer incentives to promote the sector, while companies continue to attract large investment to develop the EV market.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Ethan Aw

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Merdeka Battery Materials / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-battery-materials-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36864:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)</a> was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.</li>
<li>MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine. </li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.</li>
</ul>



Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will expire on 11th Dec 2023.
MBMA owns one of the world’s largest nickel mines in terms of contained nickel at the Konawe Nickel Mine. 
In this note, we will talk about the lock-up dynamics and updates since our last note.


Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.</li>
<li>Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat (BBRI)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-central-asia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:440:1" rel="noopener">Bank Central Asia (BBCA)</a>.</li>
<li>For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the LQ45 Index July rebalance ended 30 June. The changes should be announced the last week of July, becoming effective after the close on 31 July.
Based on the index methodology, there could be up to 5 changes at the rebalance. Plus there will be capping changes for Bank Rakyat (BBRI) and Bank Central Asia (BBCA).
For a change, the impact on the potential inclusions will be higher since they will join the index with higher weights compared to the potential deletions.


LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

<ul>
<li>Countries across the ASEAN region continue to invest on developing their respective EV markets with governments introducing new initiatives and offering further incentives.</li>
<li>The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated in recent month, causing pressure on non-Chinese players. European and Japanese EV makers are increasingly looking at ASEAN for cost advantage.</li>
<li>The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


Countries across the ASEAN region continue to invest on developing their respective EV markets with governments introducing new initiatives and offering further incentives.
The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated in recent month, causing pressure on non-Chinese players. European and Japanese EV makers are increasingly looking at ASEAN for cost advantage.
The four companies we looked at have reported earnings and we have discussed their latest results and our investment thesis.


ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.</li>
<li>Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. </li>
<li>We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.</li>
</ul>


Prabowo looks to have scored a resounding victory in Indonesia's Presidential election, according to quick count results, with around 58% of the vote, which is positive from a visibility perspective.
Initial reaction suggests continuity from Jokowi's legacy, with concerns centred around potentially nationalistic policies and increased government borrowing in the future, which may pressurise Indonesia's budgetary position. 
We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set on driving higher GDP growth next year.


Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

Indonesia

PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk is a mineral and mining company.  The Company mines for gold and copper.

Aneka Tambang Persero Tbk PT is a diversified mining and metals company. The Company produces ferronickel, nickel ore, gold, silver, bauxite and coal. Aneka Tambang is currently building a chemical grade alumina smelter and is looking to build  a smelter grade alumina smelter as well as a nickel pig iron smelter.

PT Vale Indonesia Tbk produces nickel in matte, an intermediate product, from lateritic ores at its integrated mining and processing facilities near Soroako, Sulawesi

Bumi Resources Minerals Tbk PT is an exploration and exploitation mining company.

PT Cita Mineral Investindo Tbk is a mineral exploration company. The Company mines for and produces bauxite.

PT Archi Indonesia Tbk operates as a mining company. The Company explores and develops silver and gold projects. Archi Indonesia serves customers worldwide.

PT Timah (Persero) Tbk operates tin mines on Indonesian islands such as Bangka and Karimun, and coastal areas of Sumatra. The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides consultancy, shipping dockyard and workshop, transportation, exploration, and research and development services.

PT J Resources Asia Pasifik Tbk explores for and produces gold.  The Company operates in the Australasian region.

PT Krakatau Steel Persero Tbk is the iron and steel producer in Indonesia. The Company is a  state-owned enterprise and located in Cilegon, Indonesia. Krakatau Steel consists of production plants that produce hot rolled coils, plates and sheets.

PT Steel Pipe Industry Of Indonesia Tbk manufactures steel pipes. The Company produces ERW pipes, spiral welded pipes, stainless steel welded pipes, electric poles, lighting poles, scaffolding and other related products.

Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (ISSP IJ)

Kobe Steel, Ltd. is a steelmaker, as well as a supplier of aluminum and copper products.  The products include steel plates and steel rods.  The Company also operates other businesses such as welding consumables, urban infrastructure, plant engineering, and industrial & construction machinery.  Kobe Steel has operating offices in the US, Europe, and Asia.

IGO Limited operates as an exploration company. The Company explores and mines copper, ore, nickel, gold, and other mineral resources. IGO serves customers worldwide.

Alumina Limited is an Australian resource company that produces alumina.  The Company owns about 40% of Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals through a joint venture with Alcoa.

National Aluminium Co. Ltd. is an integrated aluminum manufacturer. The Company mines for bauxite, refines bauxite into aluminum and manufactures and sells aluminum and aluminum products. National Aluminium Company's products include bauxite, aluminum hydrate, calcined aluminum, aluminum ingots and aluminum wire rods, as well as electricity which is generated for captive consumption.

Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. mines and produces a variety of non-ferrous metals including zinc, lead, and germanium. The Company also produces silver and sulfuric acid.

Yunnan Chihong Zinc&Germanium Co, Ltd. (600497 CH)

China Minmetals Rare Earth Co Ltd engages in south ionic rare earth separation and processing. The Company mainly focuses on the production and distribution of rare earth oxide, rare earth metal, and highly processed products of rare earth, as well as the research and consult service of rare earth techniques.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co.,Ltd. is involved in molybdenum mining, dressing, smelting, processing, research and trade in Asia.

Jinduicheng Molybdenum Co, Ltd. (601958 CH)

Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. produces and markets tin, tin alloy products, and tin chemicals.  The Company sells its tin products under the YT trade mark.

Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. produces a variety of iron and steel products. The Company's products include steel plates, steel belts, structure steel, concrete iron, steel billets, cast iron, and related by-products.

Hindustan Copper Limited is a vertically integrated multi-unit copper producer in India engaged in a wide spectrum of activities ranging from mining, beneficiation, smelting, refining and manufacturing of copper cathodes, continuous cast wire rods and wire bars. The Company was the first Indian Copper producer to get ISO-9002 certificate for its Continuous Cast Wire Rod Plant.

PT Merdeka Battery Materials Tbk. is an integrated strategic minerals and EV battery materials company. The Company focuses on discovering nickel resources and producing advanced products to continuously improve clean energy supply. Merdeka Battery Materials serves customers in Indonesia.

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Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ)

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal of the governments in the region. Governments continue to introduce new initiatives...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will...

Ethan Aw

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Further Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem

Development of a robust EV ecosystem remains a primary goal of the governments in the region. Governments continue to introduce new initiatives...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Merdeka Battery Materials Lockup Expiry - US$1.5bn Lockup Expiry, Some Have Sold Beforehand

Merdeka Battery Materials (MBMA IJ) was listed on 18th Apr 2023, when it raised around US$591m in its Indonesian IPO. Its eight-month lockup will...

Ethan Aw

LQ45 Index Rebalance Preview (July): Identifying Potential Index Changes

We have identified 5 potential changes for the LQ45 Index in July. There will also be capping flows for BBCA and BBRI. Historically, adds and...

Brian Freitas

ASEAN EV Ecosystem Update: Initiatives to Build a Regional EV Ecosystem Continues

​ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Indonesia's Election - When the Music's Over?

We remain positive on the outlook for Indonesia, with increased government spending to fast-track Jokowi's legacy projects. Prabowo also looks set...

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN countries continue to invest on developing the EV markets. The price war among Chinese EV players has escalated, and European and Japanese...