ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> announced its 1Q2021 results which look like a blowout set of numbers with +147% growth in total GAAP revenues with +117% growth in digital bookings for digital entertainment and +250% YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues.</p>
<p>Gross Profit increased a staggering +212% YoY to US$645.4m in 1Q2021 and the company booked a positive EBITDA of US$88.1m versus a (US$69.9m) loss in 1Q2020.</p>
<p>The gross profit margin increased from 28% in 1Q2020 to 36% in 1Q2021, which is a testament to the fact that the company is moving along the path to profitability. Digital entertainment saw higher margins, while-commerce saw falling EBITDA loss per order.</p>
<p>In Digital Entertainment (DE) division continues to see strong growth in its user base with +61% YoY growth in quarterly active users (QAU) to 648.6m but more importantly quarterly paying users saw growth of +12.3% YoY to 79.8m signifying a higher level of monetization on its self-developed game <em>Free Fire.</em></p>
<p>The company continues to successfully expand its gaming business to new geographies, with India being the latest growth engine and players are spending more time on Free Fire and spending more. It continues to add new content and characters to increase the appeal and stickiness of <em>Free Fire</em>. It is also seeing huge response in the eSports arena for <em>Free Fire.</em></p>
<p>Shopee ranked number one in the shopping category by monthly active users and time spent in app in 1Q2021 for both South East Asia and Taiwan, according to App Annie. E-commerce continues to show supercharged growth and especially in the core market of Indonesia.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s move into digital payments in South -East Asia under SeaMoney and ShopeePay in Indonesia continues to see strong momentum.  The mobile wallet total payment volume saw total payment volume triple in 1Q2021 to US$3.4bn. </p>
<p>The company is also expanding the offline use-cases for ShopeePay most recently extending use to Indomaret in Indonesia, the largest mini-market operator in the country.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>'s move into food delivery through ShopeeFood and evidence suggests that it has already had a strong reception to its launch in Jakarta, with growth similar to that in other categories.</p>
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<p>This latest set of results provides further proof of the success of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> growth model which generates huge EBITDA from gaming and reinvests that money into growing the company's e-commerce and digital finance businesses, whilst maintaining the investment momentum into the gaming cash cow, buy pushing out into new geographies such as India.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> continues to standout as the best way to play the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by the popularity of its self developed game <em>Free Fire </em>and its gaming business, together with its move into digital payments a third leg to future growth.</p>
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<section class="figure"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> valuations are higher than its listed peers on 13x and 9x EV/Sales for FY21E and FY22E respectively but it is growing at more than twice the pace in terms of sales to justify this. The market is also paying a premium for its unique financing plus its market leadership and strong track record on execution, with 11 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth.</section>
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Sea Ltd (SE US) announced its 1Q2021 results which look like a blowout set of numbers with +147% growth in total GAAP revenues with +117% growth in digital bookings for digital entertainment and +250% YoY growth in e-commerce GAAP revenues.
Gross Profit increased a staggering +212% YoY to US$645.4m in 1Q2021 and the company booked a positive EBITDA of US$88.1m versus a (US$69.9m) loss in 1Q2020.
The gross profit margin increased from 28% in 1Q2020 to 36% in 1Q2021, which is a testament to the fact that the company is moving along the path to profitability. Digital entertainment saw higher margins, while-commerce saw falling EBITDA loss per order.
In Digital Entertainment (DE) division continues to see strong growth in its user base with +61% YoY growth in quarterly active users (QAU) to 648.6m but more importantly quarterly paying users saw growth of +12.3% YoY to 79.8m signifying a higher level of monetization on its self-developed game Free Fire.
The company continues to successfully expand its gaming business to new geographies, with India being the latest growth engine and players are spending more time on Free Fire and spending more. It continues to add new content and characters to increase the appeal and stickiness of Free Fire. It is also seeing huge response in the eSports arena for Free Fire.
Shopee ranked number one in the shopping category by monthly active users and time spent in app in 1Q2021 for both South East Asia and Taiwan, according to App Annie. E-commerce continues to show supercharged growth and especially in the core market of Indonesia.
Sea Ltd (SE US)'s move into digital payments in South -East Asia under SeaMoney and ShopeePay in Indonesia continues to see strong momentum.  The mobile wallet total payment volume saw total payment volume triple in 1Q2021 to US$3.4bn. 
The company is also expanding the offline use-cases for ShopeePay most recently extending use to Indomaret in Indonesia, the largest mini-market operator in the country.

Sea Ltd (SE US)'s move into food delivery through ShopeeFood and evidence suggests that it has already had a strong reception to its launch in Jakarta, with growth similar to that in other categories.

This latest set of results provides further proof of the success of the Sea Ltd (SE US) growth model which generates huge EBITDA from gaming and reinvests that money into growing the company's e-commerce and digital finance businesses, whilst maintaining the investment momentum into the gaming cash cow, buy pushing out into new geographies such as India.



Sea Ltd (SE US) continues to standout as the best way to play the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by the popularity of its self developed game Free Fire and its gaming business, together with its move into digital payments a third leg to future growth.

Sea Ltd (SE US) valuations are higher than its listed peers on 13x and 9x EV/Sales for FY21E and FY22E respectively but it is growing at more than twice the pace in terms of sales to justify this. The market is also paying a premium for its unique financing plus its market leadership and strong track record on execution, with 11 consecutive quarters of triple-digit growth.

















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<p>After the failed attempt to merge with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek</a> and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a> has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>. It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.</p>
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<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener"></a></p>
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<p>In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a> has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-rakyat-indonesia-persero" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:484:1" rel="noopener">Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ)</a>. </p>
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<p>Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. </p>
<p>The merged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tokopedia-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24239:1" rel="noopener">Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ)</a> entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a>, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab</a> SPAC listing.</p>
<p>Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.</p>
<p>From a SotP point of view for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/elang-mahkota-teknologi-tbk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7752:1" rel="noopener">Emtek (EMTK IJ)</a>, it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a>, which would suggest potential significant upside from here.</p>
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After the failed attempt to merge with Gojek and the decision to take the SPAC route to market in the US, Grab (0967655D SP) has now reportedly taken a 4% stake in local digital and media powerhouse, Emtek (EMTK IJ). It seems unlikely that this is purely a strategic stake and points the way toward future collaboration potentially in a number of areas.

Emtek (EMTK IJ) remains a very interesting locally listed alternative to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments under one roof, with aspirations to emulate the success of  Sea Ltd (SE US).

In another related and interesting turn, Bukalapak, which is Indonesia's 3rd largest e-commerce firm 35% owned by Emtek (EMTK IJ) has raised an undisclosed sum from BRI Ventures, the venture capital arm of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ). 

Bukalapak claims that it now has around 13.5m MSMEs on its platform and over 100m users on its online to offline (O20) platform. 
The merged Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Tokopedia PT (1087142D IJ) entity to be named "GoTo" will be a formidable competitor for Grab, a risk not highlighted enough in the seeming euphoria around the Grab SPAC listing.
Another significant risk to Grab comes from recently launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia, which will directly impact Grab's (and Gojek's) food delivery business in Indonesia.
From a SotP point of view for Emtek (EMTK IJ), it is difficult to get much beyond a US$4bn valuation but there are those arguing that it should be valued along the same lines as Sea Ltd (SE US), which would suggest potential significant upside from here.









Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

<p>Shopee, the e-commerce arm of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> has quietly launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia. This could potentially pose a threat to both <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gojek" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">Gojek (1379371D IJ)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grabtaxi-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26950:1" rel="noopener">Grab (0967655D SP)</a>, which currently dominate the food delivery market between them. </p>
<p>The two incumbent players do have a head start and an edge on logistics. ShopeePay's success in digital payments shows the company's ability to grab share quickly, suggesting that the firm’s new food delivery unit could be a force to be reckoned with.</p>
<p>There will also be synergies with ShopeePay, which could potentially provide discounts and cashback but overall it will help to increase the stickiness of the Shopee App.</p>
<p>The total gross merchandise value of the food delivery market in Indonesia reportedly amounted to US$3.7bn in 2020. If we were to assume that the market can grow by +15% in 2021 to US$4.2bn and Shopee could take 25% of the market then it could be worth US$1bn in GMV to Shopee.</p>
<p>Shopee certainly has the financial capacity to hire drivers, with the ShopeeFood Driver app, which is available on the google store already has over 100,000 downloads. Onboarding big and small will be key</p>
<p>Shopee’s biggest advantage over competitors remains its strength in terms of funding, given that it generates huge amounts of cash through its gaming business. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> could now decide to channel resources into Shopee Food to grow that business rapidly.</p>
<p>It is early days for Shopee Food but it has the potential to be another revenue driver for the company, which will underpin future growth and hence its premium valuations. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sea-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8509:1" rel="noopener">Sea Ltd (SE US)</a> trades on 13.3x FY21E EV/Sales and 9.5x FY22E EV/sales, with estimated sales growth of +78.8% and +38.4% for FY21E and FY22E respectively. </p>
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Shopee, the e-commerce arm of Sea Ltd (SE US) has quietly launched ShopeeFood in Indonesia. This could potentially pose a threat to both Gojek (1379371D IJ) and Grab (0967655D SP), which currently dominate the food delivery market between them. 
The two incumbent players do have a head start and an edge on logistics. ShopeePay's success in digital payments shows the company's ability to grab share quickly, suggesting that the firm’s new food delivery unit could be a force to be reckoned with.
There will also be synergies with ShopeePay, which could potentially provide discounts and cashback but overall it will help to increase the stickiness of the Shopee App.
The total gross merchandise value of the food delivery market in Indonesia reportedly amounted to US$3.7bn in 2020. If we were to assume that the market can grow by +15% in 2021 to US$4.2bn and Shopee could take 25% of the market then it could be worth US$1bn in GMV to Shopee.
Shopee certainly has the financial capacity to hire drivers, with the ShopeeFood Driver app, which is available on the google store already has over 100,000 downloads. Onboarding big and small will be key
Shopee’s biggest advantage over competitors remains its strength in terms of funding, given that it generates huge amounts of cash through its gaming business. Sea Ltd (SE US) could now decide to channel resources into Shopee Food to grow that business rapidly.
It is early days for Shopee Food but it has the potential to be another revenue driver for the company, which will underpin future growth and hence its premium valuations. Sea Ltd (SE US) trades on 13.3x FY21E EV/Sales and 9.5x FY22E EV/sales, with estimated sales growth of +78.8% and +38.4% for FY21E and FY22E respectively. 







Sea Ltd (SE US) - The Stickiness of Shopee Food

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats, Moat Investing

Moat Investing

Analysis on GARP with strong economic moats

We are a group of experienced investors that like to dig deeper into stocks to find growth stories at a reasonable price with strong economic moats. We also aim to conduct high-quality analysis by doing deep dive on valuations, key business drivers, risk/reward, and different future scenarios.

GARP with strong economic moats

<ul><li>Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections.</li><li>The company is scaling up very fast and, in Q4, posted over 140% y/y growth in GMV (from 127% in Q3).</li><li>Russia has one of the lowest e-commerce penetrations around 6% in line with LatAm) but it relies on an 83% internet penetration with 113 mln users (first in Europe).</li><li>Ozon has recently launched a loan and a credit service dedicated to its marketplace participants (Ozon platform and Ozon.Card) in the effort to support further users' adoption of its services and high order frequency.</li><li>The valuation seems compelling as the stock is trading at 3.6x Ev/Sales 2022e. We estimate an equity value in the region of $15,6bn, which delivers $75.2 per share with a potential upside of around 34.</li></ul>

Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections.The company is scaling up very fast and, in Q4, posted over 140% y/y growth in GMV (from 127% in Q3).Russia has one of the lowest e-commerce penetrations around 6% in line with LatAm) but it relies on an 83% internet penetration with 113 mln users (first in Europe).Ozon has recently launched a loan and a credit service dedicated to its marketplace participants (Ozon platform and Ozon.Card) in the effort to support further users' adoption of its services and high order frequency.The valuation seems compelling as the stock is trading at 3.6x Ev/Sales 2022e. We estimate an equity value in the region of $15,6bn, which delivers $75.2 per share with a potential upside of around 34.

Ozon Holdings: A Gem Of The Russian E-Commerce Industry

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.</p></div><div><p>Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.</p></div><div><p>I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: </p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-positives-fast-growth-sticky-customers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers</a>, </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-the-negatives-horrendous-data-disclosures-including-no-mention-of-ott-launch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-fair-bit-of-competition-but-it-s-doing-better-than-most-local-peers" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-pre-ipo-earnings-forecast-and-valuation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-momentum-play-unequal-lock-up-index-inclusion" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion</a></li>
</ul></div>

Coupang, one of the largest product e-commerce players in Korea, aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the valuation at the revised price range.Coupang offers its 14.8m customers a wide range of owned-inventory selection. In addition, on its marketplace it also offers millions of SKUs sourced from over 200,000 merchants. Apart from normal e-commerce operation, it also provides its customers with: grocery offering, Rocket Fresh; logistics food delivery offering, Coupang Eats; and digital financial services, Coupang Pay.I've covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier insights: 

Coupang Pre-IPO - The Positives - Fast Growth, Sticky Customers, 
Coupang Pre-IPO - The Negatives - Horrendous Data Disclosures, Including No Mention of OTT Launch
Coupang Pre-IPO - Fair Bit of Competition but It’s Doing Better than Most Local Peers
Coupang Pre-IPO - Earnings Forecast and Valuation
Coupang IPO - Momentum Play, Unequal Lock-Up, Index Inclusion


Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

Brazil

MercadoLibre, Inc. operates an online trading site for the Latin American markets. The Company's website allows businesses and individuals to list items, conduct sales, and purchases online in either a fixed-price and auction format. MercadoLibre offers classified advertisements for motor vehicles, vessels, aircraft, and real estate, as well as online payment services.

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MercadoLibre (MELI US)

Sea Ltd - Supercharged

Sea Ltd (SE US) is the best way to proxy for the explosive growth in e-commerce in South East Asia, funded by its gaming revenue, with its move...

Angus Mackintosh

Emtek (EMTK IJ) - The Indonesian Digital Game of Thrones

EMTEK remains the largest locally listed proxy to play digital media, e-commerce, and digital payments in Indonesia. The news that Grab has taken a...

Angus Mackintosh

Sea Ltd (SE US) - The Stickiness of Shopee Food

The launch of ShopeeFood in Indonesia potentially represents a threat to Gojek and Grab but also a potential future growth engine for Sea Ltd in...

Angus Mackintosh

Ozon Holdings: A Gem Of The Russian E-Commerce Industry

Ozon Holdings is an e-commerce platform operating in Russia that offers the broadest multi-category product selections. The company is scaling up...

Moat Investing

Coupang IPO - Quick Note - Peers Move Down, Range Moves Up. Ripe for Trading.

Coupang,aims to raise up to US$4.0bn in its US listing via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares. In this note, we’ll talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

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