Asia biased macro & technical analysis, Untying The Gordian Knot

Untying The Gordian Knot

Asia biased macro & technical analysis

A differentiated process with a primary focus on Asia. Technical Analysis as core and Macro drivers that could bring the view to fruition & changes that could make the idea fall apart. The objective is to be the best in class, hence corner shop.

Technical Analysis

Country Garden Holdings Co / Technical Analysis

<ul><li>The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.</li><li>What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.</li><li>The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.</li></ul>

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main drivers of the continued rally early in the week.What has been very different in this rally is the robust Southbound Inflows indicating strong interest from mainland investors but (yes, there is always one) it does not tie up the sharp rise in short-end HIBOR.The HIBOR rise could be due to the drawdown of the large-margin loan in support of this rally. I have not found data to support or rebuff such a thesis.

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

Articles from Caixin Global, Caixin Global

Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

Caixin is a media group dedicated to providing financial and business news through periodicals, online content, mobile apps, conferences, books and TV/video programs. Caixin aims to blaze a trail that helps traditional media prosper in the new media age through integrated multimedia platforms.

News from Caixin

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li><p>In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market</p></li><li><p>Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20</p></li><li><p>Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation</p></li></ul>

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest marketXi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20Indonesia IT minister plays up opportunities in country’s digital transformation

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.</li><li>Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.</li><li>We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. </li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Consumption sentiment and offline activities’ recovery pace continued to weigh on internet sector’s 3Q financials performance.Looking into 4Q and 2023, business model robustness, operating leverage improvement, and ability to expand into new revenue streams will be the key stock alpha drivers, while the heavily under-owned China Internet sector will remain sensitive to policies and other sentiment related beta drivers.We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><ul><li>Long-term UE expansion for FD business remains on track.</li><li><p>ISHT: awaits operational recovery next year.</p></li><li><p><span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">New businesses: eyes on UE improvement for Meituan Select in the ST, and business model evolvement over the long term.</span></p></li></ul></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Long-term UE expansion for FD business remains on track.ISHT: awaits operational recovery next year.New businesses: eyes on UE improvement for Meituan Select in the ST, and business model evolvement over the long term.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan (3690 HK) – Balancing Growth and Efficiency

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.</li><li>4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.</li><li>Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.4Q is unlikely to be a big surprise as property and its supply chain (20-30% of GDP) will still be the major drag that could neutralize the still resilient auto and gradually recovering consumption.Together with more market volatility from pandemic and CPC meeting, we recommend investors to avoid one-sided long or short, but focus on pair trade opportunities to play the difference of BtoC over BtoB as BtoB is more vulnerable in terms of bad debts and pricing power than BtoC amid weak macro.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

China

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited engages in sales of duty free goods and tax goods. The Company sells tobacco, wine and spirits, perfume, cosmetics, fashion and accessories, watches, jewelry, food, luggage products,and other products. China Tourism Group Duty Free also engages in investment and development of tourism destination commercial complexes.

China Tourism Group Duty Free Corp Ltd (601888 CH)

Huazhu Group Limited operates a hotel operator and franchisor. The Company provides hotel leasing, directly hotel operation, and co-development services. Huazhu Group mainly conducts businesses in China.

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. operates Chinese cuisine restaurant brand focusing on hot pot cuisine. The Company provides hot pots, soup bases, dipping sauces, drinks, prepared food, and other products. Haidilao International Holding opens restaurants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.

Songcheng Performance Development Co., LTD invests, develops and operates theme parks and tourism cultural performing arts. The Company's major projects include the Sungcheng theme park and the cultural performing arts musical "The Romance of the Song Dynasty".

Songcheng Performance Development (300144 CH)

Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited operates as an online travel agency. The Company provides transportation ticketing, accommodation reservation, value added travel products sales, and other services. Tongcheng Travel Holdings provides its services throughout China.

Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels Co.,Ltd. owns and operates hotels.  The Company also provides catering, business, entertainment, and other services. Shanghai Jinjiang International Hotels conducts its business in China.

Shanghai Jinjiang Internationa (600754 CH)

BTG Hotels (Group) Co., Ltd. operates a tourism business.  The Company also invests in hotel and restaurant management, as well as provides advertising and exhibition center management services.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co Ltd invests in and manages theme parks in China.  The Company, through its subsidiaries, also provides travel agency service.

Shenzhen Overseas Chinese (A) (000069 CH)

Giant Network Group Co., Ltd. develops online games. The Company mainly develops, operates, and sells computer terminal network game and mobile terminal network game products. Giant Network Group provides services in China.

China CYTS Tours Holding Co., Ltd. provides travel information and arrangement services.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company also manufactures medical instrument, provides system integration services for the insurance industry, and develops real estate.

Sands China Ltd. develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts, retail malls, and casinos. The Company also manages convention and exhibition halls in Macau.

Galaxy Entertainment Group Limited, through its subsidiary, operates casino, hotel and other entertainment facilities in Macau. The company also manufactures sells and distributes construction materials.

Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns and operates casino resorts and convention centers. The Company operates in the United States, Macau and Singapore. Las Vegas Sand Corp's casinos offer a wide range of gaming activities and entertainment as well as overnight accommodations, while its expo centers host a wide range of entertainment shows, expositions, and other activities.

Yum! Brands, Inc, owns and franchises quick-service restaurants worldwide.  The Company develops, operates, franchises and licenses a worldwide system of restaurants which prepare, package and sell a menu of food items.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. is a global cruise company operating a fleet of vessels in the cruise vacation industry. The Company operates through brands which primarily serve the contemporary, premium and deluxe segments of the cruise vacation industry, which also includes the budget and luxury segments.

Hyatt Hotels Corp. is a global hospitality company. The Company manages, franchises, owns, and develops branded hotels, resorts and residential and vacation ownership properties around the world.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. owns and operates quick serve Mexican restaurants. The Company manages restaurants throughout the United States.

Marriott International Inc. is a worldwide operator and franchisor of hotels. The Company franchises lodging facilities and vacation timesharing resorts under various brand names. Marriott also provides services to home and condominium owner associations for projects associated with several of its brands.

Wingstop Inc. owns and operates restaurants. The Company specializes in cooked-to-order, hand-sauced, and tossed chicken wings. Wingstop serves customers worldwide.

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates a network of Company-owned and franchise Domino's Pizza stores, located throughout the United States and in other countries.  The Company also operates regional dough manufacturing and distribution centers in the contiguous United States and outside the United States.

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

HIBOR, Country Garden, Meituan, Tencent, and HSBC

The headlines of sweeping changes in the property market easing and Xi’s G-20 meetings to signal the thawing of foreign relationships were the main...

Untying The Gordian Knot

CX Daily: Rival Ride-Hailing Apps Challenge Didi in World’s Biggest Market

In Depth: Rival ride-hailing apps challenge Didi in world’s biggest market. Xi calls for improved China-Australia relations at G-20.

Caixin Global

China Internet Sector – 3Q22 preview: near term bumpy recovery

We expect leading technology companies will play vital role in building digital infrastructure and empowering enterprise digital transformation.

CMB International

Meituan (3690 HK) – Balancing Growth and Efficiency

ISHT: awaits operational recovery next year. New businesses: eyes on UE improvement for Meituan Select in the ST, and business model evolvement...

CMB International

Cross sector report – Post-Golden Week: More positive on BToC recovery potential; Cautious on BToB

Golden week data missed market’s already low expectation for all three major categories - property sales, domestic tourism spending and auto sales.

CMB International

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