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Caixin Global

Articles from Caixin Global

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1）</li><li>Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testing</li><li>Cold snap in Northwest China leaves livestock trapped and herdsmen missing</li></ul>

Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1）Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testingCold snap in Northwest China leaves livestock trapped and herdsmen missing

CX Daily: China Lines Up Yet More Aid for the Property Sector, But Will It Be Enough? (Part 1）

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Meituan reported (25 November) its 3Q22 results: revenue was RMB62.6bn, up 28.2% YoY, 0.9/0.4% higher than our forecast and consensus estimate.</li><li>Adjusted net profit during 3Q22 reached RMB3.5bn (3Q21: loss of RMB5.5bn), better than our/consensus forecast of RMB1.5/0.8bn, mainly on better-thanexpected profit from core local commerce business segment, and narrowerthan-expected loss from new initiatives and others.</li><li>Recent pandemic resurgence nationwide likely brings short-term headwind to Meituan, and management aims to drive for continuous YoY profitability improvement through optimization in user subsidy and more efficient business operation for new initiatives. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan reported (25 November) its 3Q22 results: revenue was RMB62.6bn, up 28.2% YoY, 0.9/0.4% higher than our forecast and consensus estimate.Adjusted net profit during 3Q22 reached RMB3.5bn (3Q21: loss of RMB5.5bn), better than our/consensus forecast of RMB1.5/0.8bn, mainly on better-thanexpected profit from core local commerce business segment, and narrowerthan-expected loss from new initiatives and others.Recent pandemic resurgence nationwide likely brings short-term headwind to Meituan, and management aims to drive for continuous YoY profitability improvement through optimization in user subsidy and more efficient business operation for new initiatives. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Meituan (3690 HK) – Long-term development intact despite short-term headwinds

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>Meituan reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue increased 28.2% YoY to RMB62.6bn (vs consensus RMB62.3bn) while reported an OP of RMB988m (consensus OP loss of RMB935m) for the first time since 3Q2019.</li>
<li>However, on adjusted basis, Meituan made an adjusted operating loss of RMB1.1bn (1.7% of revenue) of revenues compared to an adjusted operating loss of RMB7.7bn (15.1% of revenue) in 3Q2022.</li>
<li>Tencent announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends and Naspers is expected to sell the Meituan Shares it receives from Tencent.</li>
</ul>


Meituan reported 3Q2022 results. Revenue increased 28.2% YoY to RMB62.6bn (vs consensus RMB62.3bn) while reported an OP of RMB988m (consensus OP loss of RMB935m) for the first time since 3Q2019.
However, on adjusted basis, Meituan made an adjusted operating loss of RMB1.1bn (1.7% of revenue) of revenues compared to an adjusted operating loss of RMB7.7bn (15.1% of revenue) in 3Q2022.
Tencent announced that it will distribute majority of its shareholding on Meituan (3690 HK) to its shareholders in dividends and Naspers is expected to sell the Meituan Shares it receives from Tencent.


Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone.</li>
<li>A tactical bounce back to 165 is on the cards with 168/75 the high degree sell barrier. Secondary trendline resistance rests near 185 as the bigger sell zone.</li>
<li>The bearish rising wedge stands out as the dominant force. The support break warns of fallout after a bounce attempt back to 168. A weak bounce would turn near 160.</li>
</ul>


Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone.
A tactical bounce back to 165 is on the cards with 168/75 the high degree sell barrier. Secondary trendline resistance rests near 185 as the bigger sell zone.
The bearish rising wedge stands out as the dominant force. The support break warns of fallout after a bounce attempt back to 168. A weak bounce would turn near 160.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You could imagine people covering their short in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a> now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. </li>
<li>If you buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a> outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.</li>
<li>It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> /<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.</li>
</ul>


You could imagine people covering their short in Meituan (3690 HK) now. The Hang Seng sell flow on 4 January 2023 is insignificant. But there will be more overhang later. 
If you buy Link Administration (LNK AU) outright, you are buying a package of three potential future takeout targets.
It's not certain the scrip terms will continue as stated in the DTAC /True merger, but if they change at all, that would almost certainly require a new shareholder meeting.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

CX Daily: China Lines Up Yet More Aid for the Property Sector, But Will It Be Enough? (Part 1）

Cover Story: China lines up yet more aid for the property sector, but will it be enough? (Part 1). Guangzhou spares homebound from mass Covid testing

Caixin Global

Meituan (3690 HK) – Long-term development intact despite short-term headwinds

Meituan reported (25 November) its 3Q22 results: revenue was RMB62.6bn, up 28.2% YoY, 0.9/0.4% higher than our forecast and consensus estimate.

CMB International

Meituan: New Reporting Structure Conceals Loss-Making Businesses and Hard to Assess Core Businesses

Meituan reported OP during 3Q2022, however, we are not convinced. Meituan does not disclose main KPIs for core businesses, hence we are unable to...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Meituan 105 Buy Support

Meituan (3690 HK) has some big resistance hurdles to overcome and will act as tactical sell levels to seek out the 105 buy zone. Macro trend...

Thomas Schroeder

Last Week in Event SPACE: Meituan, Link Admin/Pexa, DTAC/True, Medley

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

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