Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. </li>
<li>We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hscei-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-changes-likely-us-276mn-one-way" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104329" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way</a> </li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.</li>
</ul>


In three more weeks, the index changes and the indicative capping changes for the September 2023 rebalance will be officially announced. 
We first looked at the potential HSCEI index changes and the resultant capping flows for September 2023 in Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two Changes Likely, US$276mn One-Way 
In this insight, we take a look at Quiddity's updated flow expectations which account for the changes in prices in the last ~1.5 months.


Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-hstech-sep-23-flow-expectations-two-adds-dels-possible" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:104332" rel="noopener">Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible</a>, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.</li>
<li>The suggested (previous insight) SHORT <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-healthcare-and-technol" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27008:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK)</a> is down 10.6% vs the hedge <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jd-health-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29677:1" rel="noopener">JD Health International (6618 HK)</a> in ~1.5 months. </li>
<li>In this insight, I have presented my <em>updated flow expectations</em> and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.</li>
</ul>


In Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations: Two ADDs/DELs Possible, I discussed my initial flow expectations and potential index changes for the September 2023 Rebalance.
The suggested (previous insight) SHORT Ping An Healthcare and Technol (1833 HK) is down 10.6% vs the hedge JD Health International (6618 HK) in ~1.5 months. 
In this insight, I have presented my updated flow expectations and some new trade ideas for the next few weeks.


Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Catering was the top growing consumption category in July (-/-/-/+)</li>
<li>1810.HK/2454.TT: Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference (+)</li>
<li>Property sector update: New home sales in July remain weak, and expect the landing of supportive policies（/）</li>
</ul>


BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK: Catering was the top growing consumption category in July (-/-/-/+)
1810.HK/2454.TT: Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference (+)
Property sector update: New home sales in July remain weak, and expect the landing of supportive policies（/）


China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/1810.HK/2454.TT/BEKE-Catering Was the Top Growing Category

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a> are high probability deletions in September, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com (9961 HK)</a> is a high probability inclusion.</li>
<li>The second add could be <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beigene-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27352:1" rel="noopener">BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK)</a> if it passes the velocity test. If not, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a> will be added.</li>
<li>With the exception of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zhongsheng-group-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10573:1" rel="noopener">Zhongsheng Group (881 HK)</a>, short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.</li>
</ul>



Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Zhongsheng Group (881 HK) are high probability deletions in September, while Trip.com (9961 HK) is a high probability inclusion.
The second add could be BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) if it passes the velocity test. If not, Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK) will be added.
With the exception of Zhongsheng Group (881 HK), short interest has been rising on all the other stocks and could affect how the stocks trade close to implementation date.


HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

<p>Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.</p>In this Insight:<ol><li><a href='/entities/country-garden-holdings-co' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Country Garden Holdings Co</a></li><li><a href='/entities/longfor-properties' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Longfor Properties</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sino-ocean-group-holding-limited' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sino-Ocean Group</a></li><li><a href='/entities/china-sce-group-holdings-ltd' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>China SCE</a></li><li><a href='/entities/sunny-optical-technology-group' target='_blank' rel='noopener'>Sunny Optical Technology Group</a></li></ol>and more...

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and also showcase a list of the most-read reports.In this Insight:Country Garden Holdings CoLongfor PropertiesSino-Ocean GroupChina SCESunny Optical Technology Groupand more...

China

Meituan operates as a web based shopping platform for locally found consumer products and retail services. The Company offers deals of the day by selling vouchers on local services and entertainment, dining, delivery, and other services. Meituan provides its services throughout China.

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Meituan (3690 HK)

Quiddity HSCEI Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: US$367mn One-Way, Beigene Vs Peers Interesting

I see BeiGene Ltd (6160 HK) as a high conviction ADD and Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) as a high conviction DEL. Separately, I see...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity HSTECH Sep 23 Flow Expectations Update: Last Trade Sucessful; Some New Trade Ideas

The HSTECH Sep 23 index changes could be announced after the close on Friday 18th August 2023. I expect two ADDs and two DELs during the Sep 23...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

China TMT Update-BABA/VIPS/JD/PDD/3690.HK/1810.HK/2454.TT/BEKE-Catering Was the Top Growing Category

Catering was the top growing consumption category in July;Xiaomi launches new products at annual Lei Jun conference; New home sales in July remain...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

HSCEI Index Rebalance Preview: Deletions Fairly Certain; Uncertainty Among the Adds

The two potential adds have outperformed the two potential deletes by 42% since end May and by 52% since end June. Shorts have jumped on Beigene...

Brian Freitas

Weekly Wrap - 11 Aug 2023

Lucror Analytics Weekly Wraps provide an overview of all Morning Views comments and reports published by our analyst team in the past week, and...

Lucror Analytics

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