Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements throughout most of Europe and the UK, along with strength in China over the past 2-3 months. We believe these positive developments are supportive of higher equity prices moving forward. We provide a technical appraisal of all major markets.The STOXX 600 Banks and Insurance Sectors are exhibiting bullish price inflections and RS indicates these areas may be emerging as leadership. In today’s report we highlight actionable stocks throughout the int’l Financial Sector.

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

Global Head of Research, Smartkarma

Mark Artherton

Global Head of Research

LR Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Note:  The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.<div class="content-highlight">1.  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/6290" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6290:1">Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK)</a> parent the Fung Group is revamping its <a href="https://www.fungacademy.com/stories/innovation-experimentation/explorium-%E2%80%93-playground-future-retail" target="_blank">Explorium project</a> in Shanghai - a space that allows tech startups that focus on supply chain management and fashion to experiment.  Despite a recent recovery, the Li &amp; Fung share price remains well below its highs.  The revamp has been labeled as a soft launch, but a new push in this direction could be beneficial to Fung group companies.  Li &amp; Fung…</div>

Note:  The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.1.  Li &amp; Fung Ltd (494 HK) parent the Fung Group is revamping its Explorium project in Shanghai - a space that allows tech startups that focus on supply chain management and fashion to experiment.  Despite a recent recovery, the Li &amp; Fung share price remains well below its highs.  The revamp has been labeled as a soft launch, but a new push in this direction could be beneficial to Fung group companies.  Li &amp; Fung…

Independent Insight Provider

Stewart Paterson

Taurus Advisors LLP

Macroeconomics

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with his commanding the sea to retreat and ending up with wet feet. The tide, it turned out, would obey none, not even a successful King and empire builder. The story is often represented as one of human folly and hubris. The power- mad ruler who thought he could command nature. In fact the reverse is true. Cnut was specifically setting out to teach his…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely peak in January / February but will likely not moderate much until May/June.  CPI rose from 7% YoY to 8.53% YoY in December but perhaps most alarmingly core CPI rose from 6.99% to 7.48%. In consequence bond yields have started to widen again in Turkey and given the heavy reliance on foreign bond purchases to fund the stock of debt, the currency has come…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the dollar and has the potential to break its 2 year consolidation and move towards parity very fast. In March 2015 it traded at 1.0460 and a break of that level might send the dollar flying higher. My sense though is that the next big move up in the dollar will have more to do with bad news elsewhere, than positive news on the US. Having said that today we…

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

Taiwan

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

China Development Financial Holding Corporation is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides industrial banking and trust services, including direct investment, corporate lending, underwriting, corporate finance and advise, asset management, and securities trading.

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

Bank of Beijing Company Ltd. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers short-, medium- and long-term loans, insurance, foreign exchange, international settlement, government bonds, and other products and services.

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

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Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

MSCI ACWI Ex-U.S. Breaking Topside Its Downtrend: Europe & The UK Look Attractive

The MSCI ACWI ex-U.S. is breaking topside its nearly 14-month downtrend and above key resistance. The move is being fueled by improvements...

Vermilion Research

21 Things Worth Knowing Today (Issue 3)

Note: The weekend edition of '21 things' tends to be lighter with less analysis.1. Li & Fung Ltd (494 HK) parent the Fung Group is revamping...

Mark Artherton

Money Matters: King Cnut and the PBOC.

King Cnute (995-1035) is largely recognized as one of the most effective of kings in the Anglo-Saxon period. His name is most often associated with...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Turkey on the Brink?

Inflation data released in Turkey today is not encouraging. PPI rose nearly 3% MoM and now stands at 9.94% YoY. Oil price inflation will likely...

Stewart Paterson

Money Matters: Is the RMB About to Shoot?

At the time of writing the US Dollar is flirting with several support/resistance levels on charts. The Euro is oscillating around 1.05 to the...

Stewart Paterson

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