Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

S&P BSE SENSEX Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.</li>
<li>We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.</li>
<li>We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged as we continue to expect broad-based consolidation with $93 capping upside on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), while important downside targets are $86, $84, and $75-77.
We still recommend tactical overweight to defensives including gold miners and MSCI ACWI Staples, Health Care, and Utilities, given ACWI-US remains near the top of our expected 2023 trading range.
We are now starting to see broad-based improvement, particularly in Japan and India, but also in Taiwan and South Korea. Most of today's buy recommendations are cyclicals in these countries.


Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.</li>
<li>There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


With two weeks left to the cutoff, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
Apart from the adds/deletes, there will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 13.5% and a one-way trade of US$886m.
There are 9 stocks with at least 5 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 12 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Exposure to the Taiwanese Banks sector has been in near constant decline for the best part of the last decade.</li>
<li>Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan funds hold a position, with active managers running near record underweights of -1.06%, on average.</li>
<li>Investors should consider potential catalysts that could improve the investment outlook for banks in Taiwan, given the broad consensus on positioning.</li>
</ul>


Exposure to the Taiwanese Banks sector has been in near constant decline for the best part of the last decade.
Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan funds hold a position, with active managers running near record underweights of -1.06%, on average.
Investors should consider potential catalysts that could improve the investment outlook for banks in Taiwan, given the broad consensus on positioning.


<ul>
<li>Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.</li>
<li>There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.</li>
<li>There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


Using data from the close on 19 April, there could be 5 changes to the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June.
There will also be capping and funding flows that will lead to a one-way turnover of 13.6% and a one-way trade of US$885m.
There are 10 stocks with at least 3 days ADV to trade from passive trackers and another 10 stocks that have at least 1 day ADV to trade.


Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.</li>
<li>Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.</li>
<li>Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.</li>
</ul>


The 200 largest weighted companies in the GEM index reported average EPS growth of +14.2%y/y for 4Q22-to-date, slightly down from the +15.7% reported for 3Q22.
Only 54% of companies delivered positive sales surprises, and only 49% delivered positive EPS surprises, significantly down from the trend seen over the past 2 years.
Historically, there has been a significant difference in relative share price performance between the largest positive versus negative surprise generators, for 3 months after the reporting date.


Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

Taiwan

CTBC Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides a variety of banking and financial services, including deposit, loan, guarantee, international banking, trust banking, credit card, investment banking, safety deposit box, and Internet banking services.

E.Sun Financial Holding Company Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides banking, brokerage and dealer services.

First Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, provides loans and discount, letters of credit, and guarantee services, invests in marketable securities, provides securities brokerage and investment services, as well as provides insurance services.

Taiwan Cooperative Financial Holding, through subsidiaries, offers financial services.  The Company offers commercial banking, asset management, bills finance, and securities brokerage services.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking, savings, trust, and international banking businesses. In addition, the Group also provides insurance services and acts as a dealer, broker, and underwriter for financial securities.

Hua Nan Financial Holdings Co Ltd. (2880 TT)

SinoPac Financial Holdings Co., Ltd. is an investment holding company, formed through Bank SinoPac and SinoPac Securities.

Taishin Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, the Company conducts commercial banking business, such as deposits, loans, discount bills, guarantees, remittances, and foreign exchange transactions.

China Development Financial Holding Corporation is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company provides industrial banking and trust services, including direct investment, corporate lending, underwriting, corporate finance and advise, asset management, and securities trading.

Chang Hwa Commercial Bank provides a broad range of financial services.  The Bank's operations include deposits, short-term and mid-term loans, discount bills, securities brokerage, foreign currency transactions, and trust banking.

The Shanghai Commercial & Savings Bank, Ltd. provides commercial banking services with a global presence. The Bank attracts deposits from the general public and uses those funds to originate a variety of loans. SCSB supports businesses by providing trade financing and foreign exchange services.

CIMB Group Holdings Berhad provides commercial banking and related financial services. The Company and its subsidiaries, operate as a regional universal bank offering a full range of financial products and services, covering corporate and investment banking, consumer banking, treasury, insurance and asset management.

Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The Company offers its products and services in the personal, consumer, corporate, institutional and treasury areas.

Punjab National Bank provides financial services such as corporate and personal banking, industrial finance, agricultural finance, financing of trade and international banking. The Company provides services to domestic conglomerates, medium and small industrial units, exporters, non-resident Indians and multinational companies.

Bank of Baroda owns and operates commercial banks in India.  The Group's banks provide the traditional forms of banking services, including CD's, Credit Card services and a variety of car loans, in addition to gold banking and a range of insurance services.  The Group also owns IBU International Finance Limited, an international banking company in Hong Kong.

Public Bank Berhad provides a range of banking and financial services which include leasing and factoring, stock and futures broking, financing for the purchase of licensed public vehicles, and other financial services. The Group's overseas operations include branches in Hong Kong, Sri Lanka, Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

Bank of Nanjing Co., Ltd. operates commercial banking businesses. The Company offers deposits, loans, settlement, discounting, financial bond issuance, government bond underwriting, bank guarantee, and other related financial services. Bank of Nanjing provides services for enterprises and individuals.

KB Financial Group Inc. (the "Company"), in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on September 29, 2008, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries including Kookmin Bank in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies. The headquarters are located at Seoul, Korea

Bank of Beijing Company Ltd. attracts deposits and offers commercial banking services.  The Bank offers short-, medium- and long-term loans, insurance, foreign exchange, international settlement, government bonds, and other products and services.

China Everbright Bank Company Limited provides banking services. The Company offers deposits, loans, domestic settlement, currency trading, and other services. China Everbright Bank provides its services to individuals, enterprises, and other clients.

Shinkin Central Bank is a central bank for shinkin banks nationwide, operating as a cooperative financial institution.  The Bank has developed businesses in a variety of fields that contribute the shinkin banking industry.  The Bank's services include enhancement of the credit standing, efficient use of shikin bank's surplus funds, and settlement of domestic exchange transaction.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd. is a holding company.  Through its subsidiaries, the Company accepts deposits, issues financial debentures, provides medium and long term loans to enterprises, as well as provides brokerage, dealer and insurance services.

Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

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Mega Financial Holding Co., Ltd (2886 TT)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Banks: Uninvestible?

Exposure to the Taiwanese Banking sector has been in near constant decline for the last decade. Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan investors have...

Steven Holden

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Broad-Based Improvement in India, Add Exposure/Overweight. Buys: Cyclicals in Japan, India, & Taiwan

Seeing broad-based improvement in India #SENSEX -- overweight/add exposure. We still recommend a tactical overweight to ACWI defensives with $ACWI...

Vermilion Research

Yuanta/​​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

With 2 weeks to cutoff, we see 5 changes in June. The deletions are fairly clear, but there are a lot of non-constituents crowded around similar...

Brian Freitas

Taiwan Banks: Uninvestible?

Exposure to the Taiwanese Banking sector has been in near constant decline for the last decade. Just 4.5% of Asia Ex-Japan investors have...

Steven Holden

Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/​P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...

Brian Freitas

Global Emerging Markets: Reporting Season Summary, 4Q2022

In this quarterly insight, we analyse recent GEM reporting trends with reference to Sales and EPS growth, size and percentage of positive...

Wium Malan, CFA

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend+ ETF Preview: Two Weeks to Cutoff

Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF: June Rebalance Preview

There could be 5 changes for the Yuanta/P-Shares Taiwan Dividend Plus ETF in June. There will also be capping/funding flows that will lead to a...