Global Healthcare Analyst

Tina Banerjee

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medley-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31041:1" rel="noopener">Medley (4480 JP)</a> is a safe bet for hiding from the negative impact of strengthening yen. The company should benefit from digital healthcare push from the newly elected Prime Minister.</li>
<li>Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The company guided for 43% YoY revenue growth in 2024.</li>
<li>Continued shortage of human resource, including doctors and nurses at medical care facilities in Japan and underpenetrated market remain the main growth engines of the company.</li>
</ul>



Medley (4480 JP) is a safe bet for hiding from the negative impact of strengthening yen. The company should benefit from digital healthcare push from the newly elected Prime Minister.
Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The company guided for 43% YoY revenue growth in 2024.
Continued shortage of human resource, including doctors and nurses at medical care facilities in Japan and underpenetrated market remain the main growth engines of the company.


Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit

Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Kawasaki Heavy Industries / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. </li>
<li>The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  </li>
<li>Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. </li>
</ul>


Expect continued buying in defense related, as well as banks and life insurance, renewable energy, rails, and medical IT plays with Shigeru Ishiba at the helm. 
The Market will be quick to rotate out of names which spiked into Friday's close on expectation for a Sanae Takaichi win in the LDP election.  
Ishiba has been a vocal critic of Abenomics, and his potential policies aimed at higher taxes for investment incomes and capital gains are set to weigh on the Japanese market. 


Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medley-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31041:1" rel="noopener">Medley (4480 JP)</a> reported better-than-expected 2023 result. Revenue increased 45% YoY to ¥20.5B, EBITDA jumped 77% YoY to ¥3.4B, and net profit increased 152% YoY to ¥2.6B.</li>
<li>The company expects 2024 revenue of ¥27.1B (up 32% YoY) and EBITDA of ¥3.9B (up 15% YoY). However, net profit is expected to remain flat at ¥2.6B in 2024.</li>
<li>Medley has established new mid-term targets. The company aims to achieve an EBITDA of ¥20B on revenue of ¥100B in 2029, representing 5-year revenue CAGR of 30%.</li>
</ul>



Medley (4480 JP) reported better-than-expected 2023 result. Revenue increased 45% YoY to ¥20.5B, EBITDA jumped 77% YoY to ¥3.4B, and net profit increased 152% YoY to ¥2.6B.
The company expects 2024 revenue of ¥27.1B (up 32% YoY) and EBITDA of ¥3.9B (up 15% YoY). However, net profit is expected to remain flat at ¥2.6B in 2024.
Medley has established new mid-term targets. The company aims to achieve an EBITDA of ¥20B on revenue of ¥100B in 2029, representing 5-year revenue CAGR of 30%.


Medley (4480 JP): 2023 Result Beats Guidance; Sees Flat Profit on Double-Digit Sales Growth in 2024

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze</li>
<li>The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation</li>
<li>Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover</li>
</ul>


Big move higher for oil set to spike the JP oil major Inpex although the refiners have large outstanding short interests and may squeeze
The higher oil price is negative for Japan’s utilities which have yet to restart reactors and are dependent on oil/gas imports to fuel their thermal generation
Details are limited on a potential Seven Bank stake sale by 7&amp;I, but there should be room for upside as shorts continue to cover


Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.</li>
<li>This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.</li>
</ul>


For the month of March 2024, 8 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$4bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in March was ~55%. The average premium YTD is ~39%.
This compares to the average premium for transactions in 2023 (117 transactions), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) of 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% respectively.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

Japan

Medley, Inc. operates medical webs. The Company provides medical human resource recruitment, medical system management, online medical treatment, medical information updating, and other services. Medley provides its services throughout Japan.

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Medley (4480 JP)

Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit

Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The...

Tina Banerjee

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Medley (4480 JP): 2023 Result Beats Guidance; Sees Flat Profit on Double-Digit Sales Growth in 2024

Medley reports strong 2023 result with sales, EBITDA, and net profit rising 45%, 77%, and 152%, YoY, respectively. Company sets ambitious mid-term...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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Medley (4480 JP): Strong Base Business; No Fear from Fx; Digital Healthcare Push to Benefit

Although Medley has reported mixed 2Q24 result, with robust topline and declining profitability, the long-term growth potential remains intact. The...

Tina Banerjee

Best Outright and Pair Trades for an Ishiba-Led LDP

How to position in Japanese equities after the surprise win by Shigeru Ishiba over Sanae Takaichi in Friday's LDP election.

Andrew Jackson

Medley (4480 JP): 2023 Result Beats Guidance; Sees Flat Profit on Double-Digit Sales Growth in 2024

​Medley reports strong 2023 result with sales, EBITDA, and net profit rising 45%, 77%, and 152%, YoY, respectively. Company sets ambitious mid-term...

Tina Banerjee

Japan Morning Connection: Spike in Oil Positive for Inpex and Refiners

Surge in oil may squeeze refiners with short interests. Negative for Japanese utilities yet to restart reactors. Potential upside for Seven Bank as...

Andrew Jackson

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Mar 2024: Chilled & Frozen, TDCX, MMA Offshore, JSR, Roland DG, SciClone

For the month of March, 8 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$4bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Medley reports strong 2023 result with sales, EBITDA, and net profit rising 45%, 77%, and 152%, YoY, respectively. Company sets ambitious mid-term...