European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).</li>
<li>Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
<li>Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).
Possible trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Fuchs Petrolub, Henkel, Handelsbanken, SSAB Svenska Stal.
Possible trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Sixt, VW, Danieli, Grifols, Atlas Copco.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Medium-Term, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> is not in great shape fundamentally compared to others We still know nothing about TOPIX. And we may just not hear. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> to take control of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> after <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> throws in the towel.</li>
<li>The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toshiba-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:637:1" rel="noopener">Toshiba Corp (6502 JP)</a> is too. </li>
</ul>


Medium-Term, Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is not in great shape fundamentally compared to others We still know nothing about TOPIX. And we may just not hear. 

Kakao Corp (035720 KS) to take control of S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) after HYBE (352820 KS) throws in the towel.
The world is quite volatile now, and funding is probably more precious today than yesterday. But a bid for Toshiba Corp (6502 JP) is too. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post Bank, S.M Entertainment, Toshiba, Link REIT

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>TL5 holdouts have exposed themselves to being trapped by MFE, which has already shown in the past that it has no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.</li>
<li>The implied exchange values the audiovisual business of TL% at 1.2 EV/22eEBITDA TL5/MFEA spread is +3.02%, I would wait for it to turn negative to open a position.</li>
<li>MFE A shares are trading at a 34.7% discount, which seems excessive nevertheless. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.</li>
</ul>


TL5 holdouts have exposed themselves to being trapped by MFE, which has already shown in the past that it has no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.
The implied exchange values the audiovisual business of TL% at 1.2 EV/22eEBITDA TL5/MFEA spread is +3.02%, I would wait for it to turn negative to open a position.
MFE A shares are trading at a 34.7% discount, which seems excessive nevertheless. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.


MFE/​Mediaset España: Merger Approval, Spread and Delisting

<ul>
<li>MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition of the takeover bid for Mediaset España and acquired all of the shares that accepted the offer (27.23% of the share capital).</li>
<li>MFE will own 82.92% (thus not reaching squeeze-out threshold), the stock is much less liquid now. TV advertising looks increasingly grim in Spain. I would be short up to €2.8/share.</li>
<li>MFE A shares are trading at a 30% discount, which seems excessive. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.</li>
</ul>


MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition of the takeover bid for Mediaset España and acquired all of the shares that accepted the offer (27.23% of the share capital).
MFE will own 82.92% (thus not reaching squeeze-out threshold), the stock is much less liquid now. TV advertising looks increasingly grim in Spain. I would be short up to €2.8/share.
MFE A shares are trading at a 30% discount, which seems excessive. With more A shares coming in the market (and higher liquidity), I would be long MFEA/short MFEB.


MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

<ul>
<li>MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.</li>
<li>The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.</li>
<li>Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.</li>
</ul>


MFE improves the cash component to €2.16/share, taking the package value to €4.75 (6 June). The acceptance period has been suspended; the CNMV will inform of the new acceptance period.
The sweetened price seems more reasonable. The Board of Mediaset España is now minded to recommend the offer, but the low valuation of both companies does not help the deal.
Holdouts may expose themselves to being trapped in a group with an even stronger control by MFE with no qualms about running its subsidiary for its own interests.


MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

Spain

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A., a television broadcaster, conducts television, cinema and music production operations.  The Company owns and operates the Spanish television station Telecinco as well as media and advertising companies.

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. (TL5 SM)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Mediaset España Comunicación, S.A. (TL5 SM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post Bank, S.M Entertainment, Toshiba, Link REIT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

MFE/Mediaset España: Merger Approval, Spread and Delisting

TL5 holdouts have exposed themselves to being trapped by MFE, which has already shown in the past that it has no qualms about running its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition and will own 82.92%. The stock is less liquid now, which together with increasingly grim prospects...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April ‘23 Report

Since mid-March, spreads have generally tightened across our liquid universe (6 have widened, 12 tightened, 1 at same level).

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post Bank, S.M Entertainment, Toshiba, Link REIT

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

MFE/​Mediaset España: Merger Approval, Spread and Delisting

TL5 holdouts have exposed themselves to being trapped by MFE, which has already shown in the past that it has no qualms about running its...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Offer Results and Trade Ideas

MFE waived the minimum acceptance condition and will own 82.92%. The stock is less liquid now, which together with increasingly grim prospects...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/​​Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer

MFE sweetness the offer in small steps to ensure success. It has now increased the cash consideration in order to revive the deal.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

MFE/Mediaset España: Merger Approval, Spread and Delisting

MFE/Mediaset España: Sweetened Offer