Senior Credit Analyst, Lucror Analytics

Leonard Law, CFA

Senior Credit Analyst

High Yield Experts

Lucror Analytics

Lucror Analytics is a leading credit and ESG research specialist and a provider of technology solutions for differentiated fixed income strategies. Our roots are in bottom-up fundamental credit analysis with a specialization in high yield corporate credits from Europe, Asia and Latin America. We are one of few research specialists integrating ESG considerations with fundamental credit research through a dedicated ESG platform. Our ESG assessment covers five key criteria: Disclosure, E,S, & G Pillars, Controversies, ESG Impact on Credit and ESG Momentum.

Recognizing the importance and value-add of Factor Investing in fixed income, Lucror developed the Smart Quant Navigator (SQN), an intuitive platform that helps clients devise and implement factor-based strategies ranging from pure quant to active fundamental, with integrated ESG.

Our company has been at the forefront of developments in the fixed income markets, identifying opportunities and consistently delivering new products and value-adding solutions to clients. Lucror has close relationships with the largest and most reputable asset managers, family offices, hedge funds, investment and wealth managers globally.

Credit

This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks, and discussing specific areas of interest in the "In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market. 

Asia HY Monthly - 2019 In Review And 2020 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi’s 9M/19 earnings were slightly weaker than expected, as the gross margin fell amid higher cash costs and lower realised oil prices. Leverage was in line with expectations, thanks to a slight q-o-q improvement in Debt/EBITDA. We project that full-year Debt/EBITDA will strengthen slightly to c. 5x (LTM 9M/19: 5.4x), albeit remaining weaker than at FYE 2018 (4.8x). We further expect Medco’s FCF to remain negative over the near term, on account of the high capex. That said, cash flow could be supplemented by the company’s non-core asset disposals. Medco may also embark on further acquisitions, considering its relatively short 2P reserve life of nine years. Although the company has ample 2C reserves, these are unproven and will require exploration capex.

  Medco Energi’s 9M/19 earnings were slightly weaker than expected, as the gross margin fell amid higher cash costs and lower realised oil prices. Leverage was in line with expectations, thanks to a slight q-o-q improvement in Debt/EBITDA. We project that full-year Debt/EBITDA will strengthen slightly to c. 5x (LTM 9M/19: 5.4x), albeit remaining weaker than at FYE 2018 (4.8x).   We further expect Medco’s FCF to remain negative over the near term, on account of the high capex. That said, cash flow could be supplemented by the company’s non-core asset disposals. Medco may also embark on further acquisitions, considering its relatively short 2P reserve life of nine years. Although the company has ample 2C reserves, these are unproven and will require exploration capex. 

Medco Energi - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

  The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - December 2019 - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present. The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.

  In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index between January 2014 and the present.   The Asia Monthly focuses on providing updates on recent events, information on new issues and spread movements, as well as summarising our top picks and discussing specific areas of interest in the “In-Focus” section. The Asia Monthly is intended to broaden investors' understanding of the Asian USD high-yield market.  

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index.

   The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also provide relative-value charts and lists of the bonds in the Lucror Asia HY index. 

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

Indonesia

PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk is an integrated energy company. The Company explores for and produces oil and gas both in Indonesia and internationally, operates gas-fired power plants in Panaran I, Batam Island, and develops renewable fuels such as Bio-fuel.

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Medco Energi (MEDC IJ)

Asia HY Monthly - 2019 In Review And 2020 Outlook - Lucror Analytics

This month, we look at the developments of 2019, and in the “In-Focus” section, we discuss the outlook for Asian HY in 2020. The Asia Monthly...

Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi - Earnings Flash - 9M FY 2019 Results - Lucror Analytics

Medco Energi’s 9M/19 earnings were slightly weaker than expected, as the gross margin fell amid higher cash costs and lower realised oil prices....

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - December 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for December includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Monthly - Agency Ratings For Asian Issuers (2019) - Lucror Analytics

In this month's “In-Focus”, we look at agency ratings for Asian issuers, analysing ratings transitions for all issuers in the Lucror Asia HY index...

Lucror Analytics

Asia HY Trade Recommendations - November 2019 - Lucror Analytics

The Asia HY Trade Recommendations report for November includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. We also...

Lucror Analytics

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