Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports</li>
<li>We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.</li>
<li>Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).</li>
</ul>


We are seeing a broad-based snap-back rally after the S&amp;P 500 found support at our 5100-5191 target/bounce area which we discussed in our 7/30/24 and 8/6/24 Compass reports
We are not out of the woods as we still see the $SPX and $QQQ going through a 1- to 4-month pullback/consolidation period, and market dynamics remain far from perfect.
Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX top comparisons are why we expected SPX to find support at 5100, AND THEN test YTD highs (8/13/24 Compass report).


Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

<ul>
<li>We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.</li>
<li>Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.</li>
<li>Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports <em>that are currently being tested</em> would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.</li>
</ul>


We've discussed for months that we'll need to see SPX and NDX (QQQ) close below their 20-day MAs/21-dayEMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days in order to get more cautious.
Today (Tuesday) marks 3 consecutive days as the DXY climbs to test major $106 resistance, and amid 10- and 30-year Treasury yields breaking above long-term resistances. Caution is warranted.
Still, in order for there to be a meaningful pullback, important 2-month supports that are currently being tested would need to break, including 4983-5050 on SPX and $425-$433 on QQQ.


The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.</li>
<li>Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)</li>
<li>Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), as they both refuse to close below their 20-day MAs or 21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days.
Once we do get 2-3 closes below the 20-day MAs on SPX and QQQ, it would mark the beginning of a pullback (a potentially rapid one, at that)
Next supports currently at 4983-5050 on the S&amp;P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24), but anything in the 4800-4930 SPX range is a buyable pullback.


More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

<ul>
<li>On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.</li>
<li>We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.</li>
</ul>


On 3/21/23 we discussed the potential for a 2-5% rally to the 1.5-month downtrend on the SPX, or the 4165-4200 range, which would set up an opportunity to get defensive.
The S&amp;P 500 has gained 4.5% since, but has reversed topside the downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play.
We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023 -- with a reach to 4300-4325 also possible -- but considering limited upside, we recommend shifting toward defensives.


$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).</li>
<li>The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.</li>
</ul>


Our 2023 outlook remains unchanged; we see the market indexes consolidating within broad horizontal ranges, and we expect the top-end of the range to be 4165-4200 on the S&amp;P 500.
The bottom-end of the range is at the 2022 lows (3490). Another possible support level we are monitoring is at the December 2022 lows (3765).
The Russell 2000 (IWM) is testing important support at $170 (the Dec. 2022 lows and the prior downtrend from 2022), suggesting this is a logical time for an oversold bounce.


Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Canada

McEwen Mining Inc. is a gold and silver producer. The Company focuses on the production, development, and exploration of gold and silver mining assets in North America and South America.

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McEwen Mining (MUX US)

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play

Snap-Back Rally Tests YTD Highs; Apr. 2000, Aug. 2007, Feb. 2022 $SPX Top Comparisons Still in Play. These comparisons are why we expected support...

Vermilion Research

The Pullback Finally Begins; SPX and NDX Testing 2-Month Supports; Market Dynamics Shifting

The Pullback Finally Begins; $SPX and $NDX $QQQ Testing 2-Month Supports at 4983-5050 and $425-$433 (2/22/24 gap supports); Market Dynamics...

Vermilion Research

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy, Utilities, Gold Miners; Bullish Outlook Intact

More Long-Term Breakouts in Energy $XLE $RSPG, Utilities $XLU, and Gold Miners $GDX $GDXJ $AEM $RGLD $EGO $SA $IAG; Rally Broadening Out; Bullish...

Vermilion Research

$SPX 4165-4200 in Play; WTI Crude Testing $82 Resistance; Buys in Gold Miners, Waste Services

The $SPX reversed topside the 2-month downtrend, putting a test of 4165-4200 in play. We still believe 4165-4200 will cap upside in 2023;...

Vermilion Research

Russell 2000 (IWM) Testing $170; Downgrading Energy; 10-Yr Treasury Yield Testing 3.4% Support

Our 2023 $SPX outlook remains unchanged: rangebound trade between 4165-4200 and 3490, with Dec. 2022 lows (3765) also possible support. Bears in...

Vermilion Research

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