Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus at the OP line with OP generation of ¥13.6bn significantly above consensus’ ¥4.1bn. What should be taken notice of though is that it did so while missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores what we have been saying for some time – the sellside is completely clueless about Mazda’s evolving profit structure. In our view even the buyside underestimates just how much it has improved.

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus at the OP line with OP generation of ¥13.6bn significantly above consensus’ ¥4.1bn. What should be taken notice of though is that it did so while missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores what we have been saying for some time – the sellside is completely clueless about Mazda’s evolving profit structure. In our view even the buyside underestimates just how much it has improved.

Mazda – Stealth Upgrade and On Track to Blowout

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that once took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above ¥5,000 while it briefly led the automotive world in OPM.

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Electric-cars-in-China/CATL-goes-all-in-on-next-gen-sodium-ion-EV-batteries" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification</a>. We warned as far back as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/a-common-concern-is-there-enough-lithium-to-support-the-expected-growth-in-evs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three and a half years ago</a> that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL continues to invest heavily in material diversification. We warned as far back as three and a half years ago that investors were too complacent about lithium supply and as we head towards the middle of this decade with the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely, CATL appears to be hedging its bets.

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

Mazda results came in barely below our estimates but blew away consensus. Revenue hit ¥803bn (LSR ¥817bn and consensus ¥750bn) while OP hit ¥26.1bn (LSR¥28bn and consensus ¥5.2bn). We believe conditions in North America and Australia will continue to drive robust performance and 1Q was in fact held back by extremely weak volumes in Japan which should rebound. These positives could also result in upside surprises on dividends.

Mazda results came in barely below our estimates but blew away consensus. Revenue hit ¥803bn (LSR ¥817bn and consensus ¥750bn) while OP hit ¥26.1bn (LSR¥28bn and consensus ¥5.2bn). We believe conditions in North America and Australia will continue to drive robust performance and 1Q was in fact held back by extremely weak volumes in Japan which should rebound. These positives could also result in upside surprises on dividends.

Conviction Call Mazda – Blowout Comes Through

Sell side consensus on Mazda is relatively muted as it is the third least favoured stock within the auto sector ahead of Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan, both of whom were loss making at the OP level last FY. In contrast we expect Mazda to have the strongest performance among the auto sector driven by results in North America and Australia and the impact of prior efforts to strengthen their underlying profit structure.

Sell side consensus on Mazda is relatively muted as it is the third least favoured stock within the auto sector ahead of Mitsubishi Motors and Nissan, both of whom were loss making at the OP level last FY. In contrast we expect Mazda to have the strongest performance among the auto sector driven by results in North America and Australia and the impact of prior efforts to strengthen their underlying profit structure.

Conviction Call Mazda – 1Q and FY OP Beats Should Be Biggest in Sector

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Mazda – Stealth Upgrade and On Track to Blowout

Mazda 2Q easily beat consensus OP by 230% despite missing on the top line by 10%. This underscores Mazda’s evolving profit structure which the...

Mio Kato

Mazda – Moving Upmarket With a RWD Is a Straight Six

Mazda is continuing to implement its take on the Subaru revival playbook that took Subaru’s stock from a GFC low around ¥250 all the way above...

Mio Kato

CATL – Sodium-Ion Battery Development Highlights the Issues with Lithium

As we head towards the middle of this decade the prospect of supply crunches for battery grade lithium and nickel looking increasingly likely and...

Mio Kato

Conviction Call Mazda – Blowout Comes Through

Mazda results came in barely below our estimates but blew away consensus. Conditions in North America and Australia should drive robust performance...

Mio Kato

Conviction Call Mazda – 1Q and FY OP Beats Should Be Biggest in Sector

Mazda is up 80% in just over 8 months but we believe the upside potential going forward is even larger and the market is completely missing the...

Mio Kato

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