Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.</li>
<li>A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.</li>
<li>Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.</li>
</ul>


Global fund positioning in the Motor Vehicles sector has entered a fresh decline following a revival between 2020 and 2023.
A record-low 10% of active Global funds are now overweight, with the sector holding an average underweight of -1.41%, making it the 4th largest industry-level underweight among active managers.
Long-Term declines in Japanese autos have hit new lows, while German and US autos have drifted lower since 2023.


Global Autos:  Falling Investor Confidence

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/koito-manufacturing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15841" rel="noopener">Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP)</a> in their <a href="https://substack.com/redirect/9ecb757d-eb06-44b8-836a-e25e2a92658e?j=eyJ1IjoiNGw4bzJ0In0.mRWyfA0pZX4OpuLi73L47WeYJ_ccqy9266JSt_5dbKo" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/redirect/9ecb757d-eb06-44b8-836a-e25e2a92658e?j%3DeyJ1IjoiNGw4bzJ0In0.mRWyfA0pZX4OpuLi73L47WeYJ_ccqy9266JSt_5dbKo&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1731988981096000&amp;usg=AOvVaw28QVMvDwFXl0HOJcCfGTk1" rel="noopener">second-quarter 2024 letter</a>.</li><li>So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.</li><li>What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.</li></ul>

Orbis Japan Equity Fund recently wrote about auto supplier Koito Manufacturing (7276 JP) in their second-quarter 2024 letter.So, who is Koito? It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.What stood out in Orbis’s second-quarter letter is that Koito plans to return JPY 350 billion to shareholders in the next five years, more than half the current market cap. Rational capital allocation is rare in Japan, so this number caught my attention.

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.</li>
<li>Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. </li>
<li>Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.</li>
</ul>


Following up on our earlier cross-shareholding work, in this note we look to summarize our work so far by looking at where most of the selling will likely come.
Of the seven companies that we have looked at so far, collectively they have around US$102bn worth of shares to sell in 118 companies. 
Of these, they have a combined stake of over US$1bn in 23 companies.


Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

<ul>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-motor-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:73:1" rel="noopener">Toyota (7203 JP)</a> having sold some of its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmonic-drive-systems-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10238:1" rel="noopener">Harmonic Drive</a> this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.</li>
<li>Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.</li>
<li>In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.</li>
</ul>


With Toyota (7203 JP) having sold some of its stake in Denso, KDDI and Harmonic Drive this year, it has firmly set the ball rolling for unwinding some of its cross-shareholding.
Toyota has a shareholding in around 60 listed companies, with its combined disposable stake worth over US$26bn.
In this note, we take a look at its stakes in various companies to see which ones could possibly be candidates for further selldowns.


Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven, SC Capital

SC Capital

Global Automotive Stocks/EV Focus/Event Driven

Over 22 years covering Japanese equities on both the sell side and the buy side. 

Bottom-up Japan Equities Research

<ul>
<li>Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  </li>
<li>Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.</li>
<li>Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. </li>
</ul>


Toyota's Q2 EPS undershot estimates by 28%. FY3/23 guidance was kept flat, but given a more favorable assumption for forex tailwinds, Toyota effectively lowered FY3/23 EPS by 7%.  
Management partially admitted to parts of recent media reports that Toyota was overhauling its EV strategy.  Targets of 3.5m BEVs by 2030 are unchanged, but the ramp may be slower.
Toyota's 2H FY3/23 hurdles are low and its auto division's operating profits appear to be bottoming. Stock may still be a laggard, but we're bullish on a 12-month basis. 


Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Japan

Mazda Motor Corporation manufactures and sells automobiles, trucks, auto parts, and its accessories.  The Company operates its business worldwide.

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Mazda Motor (7261 JP)

Global Autos: Falling Investor Confidence

Tesla overtakes Stellantis as the most widely held Auto company. General Motors is ahead of the almost uninvestable Ford Motor Co.

Steven Holden

Koito Mfgr － 2024 Update (7276 JP)

It’s the world’s largest manufacturer of automotive lighting products, serving primarily Japanese customers such as Toyota, Nissan and Honda.

Asian Century Stocks

Japan Cross-Shareholding - Summary Matrix - Over US$100bn of Selling in 118 Companies

Toyotal has just announced that it will buy back around 290m (around 2% of the stock) of its own shares from MS&AD, Tokio Marine, MUFG and SMFG. In...

Sumeet Singh

Toyota Cross-Shareholding - To Say a Whole Lot Is Left Would Be a US$26bn Understatement

Toyota, Toyota Industries and Denso are tag teaming to unwind some of their stake in Aisin, in a deal worth over US$1bn. While the timing of the...

Sumeet Singh

Toyota's Q2 Is a Huge Miss; EV Strategy in Flux

Toyota saw a huge miss in Q2 and admits they're revamping their EV plans. This may seem negative, but it's a huge positive ahead of a recovering...

SC Capital

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