Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates</li>
<li>During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates</li>
<li>As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down</li>
</ul>


Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates
During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates
As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down


Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. </li>
<li>The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.</li>
<li>Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.</li>
</ul>


Japan's domestic credit growth is now running at 4.2% YoY in the latest month in February 2024. 
The slope of Japan's domestic credit growth is greater than all developed Asia Pacific peer countries.
Weaker JPY can further raise interest in tourism, and USD translation of earnings for megabanks.


Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Mizuho Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mizuho-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:219:1" rel="noopener">Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP)</a> can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance</li>
<li>Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.</li>
<li>Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. </li>
</ul>



Mizuho Financial Group (8411 JP) can see higher profit guidance change than many in Japan, the region, given its first quarter was 40% of full-year guidance
Riding JGB yields will support this, with less loans to total financial assets, and the bank has even seen its unrealized losses on JGBs decline. Good ALM.
Credit metrics are better. Its credit costs are in reversal. This can continue or at least remain low. This is supported by granular, macro data. 


Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.</li>
<li>Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.</li>
<li>Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10928:1" rel="noopener">SBI Holdings (8473 JP)</a> is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.</li>
</ul>



SBI Holdings (8473 JP) may not be the easiest company to analyze with its many pages of affiliates, but at the least, it's profit momentum is strong.
Securities Group profit is key to the company where growth is excellent in earnings and in the number of new accounts, across many businesses.
Its two banks in Japan are doing well, growing faster than others, but still SBI Holdings (8473 JP) is more of an alternative financial company to a traditional bank.


SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is tomorrow at the close. This will engender a lot of buying of three names, and a lot of selling of 3 names.  </li>
<li>It will also engender a funding trade of nearly ¥460bn. </li>
<li>I am going to beat the dead horse and warn about certain issues with this rebalance.</li>
</ul>


The September 2023 Nikkei 225 Rebalance is tomorrow at the close. This will engender a lot of buying of three names, and a lot of selling of 3 names.  
It will also engender a funding trade of nearly ¥460bn. 
I am going to beat the dead horse and warn about certain issues with this rebalance.


Japan

MATSUI SECURITIES CO., LTD. provides online brokerage services through its website.  The Company offers investment news and educational services.

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Matsui Securities (8628 JP)

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Earnings are very strong now, especially from mainstay securities business, but also from affilates. It is an interesting alternative financial...

Daniel Tabbush

Nikkei 225 Rebal - Beating a Dead Horse

Tomorrow's Nikkei 225 Rebalance is ¥490bn a side, with ¥460bn of funding trade. Matsui Sec is like a big offering. The three ADDs are all more...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Japan - Domestic Credit Growth Acceleration Higher Than Developed Asian Countries

Japan bank's domestic credit growth is stronger than most others in developed Asia, and the pace of growth is far stronger now compared with early...

Daniel Tabbush

Mizuho - Expect Profit Guidance Surge | JGBs Up, JGBs Unrealized Losses Down | Credit Metrics Better

Mizuho can see major rise in its profit guidance, since it has met 40% of target in first quarter, also due to rising JGB yields, better loan...

Daniel Tabbush

SBI Holdings - Pages of Affiliates | Strong Securities | Banks Doing Well | Accelerating Profit

Earnings are very strong now, especially from mainstay securities business, but also from affilates. It is an interesting alternative financial...

Daniel Tabbush

Nikkei 225 Rebal - Beating a Dead Horse

​Tomorrow's Nikkei 225 Rebalance is ¥490bn a side, with ¥460bn of funding trade. Matsui Sec is like a big offering. The three ADDs are all more...

Travis Lundy

Tomorrow's Nikkei 225 Rebalance is ¥490bn a side, with ¥460bn of funding trade. Matsui Sec is like a big offering. The three ADDs are all more...