TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. </li>
<li>Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.</li>
<li>13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF</li>
</ul>


Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. 
Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.
13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF


Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Match Group is currently operating in a challenging macro-economic environment and its stock price has been tumbling over the past few months.</li><li>Excluding the forex impact, Match Group delivered double-digit growth given the fact that Tinder has been performing quite well.</li><li>We provide the stock of Match Groups with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.</li></ul>

Match Group is currently operating in a challenging macro-economic environment and its stock price has been tumbling over the past few months.Excluding the forex impact, Match Group delivered double-digit growth given the fact that Tinder has been performing quite well.We provide the stock of Match Groups with a ‘Hold’ rating and a revision in the target price.

<ul>
<li>After a massive guidedown last quarter, Match is beginning to show stability in the business, and offered a cautiously optimistic return to growth guide for 2023.</li>
<li>Tinder rebuild underway, 16% FX-Neutral growth was 2% ahead of consensus and drove the quarter's beat.</li>
<li>5-Pronged plan by new CEO Kim seems well thought out for what ails Match.</li>
</ul>


After a massive guidedown last quarter, Match is beginning to show stability in the business, and offered a cautiously optimistic return to growth guide for 2023.
Tinder rebuild underway, 16% FX-Neutral growth was 2% ahead of consensus and drove the quarter's beat.
5-Pronged plan by new CEO Kim seems well thought out for what ails Match.


<ul><li>Match Group had a weak quarter with a below-par growth in the total revenue that resulted in the company failing to meet Wall Street expectations.</li><li>The direct revenue of the company grew in the U.S with strength at Tinder, Chipsa, BLK, and Hinge.</li><li>Additions of Tinder payers came in addition, while the established brands of the company, including Match Infinity brands and Match, Plenty of Fish, OkCupid, and Meetic, declined more than 10% in total.</li></ul>

Match Group had a weak quarter with a below-par growth in the total revenue that resulted in the company failing to meet Wall Street expectations.The direct revenue of the company grew in the U.S with strength at Tinder, Chipsa, BLK, and Hinge.Additions of Tinder payers came in addition, while the established brands of the company, including Match Infinity brands and Match, Plenty of Fish, OkCupid, and Meetic, declined more than 10% in total.

Match Group: The League Acquisition & Other Drivers

<ul>
<li>Match guided down 3Q22 revenues by 10% and EBITDA by 17% and telegraphed continued issues in 4Q, before returning to growth in 2023. </li>
<li>Long list: Tinder mis-execution , Hyperconnect's failure, ongoing reopening issues in Japan, and a tsunami of FX headwinds.  </li>
<li>New CEO Bernard Kim's mobile gaming monetization background informed many of the strategic pivots: exiting investments in virtual currency and metaverse as not realistic.</li>
</ul>


Match guided down 3Q22 revenues by 10% and EBITDA by 17% and telegraphed continued issues in 4Q, before returning to growth in 2023. 
Long list: Tinder mis-execution , Hyperconnect's failure, ongoing reopening issues in Japan, and a tsunami of FX headwinds.  
New CEO Bernard Kim's mobile gaming monetization background informed many of the strategic pivots: exiting investments in virtual currency and metaverse as not realistic.


United States

Match Group, Inc. is a dating service provider. The Company offers diverse portfolio of apps and services which enables connections across the spectrum of age, race, gender, sexual orientation, and backgrounds. Match Group serves customers worldwide.

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Match Group (MTCH US)

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match

Macro concerns over Match's 2023 earnings guidance are overstated. 30% of revenues tied to a la carte purchases in Tinder can be overcome by better...

Aaron Gabin

Match Group: Major Drivers

Match Group is currently operating in a challenging macro-economic environment and its stock price has been tumbling over the past few...

Baptista Research

Match Group 3Q22: Turnaround Brewing?

Fallen monopolist on the mend. We like CEO Kim's turnaround plan: more female centric features, virtual currency, and reallocating resources to the...

Aaron Gabin

Match Group: The League Acquisition & Other Drivers

Match Group had a weak quarter with a below-par growth in the total revenue that resulted in the company failing to meet Wall Street...

Baptista Research

Match Group: Going Down in Flames?

Match is intriguing but patience required. Ultimately a highly profitable (35% margin) platform with a quasi-monopolist position in a secular...

Aaron Gabin

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