US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher, Ortex

Dimitris Ioannidis

US-EU Index Rebalances / Quantitative Researcher

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

Ortex

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/applovin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32989:1" rel="noopener">AppLovin (APP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apollo-global-management-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28770:1" rel="noopener">Apollo Global Management (APO US)</a> are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/texas-pacific-land-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28693:1" rel="noopener">Texas Pacific Land (TPL US)</a> is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emcor-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20703:1" rel="noopener">Emcor Group (EME US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lennox-international-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16420:1" rel="noopener">Lennox International (LII US)</a> are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. </li>
</ul>



AppLovin (APP US) and Apollo Global Management (APO US) are the main candidates for addition by transition as they are passing the estimated transition threshold and have strong eligibility metrics.  

Texas Pacific Land (TPL US) is the main candidate for addition by migration - despite failing eligibility - due to its significant distance above the minimum S&amp;P500 mcap threshold. 

Emcor Group (EME US) and Lennox International (LII US) are the next candidates for addition by migration with both passing eligibility and adequate distance above the mcap threshold. 


S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20210903-1443045/1443045_sept2021-546-shuf-rebal.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcement</a> from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/match-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25903:1" rel="noopener">Match Group Inc (MTCH US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ceridian-hcm-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27122:1" rel="noopener">Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/brown-brown-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19532:1" rel="noopener">Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US)</a> </li>
</ul>Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... <ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perrigo-co-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:869:1" rel="noopener">Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US)</a> </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unum-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2521:1" rel="noopener">Unum Group (UNM US)</a> </li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-oilwell-varco-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3046:1" rel="noopener">National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)</a></li>
</ul>Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.<div class="content-highlight">
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
</div>While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold.

It's time for the S&amp;P500 Index Rebalance. Friday night on 3 Sep ahead of the long weekend we got the announcement from S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices. This quarter we have 3 Additions...

Match Group Inc (MTCH US) 

Ceridian HCM Holding Inc (CDAY US) 

Brown &amp; Brown (BRO US) 
Combined, the three ADDITIONS had US$6.4bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.6bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have OP of $1.97bn in the next 12 months.and 3 Deletions... 

Perrigo Co Plc (PRGO US) 

Unum Group (UNM US) 
National Oilwell Varco (NOV US)
Combined, the three DELETIONS had US$21.97bn of revenue in the last 12 months, US$1.1bn of OP in that time, and they are forecast to have $2.13bn of OP in the next 12 months.
With 3+x the revenue and a combined OP forecast 8% higher than the ADDITIONS in the next 12 months, these three DELETIONS have a combined market cap of US$16bn as of Friday's close against the combined market cap of the ADDITIONS which are at US$75bn.
That may not make much sense but most major indices are like that - they buy what goes up, after it has gone up, and they sell what underperforms, after it has underperformed. 
While these names are not really a surprise, they may prove interesting.Much more analysis below the fold. 

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance:  3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

Global TMT Analyst, Ex-PM, 30 years experience

Neil Campling

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven</li>
<li>What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction </li>
<li>Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time</li>
</ul>


EV demand slump prompts CATL production cuts, lithium prices fall below breakeven
What happened to Nvidia's MOAT? AMD is gaining inference traction 
Samsung issues at 2nm and 4nm and TSM continues to widen tech leadership. TSM as a Monopsony could hurt TEL and ASML in time


TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Inline performance and inline guidance...the stock mistakingly traded down on Tinder's optically weak sub growth.</li>
<li>Longer term, CEO BK Kim is making the right moves reorganizing the company to focus on the growth engines (Tinder, Hinge), the idiosyncrantic drivers (Asia), and cost cutting (Evergreen Brands).</li>
<li>Reiterated 2023 guidance will prove conservative, with the stock still trading at alltime lows despite the 30% move up so far this year...we buy this dip.</li>
</ul>


Inline performance and inline guidance...the stock mistakingly traded down on Tinder's optically weak sub growth.
Longer term, CEO BK Kim is making the right moves reorganizing the company to focus on the growth engines (Tinder, Hinge), the idiosyncrantic drivers (Asia), and cost cutting (Evergreen Brands).
Reiterated 2023 guidance will prove conservative, with the stock still trading at alltime lows despite the 30% move up so far this year...we buy this dip.


<ul>
<li>Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. </li>
<li>Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.</li>
<li>13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF</li>
</ul>


Match is down 70% in 2022, and down 50% relative to the S&amp;P. 
Despite impressive new CEO and a self help story, shares have continued to underperform rival Bumble and the market by wide margin on macro concerns.
13x Forward EBITDA for a company forecast to grow EBITDA at a 16% CAGR through 2025 (we think closer to 20%), has 35% EBITDA margins and $1B in annual FCF


United States

Match Group, Inc. is a dating service provider. The Company offers diverse portfolio of apps and services which enables connections across the spectrum of age, race, gender, sexual orientation, and backgrounds. Match Group serves customers worldwide.

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Match Group (MTCH US)

S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - the top migration candidate - has been announced as an addition to S&P500 prior to the quarterly review as it is...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

MTCH 4Q22: More Bullish Than You Think

Match delivered a deceptively bullish earnings report...while optically inline and Tinder optically weak...the changes under the surface by new CEO...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match

Macro concerns over Match's 2023 earnings guidance are overstated. 30% of revenues tied to a la carte purchases in Tinder can be overcome by better...

Aaron Gabin

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S&P500 December 2024 Forecasts: APP, APO and TPL Leading the Pack

Texas Pacific Land (TPL) - the top migration candidate - has been announced as an addition to S&P500 prior to the quarterly review as it is...

Dimitris Ioannidis

S&P500 September 2021 Rebalance: 3 OUT, 3 IN - The Deletions May Be More Interesting

The S&P500 Quarterly Review is here. 3 in and 3 out. $14bn a side as of now. I expect the DELETIONS are more interesting though the headlines will...

Travis Lundy

TMT Daily - EVs, CATL, AMD V NVDA, Samsung V TSM Tokyo Electron, ASML, Telco, Shopify, Match, Bumble

​CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....

Neil Campling

MTCH 4Q22: More Bullish Than You Think

Match delivered a deceptively bullish earnings report...while optically inline and Tinder optically weak...the changes under the surface by new CEO...

Aaron Gabin

TMT Left for Dead Long Ideas: Match

Macro concerns over Match's 2023 earnings guidance are overstated. 30% of revenues tied to a la carte purchases in Tinder can be overcome by better...

Aaron Gabin

CATL cuts as lithium falls below cash cost as EVs slump. AMD traction in inference v Nvidia. Samsung woes at both 4nm and 2nm, TSM widens lead....