Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. </li>
<li>Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.</li>
<li>We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)</li>
</ul>


The latest bear market rally came to a close last week after the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) broke below their respective flag supports at 4070 and $304. 
Last week we noted a break of these levels would likely mean a trip back to YTD lows and downtrend channel support, which is precisely where we are now.
We remain bearish as long as the downtrends remain intact on the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), Russell 2000 (IWM), S&amp;P 600 (IJR), and Russell Micro-Caps (IWC)


US Dollar & 10-Year Treasury Yield Breaking Out; Stick With Energy, Also Buying China Education Svcs

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Last week we noted that in order for us to turn bullish on the broad market, we need to see breakouts to YTD highs in small-caps (IWM), Financials (XLF), Energy (XOP), and equal-weighted Discretionary (RCD). We now have the breakout we needed in Energy (RYE, XOP), but the other areas are still consolidating. Therefore, we still see a mixed market and we remain neutral yet constructive overall.Stocks highlighted: XOP, WTI Crude Oil, IWD, IWM, S&amp;P 500, Equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQEW), HLT, SEAS, DRI, PLAY, COP, EOG, PXD, OXY, DVN, CLR, CTRA, FANG, MRO, XEC, APA, AR, MUR, RRC, SWN, MTDR, PDCE, SM, BSM, CPE, VNOM, LPI, DMLP, CHX, WHD, NOA, TTI, NR, EXTN, NGS, FET, and CCLP

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&amp;P 500 is going through a consolidation phase. While we cannot say precisely how deep this pullback will be or if the lows are already in, ongoing positive market dynamics tell us the pullback is likely to be contained and therefore should be viewed as a buying opportunity. With that said, a break below 3789 would signal additional downside ahead. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Energy and Manufacturing (Agricultural Equipment).

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

<div>The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.</div>

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Additionally, the mild deterioration in market dynamics that we discussed the past two weeks is now much less of a concern. Continue to buy dips. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Consumer Discretionary, Energy, and Health Care.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&amp;P 500. Given this bounce, we have become incrementally more bullish. In today’s report we highlight the bullish implications of the recent move higher for the broad market as well as attractive and actionable groups within the Energy Sector: EN-02 Oil &amp; Gas, Global, Large-Cap, EN-08 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic, Large-Cap, and EN-10 Oil and Gas E&amp;P, Domestic Small-Cap.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

United States

Range Resources Corporation is an independent oil and gas company  that explore, develops, and acquires oil and gas properties. The Company conducts operations primarily in the Southwestern, Appalachian and Gulf Coast regions of the United States.

PDC Energy, Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company produces, develops, explores and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. PDC Energy operates in the United States.

Murphy Oil Corporation is a worldwide oil and gas exploration and production company with refining and marketing operations in the United States and the United Kingdom. The Company also has exploration and production activities in countries that include United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Malaysia, and Ecuador. Murphy Oil has retail operations as well in the United States.

Southwestern Energy Company is an independent energy company primarily focused on natural gas and crude oil exploration, development and production (E&P) within the United States.  The Company operations also include natural gas gathering, transmission, and marketing, as well as natural gas distribution.

Civitas Resources, Inc. operates as an oil and natural gas company. The Company focuses on developing and producing crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in Colorado's Denver-Julesburg (DJ) Basin. Civitas Resources serves customers in the United States.

Permian Resources Corporation operates as an oil and gas company. The Company focuses on the development of unconventional oil and associated liquid-rich natural gas reserves in the Permian Basin, as well as offers geology, engineering, and drilling services. Permian Resources serves customers in the United States.

Sunoco LP distributes motor fuel to convenience stores, independent dealers, commercial customers, and distributers. The Company also operates convenience stores and retail fuel sites. Sunoco is located in the United States.

Equitrans Midstream Corporation owns, operates, acquires, and develops midstream assets in the Appalachian Basin. The Company manages natural gas transmission, storage, and gathering systems, as well as high-and low-pressure gathering lines. Equitrans Midstream serves customers in the United States.

EnLink Midstream, LLC is an independent midstream energy services company that offers supply and marketing services to oil and gas producers and consumers. The Company is involved in natural gas gathering, treating, processing, transmission, distribution, supply and marketing, and crude oil marketing. EnLink Midstream owns pipelines and plant facilities in the United States.

Antero Midstream Corporation owns, operates, and develops midstream energy assets. The Company offers gathering and compressions, water distribution, clearwater facility, fractionation, and pipeline safety services. Antero Midstream serves customers in the United States.

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

SK Innovation Co., Ltd. refines, markets, and distributes oil.  The Company produces a variety of petroleum products, such as gasoline, kerosene, liquefied petroleumgas (LPG), and diesel oil.  SK Energy also manufactures petrochemical p roducts, including paraxylene, synthetic resins, styrene monomer, and ethylene.

S-Oil Corporation refines crude oil and sells petroleum and its related products.  The Company mainly focuses on petroleum refining, petrochemical, and lubricant business. S-Oil's major products are gasoline, bunker oil, kerosene, naphtha, lubricants, benzene, toluene, and xylene.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Industry Corporation Limited of Inner Mongolia is mainly involved in the production and selling of coal in China.

Huolinhe Opencut Coal Ind Corp Ltd. (002128 CH)

Washington H. Soul Pattinson & Company Limited is an investment holding company. The Company owns shares and properties, coal mining, bulk handling, commercial television licensee, telecommunications carrier, merchant banking, funds management, pharmaceutical retailing, manufacture, processing and marketing of biscuits and cakes.

Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)

PT Adaro Energy Tbk is a coal mining company. The Company and its subsidiaries currently deal in coal mining and trade, coal infrastructure and logistics, and mining contractor services.

Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power Co., Ltd. mines and processes coal. The Company also generates electric power.

Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co., Ltd. mines, processes, and markets low sulfur high quality coal. The company also researches and develops coal and environment protection related technologies.

Shanxi Lu'An Environmental Energy Dev.Co (601699 CH)

Kunlun Energy Company Ltd, through its subsidiaries, explores and produces crude oil and natural gas in China.

China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. mainly engages in the Ocean Shipping of Crude Oil and other energy sources such as Coal and Iron Ore. Through its subsidiary CLNG, the Company also provides the Ocean Shipping service of Liquefied Natural Gas.

Matador Resources Company  is an independent energy company engaged in the exploration, development, production and acquisition of oil and natural gas resources.   The Company's operations are primarily in the Eagle Ford Shale in south Texas and the Haynesville Shale and Cotton Valley in northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

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Matador Resources Co (MTDR US)

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Vermilion Research

Upgrading Energy To Overweight; WTI Crude Oil and XOP With Major Long-Term Breakouts

Recent developments lead us to believe that Energy is likely to outperform moving forward: WTI crude oil is breaking above $77, and the RYE and XOP...

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Upgrading Financials, Downgrading Technology & Consumer Discretionary

The recent rate surge has upset the picture for growth stocks and, consequently, the S&P 500 is going through a consolidation phase.

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Bullish Outlook Intact

The action we are seeing in broad indexes, Sectors, and in market dynamics continues to support our overall bullish outlook. Continue to buy dips.

Vermilion Research

U.S. Equity Strategy: Opportunities in Energy Stocks

The recent successful test of support at the 200-day moving average has paved the way for a meaningful bounce higher on the S&P 500. Given this...

Vermilion Research

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