Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.</li>
<li>LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).</li>
<li>Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.</li>
</ul>


Copper earnings leverage: Equity-method stakes in Collahuasi and Anglo Sur mean every +10% copper move adds ~¥25–30 bn net income (~3% EPS), giving Mitsui underappreciated upside torque.
LNG stability &amp; cash flows: Long-term contracts in Mozambique, Cameron, Qatar, and Sakhalin underpin resilient earnings and support ¥400 bn annual buybacks (~5% equity).
Valuation: P/B discount vs Itochu has closed (~1.1× each), but Berkshire’s ≥10% stake enforces capital discipline; TSR outlook is 6–9% CAGR through FY28, with copper strength providing double-digit upside.


Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.</li>
<li>Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).</li>
<li>Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.</li>
</ul>


Cycle Leaders: Gold, silver, copper, and aluminium outperform on safe-haven demand, supply tightness, and firm regional premiums, while ferrous, nickel, and coal lag on China weakness.
Equity Positioning: Focus on Zijin, Shandong, Chifeng, BRMS (gold); Hindustan Zinc, Vedanta, Dowa, Korea Zinc (silver/zinc); Sumitomo, JX Advanced, Mitsubishi Materials, Hongqiao, Vedanta (copper/aluminium).
Corporate Actions: Zijin Gold IPO, Anglo–Teck merger, and BHP’s copper sale highlight accelerating sector consolidation, driving investor rotation toward gold and copper scale.


Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

<ul>
<li>Sojitz is a mid-tier sōgō shōsha with, shifting its earnings base from coal and resources toward Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare.</li>
<li>FY25 profit is guided flat at ¥115bn, with Metals weakness offset by non-resource growth; by FY27, ~80% of profits are expected from non-resource segments.</li>
<li>Shares trade at 7.8x P/E (30–40% discount to peers) with a 4.2% yield, but cash flow volatility, coal exposure, and smaller scale remain key overhangs.</li>
</ul>


Sojitz is a mid-tier sōgō shōsha with, shifting its earnings base from coal and resources toward Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare.
FY25 profit is guided flat at ¥115bn, with Metals weakness offset by non-resource growth; by FY27, ~80% of profits are expected from non-resource segments.
Shares trade at 7.8x P/E (30–40% discount to peers) with a 4.2% yield, but cash flow volatility, coal exposure, and smaller scale remain key overhangs.


Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.</li>
<li>Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.</li>
<li>Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.</li>
</ul>


Copper Bull Case: Electrification and constrained supply support a bullish $10k/t copper outlook, positioning Japan Inc. as a strategic beneficiary of the energy transition.
Japan Inc. Exposure: ~0.95 Mt attributable output (~63–66% demand) drives ~$6bn EBITDA; SMM and JX Advanced Metals are most leveraged, trading houses offer diversified exposure.
Growth Optionality: Nittetsu’s Chile projects add near-term growth (2026–28), while Quechua provides long-dated optionality into the 2030s, enhancing Japan’s copper security.


Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> subsidiary, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vicom-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19020:1" rel="noopener">Vicom Ltd (VCM SP)</a> is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.</li>
<li>It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  </li>
</ul>


Public transport and taxi segments in Singapore provide much-needed stability for the group, not much downside surprise is expected. Now 54% of its revenue is generated overseas. 

Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) subsidiary, Vicom Ltd (VCM SP) is in charge of the OBU upgrade in Singapore, providing some high-margin incremental operating profit.
It trades at 14x PE, and its share price is almost at historical low, creating another reason to build positions on this.  


Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Japan

Marubeni Corporation is a trading company with business divisions in iron & steel, information technology, utility & infrastructure, energy, food, metals & mineral resources, development & construction, and chemicals.  The Company markets its products globally through a network of sales offices and representative firms.

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Marubeni Corp (8002 JP)

Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

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Mitsui & Co. (8031.T): Copper-LNG Torque Driving a Rerating

​Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Rahul Jain

Asia Commodities — September 2025: Gold Strength, Copper Tightness, Aluminium Premiums

​Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Rahul Jain

Sojitz – Non-Resource Pivot in Motion, Valuation Discount Persists

​Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Rahul Jain

Japan Inc. And the Copper Supercycle: Who Benefits Most?

​Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Rahul Jain

Comfortdelgro (CD): Growth Evident and Cheap

​Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...

Henry Soediarko

Mitsui's copper earnings leverage and LNG stability drive underappreciated upside potential, supported by resilient cash flows and strong...

Safe-haven demand and supply tightness drive gold, silver, copper, and aluminium performance, while China weakness impacts ferrous, nickel, and coal.

Sojitz diversifies earnings away from coal and resources towards Chemicals, Energy Solutions, and Healthcare,. Trading at a discount to peers with...

Japan Inc. poised to benefit from bullish copper outlook due to electrification and constrained supply, with key players like SMM and JX Advanced...

Comfortdelgro 54% revenue from overseas. Vicom Ltd's OBU upgrade offers high-margin profit, trading at 14x PE near historical low. Opportunity to...