Fundamental Analyses, Contrarian Cashflows

Contrarian Cashflows

Fundamental Analyses

The purpose of Contrarian Cashflows is to document my investment research and share it with everyone who is interested in value investing. My long term aspiration for Contrarian Cashflows is to become a platform for professional investors and serious amateurs where they can get inspiration and discuss investing-related topics.
I plan to publish one company deep dive per month that is guided by my investment approach. All information I use for my write-ups is publicly available and most of the time directly sourced from public filings issued by the respective companies. To guarantee maximum transparency, for every post I provide a list of all used sources in the resources section.
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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>I recently had a conversation with a close friend and fellow investor, during which he shared his current research interest in the dollar store concept.</li>
<li>He emphasized that this business model aligns with criteria conducive to long-term shareholder returns.</li>
<li>Given the scarce presence of dollar stores in Germany, primarily due to socioeconomic factors, I sought clarification on the underlying concept from him.</li>
</ul>


I recently had a conversation with a close friend and fellow investor, during which he shared his current research interest in the dollar store concept.
He emphasized that this business model aligns with criteria conducive to long-term shareholder returns.
Given the scarce presence of dollar stores in Germany, primarily due to socioeconomic factors, I sought clarification on the underlying concept from him.


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.</li>
<li>Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields </li>
<li>Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI</li>
</ul>


We've expected to see 4300-4325 act as major support on SPX, while also expecting consolidation between 4300-4325 support and 4600 resistance until the end of September, and possibly longer.
Still possible this 4300-4325 support holds, but odds of a deeper pullback to SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar (DXY) and Treasury yields 
Also adding to concerns: 1+ year uptrend violations on $IWO/$IWP, and breakdowns below 34,280 on the Dow, $180 on IWM, $472 on SOXX, $81 on ITB, and $104-$105 on XLI


U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Financial Select Sector SPDR F / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.</li>
<li>We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).</li>
<li>Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.</li>
</ul>


Fitch's U.S. credit downgrade has done little to change the intermediate-term trend; we continue to believe the path of least resistance is higher for the major equity indexes.
We remain bullish on the S&amp;P 500, and we expect to see support at its 50-day MA moving forward (currently 4415).
Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the S&amp;P 500, $371.50 on the $QQQ, and $190-193 on the $IWM.


Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds, Fund Newsletters

Fund Newsletters

Selected Quarterly & Annual Newsletters from Funds

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process is continuously evolving.</li><li>Despite the market downturn our cumulative redemptions are a mere basis points of the fund.</li><li>We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak; and then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.</li><li>With a more concentrated portfolio of businesses, portfolio volatility can be higher, but volatility can be compensated with higher returns.</li><li>We have no conviction about the direction of the market - we don’t believe one can consistently predict this with high accuracy.</li></ul>

SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process is continuously evolving.Despite the market downturn our cumulative redemptions are a mere basis points of the fund.We are more concerned with the ‘two birds in the bush’ so to speak; and then extending the adage further: what is the price implying to catch these plump birds.With a more concentrated portfolio of businesses, portfolio volatility can be higher, but volatility can be compensated with higher returns.We have no conviction about the direction of the market - we don’t believe one can consistently predict this with high accuracy.

SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter

<ul><li>We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will determine the portfolio’s return (and its risk).</li><li>Most of our work is devoted to seeking out individual investment opportunities and analyzing them rather than to macroeconomic forecasting.</li><li>As we expected, the need for capital investment over the long term has been, and will likely remain, higher than we anticipated.</li></ul>

We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will determine the portfolio’s return (and its risk).Most of our work is devoted to seeking out individual investment opportunities and analyzing them rather than to macroeconomic forecasting.As we expected, the need for capital investment over the long term has been, and will likely remain, higher than we anticipated.

Vltava Fund Q3 2022 Letter To Shareholders

United States

Markel Corporation markets and underwrites specialty insurance products and programs to a variety of niche markets.  The Company also underwrites a diverse property, casualty, marine, and aviation insurance and reinsurance business on a worldwide basis.

Price Gauge
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Markel Corp (MKL US)

Portfolio Update: March 2024

I recently had a conversation with a close friend and fellow investor, during which he shared his current research interest in the dollar store...

Contrarian Cashflows

U.S. Dollar (DXY) And Treasury Yields Breaking Out; Growing Number of Index/Sector Breakdowns

Odds of a deeper pullback to $SPX 4165-4200/the 200-day MA have increased following major breakouts in the U.S. dollar $DXY and Treasury yields...

Vermilion Research

Upgrading Financials to Market Weight; Shift to Value Continues. Buys in Energy, Financials, Mfg.

Upgrading Financials $XLF to Market Weight; The Shift to Value Continues. Short term supports we are watching include 4460-4475 on the $SPX,...

Vermilion Research

SaltLight Capital Management Q3 2022 Co-Investor Letter

SaltLight Capital Management started in 2015 and has grown tremendously, with assets under management doubling each year. Our investment process...

Fund Newsletters

Vltava Fund Q3 2022 Letter To Shareholders

We may have different expectations concerning inflation, interest rates, or economic growth, but, at the end of the day, what we buy will...

Fund Newsletters

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)