FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

Macroeconomics

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

 In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the source or extent of the problem and, therefore, what might restore confidence.  There is a wide degree of global market uncertainty at this time that in itself is holding markets back.  It may take some time for confidence to be restored, and indeed confidence may remain relatively low for the foreseeable future.  Most recently the oil market appears to be at the epicenter of the upheaval.  Uncertainty and volatility in the oil market is unprecedented in recent memory and the contagion to global markets has reached globally systemic levels.  Until greater clarity is restored to the oil market, the risk is high of still more severe global market upheaval and more extreme central bank policy responses.

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

Leading Independent Investment Research, Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar

Leading Independent Investment Research

Morningstar, Inc.

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. We offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors. 

Morningstar provides data on more than 500,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 16 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries, with more than $180 billion in assets under advisement or management as of June 30, 2015. We have operations in 27 countries.

Download the Morningstar Fact Sheet : http://corporate.morningstar.com/US/documents/MarketingFactSheets/AboutMorningstarFactsheet.pdf

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's outlook for midterm oil industry fundamentals, we are amending our methodology for forecasting near-term oil and gas prices.Based on our current expectation that oil supply and demand will come into balance in mid-2017, we are launching updated Brent forecasts of $50-$55 for the second half of 2017 and $55-$60 for 2018 (approximately 20% higher than current strip prices on average). We will update our oil and gas producer valuations with this new pricing by the end of the current earnings period.Analyst: Lorraine Tan, CFA

Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's outlook for midterm oil industry fundamentals, we are amending our methodology for forecasting near-term oil and gas prices.Based on our current expectation that oil supply and demand will come into balance in mid-2017, we are launching updated Brent forecasts of $50-$55 for the second half of 2017 and $55-$60 for 2018 (approximately 20% higher than current strip prices on average). We will update our oil and gas producer valuations with this new pricing by the end of the current earnings period.Analyst: Lorraine Tan, CFA 

Oil and Gas Price Outlook: Updating Our Near-Term Methodology for Forecasting Prices

CEO, CIO, ClearMacro

Mike Simcock

CEO, CIO

Strategic & Tactical Asset Allocation Global Macro

ClearMacro

CIO, & CEO ClearMacro Ltd
An institutional investor with over 25 years experience, laterly having spent 10 years at GIC Singapore SWF. Managng Director, managing Global Macro, FIxed Income (Europe) and Global Credit businesses.
Passionate about utilising technology to enhance portfolio idea generation across global, multi-asset classes and optimisation of the investment process.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is there any value to be found in an area of the fixed income markets? We show that some of the best current risk-adjusted asset allocation opportunities in any global public markets are in fixed income markets and sectors.  

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician "Alex" suggests not. The oil market remains firmly streteched because of the supply-demand imbalance right now offering no suggestion of a sustainable rebound. Hold-off entering tactical longs in risky assets for now.       

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping its policy options open and likely to delay policy tightening on recent ebbing trends in US growth and global market uncertainty are likely to combine to  support global equity markets and risk appetite.  We anticipate a lengthy consolidation in equities after a tough start to the year, and some recovery in commodity currencies, mostly against the EUR.  Weak Chinese economic growth and more volatile Chinese equities, indicative of domestic financial stress, pose the biggest threat to this more benign near term outlook.  However, a good deal of the negative outlook for Chinese commodity demand may be baked in the cake.

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

United States

Marathon Oil Corporation is an independent international energy company engaged in exploration and production, oil sands mining and integrated gas. The Company's operations are focused in North America, Africa and Europe.

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Marathon Oil (MRO US)

AmpGFX - Oil Leaves a Slippery Slick for Global Markets

In stepping back for a moment to assess what exactly is hurting global investor confidence, it is not as easy as it seems to put a finger on the...

Greg Gibbs

Oil and Gas Price Outlook: Updating Our Near-Term Methodology for Forecasting Prices

Given the large discrepancy that has emerged between 2017-18 Brent futures prices (currently $40-$47 per barrel) and the Morningstar energy team's...

Morningstar, Inc.

Does Fixed Income Have a Future?

With bond yields at floor levels with limited policy options to sustain zero or negative interest rates what is the future for fixed income? Is...

ClearMacro

'Should You Trust the Bounce? '

After the recent global sell off across risk assets, we ask 'is there value from a tactical allocation perspective? ClearMacro's virtual tactician...

ClearMacro

AmpGFX - More Stable Oil and EUR to Underperform Commodity Currencies

More stability in oil prices, anticipated policy easing by the ECB, intensified efforts in China to control its currency, and a Fed that is keeping...

Greg Gibbs

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