External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Topline Securities

Topline Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Topline Securities is one of the fastest growing brokerage houses in Pakistan. It has strong equity brokerage, economic / equity research, mutual fund distribution, commodity trading and corporate finance & advisory functions. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>MSCI released an update on its November 2023 Index Review, notifying that there is no change in constituents for Pakistan in the MSCI main Frontier Market Index. However, in the small-cap index, four constituents have been removed, and four new constituents have been added.</li><li>The changes to MSCI Frontier Market index will be effective from Nov 30, 2023.</li><li>The main Frontier Market Index comprises of 17 constituents, including OGDC, PPL, MARI, UBL, LUCK, MCB, ENGRO, HBL, HUBC, FFC, SYS, EFERT, POL, MTL, PSO, BAFL, and TRG.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

MSCI released an update on its November 2023 Index Review, notifying that there is no change in constituents for Pakistan in the MSCI main Frontier Market Index. However, in the small-cap index, four constituents have been removed, and four new constituents have been added.The changes to MSCI Frontier Market index will be effective from Nov 30, 2023.The main Frontier Market Index comprises of 17 constituents, including OGDC, PPL, MARI, UBL, LUCK, MCB, ENGRO, HBL, HUBC, FFC, SYS, EFERT, POL, MTL, PSO, BAFL, and TRG.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Strategy: MSCI November 2023 Index Review

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Pakistan’s listed cement sector has reported highest ever earnings of Rs21.3bn up 46% YoY in 1QFY24. The positive earnings growth is primarily due to higher volumetric sales and improved gross margins.</li><li>The cement sector also witnessed a significant increase in pre-tax earnings (PBT), rising by 60% YoY and 51% QoQ to Rs32.8bn. This significant growth is due to factors mentioned above and QoQ decline in tax expense.</li><li>Sales jumped 34% YoY to Rs170bn in 1QFY24 led by 23.6% YoY increase in total cement dispatches and 12% YoY in average cement prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan’s listed cement sector has reported highest ever earnings of Rs21.3bn up 46% YoY in 1QFY24. The positive earnings growth is primarily due to higher volumetric sales and improved gross margins.The cement sector also witnessed a significant increase in pre-tax earnings (PBT), rising by 60% YoY and 51% QoQ to Rs32.8bn. This significant growth is due to factors mentioned above and QoQ decline in tax expense.Sales jumped 34% YoY to Rs170bn in 1QFY24 led by 23.6% YoY increase in total cement dispatches and 12% YoY in average cement prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Cements: Sector reported highest ever quarterly profit in 1QFY24

<ul><li>Pakistan total cement sales in Oct-23 are expected to decline by 7-11% YoY and 4-8% MoM.</li><li>Local dispatches are likely to decline by 19-23% YoY and 11-15% MoM. Decline in sales could be attributed to unavailability labor due to start of Rabi season, high construction cost and slowdown in construction activities.</li><li>Considering these figures, the average daily domestic sales for the sector are expected to reach 99.6k tons/day in Oct-23, compared to the five-year average Oct sales of 138.7k tons/day.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan total cement sales in Oct-23 are expected to decline by 7-11% YoY and 4-8% MoM.Local dispatches are likely to decline by 19-23% YoY and 11-15% MoM. Decline in sales could be attributed to unavailability labor due to start of Rabi season, high construction cost and slowdown in construction activities.Considering these figures, the average daily domestic sales for the sector are expected to reach 99.6k tons/day in Oct-23, compared to the five-year average Oct sales of 138.7k tons/day.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Cements: Local Cement Dispatches to Decline by 19-23% YoY in Oct-2023

Equity Bottom-Up

Maple Leaf Cement Factory / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its financial result today, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1,626mn (EPS: Rs1.52) up 18% YoY in 1QFY24.</li><li>Earnings came slightly lower than expectation due to lower than expected gross margins.</li><li>We expected gross margins of 32% for 1QFY24; however, actual gross margins came in slightly below expectations at 31%. However, gross margins came in significantly higher than 4QFY23 of 25%, mainly due to lower coal prices.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its financial result today, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1,626mn (EPS: Rs1.52) up 18% YoY in 1QFY24.Earnings came slightly lower than expectation due to lower than expected gross margins.We expected gross margins of 32% for 1QFY24; however, actual gross margins came in slightly below expectations at 31%. However, gross margins came in significantly higher than 4QFY23 of 25%, mainly due to lower coal prices.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 1QFY24 EPS at Rs1.52, up 18% YoY; Buy stance maintained

<ul><li>Topline Cement Universe is expected to post core profitability growth of 40% YoY to Rs13.6bn in 1QFY24 due to increase in cement dispatches, and improvement in gross margins.</li><li>Net sales are anticipated to grow by 28% YoY to Rs89bn in 1QFY24 primarily due to 18% YoY growth in local cement sales along with 12% YoY increase in average cement prices.</li><li>Surge in cement dispatches can be attributed to (1) low base effect of last year amid floods, (2) economic stability, (3) improved farmer’s income, and (4) 72% YoY surge in exports due to significant currency devaluation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Topline Cement Universe is expected to post core profitability growth of 40% YoY to Rs13.6bn in 1QFY24 due to increase in cement dispatches, and improvement in gross margins.Net sales are anticipated to grow by 28% YoY to Rs89bn in 1QFY24 primarily due to 18% YoY growth in local cement sales along with 12% YoY increase in average cement prices.Surge in cement dispatches can be attributed to (1) low base effect of last year amid floods, (2) economic stability, (3) improved farmer’s income, and (4) 72% YoY surge in exports due to significant currency devaluation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Pakistan Cement: Profitability to Increase by 40% YoY in 1QFY24

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Maple Leaf Cement Factory (MLCF PA)

Topline Flash Note: Pakistan Strategy: MSCI November 2023 Index Review

MSCI released an update on its November 2023 Index Review, notifying that there is no change in constituents for Pakistan in the MSCI main...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cements: Sector reported highest ever quarterly profit in 1QFY24

Pakistan’s listed cement sector has reported highest ever earnings of Rs21.3bn up 46% YoY in 1QFY24. The positive earnings growth is primarily due...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cements: Local Cement Dispatches to Decline by 19-23% YoY in Oct-2023

Pakistan total cement sales in Oct-23 are expected to decline by 7-11% YoY and 4-8% MoM. Local dispatches are likely to decline by 19-23% YoY and...

Topline Securities

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF): 1QFY24 EPS at Rs1.52, up 18% YoY; Buy stance maintained

Maple Leaf Cement (MLCF) announced its financial result today, wherein the company reported consolidated earnings of Rs1,626mn (EPS: Rs1.52) up...

Topline Securities

Pakistan Cement: Profitability to Increase by 40% YoY in 1QFY24

Topline Cement Universe is expected to post core profitability growth of 40% YoY to Rs13.6bn in 1QFY24 due to increase in cement dispatches, and...

Topline Securities

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