HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Various figures for the Chinese New Year holidays suggested that the domestic tourism market is lukewarm in 2022. However, there are evidences that high-end consumption is better than low-end.</li>
<li>Weak cross-province tourism and low-end spending are likely negative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/maoyan-entertainment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27451:1" rel="noopener">Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/imax-china-holding-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:888:1" rel="noopener">IMAX China Holding (1970 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>Good duty-free sales and high-end spending are beneficial to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12278:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chow-tai-fook-jewellery-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:549:1" rel="noopener">Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Various figures for the Chinese New Year holidays suggested that the domestic tourism market is lukewarm in 2022. However, there are evidences that high-end consumption is better than low-end.
Weak cross-province tourism and low-end spending are likely negative to China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK), Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) and IMAX China Holding (1970 HK).  
Good duty-free sales and high-end spending are beneficial to CTG Duty Free Corp (601888 CH), Fosun Tourism (1992 HK), Fosun International (656 HK) and Chow Tai Fook Jewellery (1929 HK). 


2022 Chinese New Year Holidays - Some Winners and Losers

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waterdrop-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33018:1" rel="noopener">Waterdrop Inc (WDH US)</a> is the largest independent third-party insurance platform in China as measured by life and health insurance first-year premiums (FYP) distributed in 2020, according to iResearch. Waterdrop is backed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swiss-re-ag-1f83dcbc-730e-46fa-82f2-bfe7e8e361a1" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27914:1" rel="noopener">Swiss Re AG (SREN SW)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meituan-dianping" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26970:1" rel="noopener">Meituan (3690 HK)</a>.</p></div><div><p>At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $10.00-12.00 per ADS, Waterdrop will have a market cap of $4.3 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $301.6 million. New and existing shareholders have indicated on $210 million of the IPO, including Boyu Capital ($100 million), HOPU Investments (at least $80 million), and Kevin Sunny Holding ($30 million). The indications of interest represent 63.6% of the ADSs on offer at the mid-point of the IPO price range.</p></div><div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/waterdrop-ipo-initiation-going-for-brokers" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50610" rel="noopener">Waterdrop IPO Initiation: Going for Brokers</a>, we opined that as a leading online third-party insurance broker, Waterdrop is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. The key unknown is whether the changing regulations will throw a spanner in the works. Notwithstanding the regulatory overhang, we concluded that Waterdrop is worth a look. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full at the high-end but has some upside at the low-end. </p></div></div></div>

Waterdrop Inc (WDH US) is the largest independent third-party insurance platform in China as measured by life and health insurance first-year premiums (FYP) distributed in 2020, according to iResearch. Waterdrop is backed by Tencent Holdings (700 HK), Swiss Re AG (SREN SW) and Meituan (3690 HK).At the mid-point of the proposed IPO price range of $10.00-12.00 per ADS, Waterdrop will have a market cap of $4.3 billion. At the mid-point of the IPO price range, the net proceeds are $301.6 million. New and existing shareholders have indicated on $210 million of the IPO, including Boyu Capital ($100 million), HOPU Investments (at least $80 million), and Kevin Sunny Holding ($30 million). The indications of interest represent 63.6% of the ADSs on offer at the mid-point of the IPO price range.In Waterdrop IPO Initiation: Going for Brokers, we opined that as a leading online third-party insurance broker, Waterdrop is well-positioned to benefit from favourable industry trends. The key unknown is whether the changing regulations will throw a spanner in the works. Notwithstanding the regulatory overhang, we concluded that Waterdrop is worth a look. Our analysis suggests that the IPO price range is full at the high-end but has some upside at the low-end. 

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="">
<li>Tourist number in National Day holidays recovered to 80% of last year.</li>
<li>Food delivery orders increased significantly in scenic spots during National Day holidays.</li>
<li>Pinduoduo (PDD) is not in the list of e-commerce law drafters.</li>
<li>Chinese game developers earned 29% of global game revenue on App Store and Google Player.</li>
<li>iQiyi (IQ) denied a short-seller accusation.</li>
</ul>


Tourist number in National Day holidays recovered to 80% of last year.
Food delivery orders increased significantly in scenic spots during National Day holidays.
Pinduoduo (PDD) is not in the list of e-commerce law drafters.
Chinese game developers earned 29% of global game revenue on App Store and Google Player.
iQiyi (IQ) denied a short-seller accusation.


China Internet Weekly (12Oct2020): Tourist Number Recovered to 80% of Last National Day Holidays

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a> ticketing service revenues' growth will be capped due to the COVID-19 safety precaution for longer than this year given there is not yet a vaccine let alone curing the world out of COVID-19.</p>
<p>Thanks to its standing as part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group (9988 HK)</a> , the management has decided to co-invest in Reality Shows productions alongside Youku that will shift its distribution channel from cinemas to home (Television) and personal (smartphone and tablet) entertainment. </p>
<p>Alibaba Pictures is trading at 1.27x PBR, a 90% discount to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iqiyi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26755:1" rel="noopener">iQIYI Inc (IQ US)</a> , even before it books future revenues from the Reality Shows. <strong>Buy</strong>. </p>

Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) ticketing service revenues' growth will be capped due to the COVID-19 safety precaution for longer than this year given there is not yet a vaccine let alone curing the world out of COVID-19.
Thanks to its standing as part of the Alibaba Group (9988 HK) , the management has decided to co-invest in Reality Shows productions alongside Youku that will shift its distribution channel from cinemas to home (Television) and personal (smartphone and tablet) entertainment. 
Alibaba Pictures is trading at 1.27x PBR, a 90% discount to iQIYI Inc (IQ US) , even before it books future revenues from the Reality Shows. Buy. 

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Big Screen to Small Screen

<p>Due to the reopening of the economy, the market hurried to think that viewers will flock back to the cinemas, creating a revenue growth potential for the company and the share price rebounded after the relief from the reopening post-COVID-19 in China. </p>
<p>The reality is that <strong>people are not in a rush to go out to watch a movie in a cinema</strong> citing COVID-19 contraction risk, and the availability of online entertainment as a substitute. With not many people are rushing to the cinema to watch a movie, the volume will inevitably lower especially in the first quarter was basically almost zero due to the COVID-19 induced lockdown. </p>
<p>If investors are betting on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-pictures-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20724:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)</a>  due to their revenue growth rate and therefore are willing to pay such an expensive level, they should think twice as the growth rate has plateaued and last year was a negative growth for the company. </p>
<p>It is also worth mentioning that the company is trading at <strong>3x</strong> higher than its peers including Maoyan Entertainment, a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tencent-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26:1" rel="noopener">Tencent Holdings (700 HK)</a> backed company, that has broken even and generated some profits. It is trading at 30x PER.</p>
<p>Alibaba Pictures, unless it starts to break-even anytime soon or a vaccine is found and made available in China, is a <strong>SELL</strong> especially when its peers, a Tencent-backed company, have generated some profits.  </p>

Due to the reopening of the economy, the market hurried to think that viewers will flock back to the cinemas, creating a revenue growth potential for the company and the share price rebounded after the relief from the reopening post-COVID-19 in China. 
The reality is that people are not in a rush to go out to watch a movie in a cinema citing COVID-19 contraction risk, and the availability of online entertainment as a substitute. With not many people are rushing to the cinema to watch a movie, the volume will inevitably lower especially in the first quarter was basically almost zero due to the COVID-19 induced lockdown. 
If investors are betting on Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK)  due to their revenue growth rate and therefore are willing to pay such an expensive level, they should think twice as the growth rate has plateaued and last year was a negative growth for the company. 
It is also worth mentioning that the company is trading at 3x higher than its peers including Maoyan Entertainment, a Tencent Holdings (700 HK) backed company, that has broken even and generated some profits. It is trading at 30x PER.
Alibaba Pictures, unless it starts to break-even anytime soon or a vaccine is found and made available in China, is a SELL especially when its peers, a Tencent-backed company, have generated some profits.  

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Rushing to Cinema?

China

Maoyan Entertainment operates as a leading platform providing innovative internet empowered entertainment services. The Company offers online entertainment ticketing services, entertainment content services, electronic commerce services, advertising services, and other services. Maoyan Entertainment operates its businesses in China.

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Maoyan Entertainment (1896 HK)

2022 Chinese New Year Holidays - Some Winners and Losers

2022 Chinese New Year figures showed marginal decline domestic tourists, and pointed to better high-end consumption performance than low-end. We...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Waterdrop IPO: Valuation Insights

Waterdrop has launched its IPO to raise net proceeds of $301.6 million at the mid-point of the price range of $10-12. The price range is full at...

Arun George

China Internet Weekly (12Oct2020): Tourist Number Recovered to 80% of Last National Day Holidays

China's National Day tourists reflect how much the economy recovered. The holidays were from October 1 to 8. We believe people were willing to...

Ming Lu

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Big Screen to Small Screen

Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK) ticketing

Henry Soediarko

Alibaba Pictures (1060): Rushing to Cinema?

Due to the reopening of the economy, the market hurried to think that viewers will flock back to the cinemas, creating a revenue growth potential...

Henry Soediarko

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