Independent Asian Credit Research, Bondcritic

Warut Promboon

Independent Asian Credit Research

Asian Fixed Income/Frontier Market Research

Bondcritic

Bondcritic, established in 2009, is designed to be an independent credit research voice that helps investors gain insights and unbiased analyses on Asian fixed income market. Our mission is to discover deep-value Asian high-yield and distressed bonds with a bottom-up approach, together with the help of our proprietary ESG (Environmental, Social Development, and Governance) model. At the same time, we focus on bringing investment cases of unrated and unloved issuers to the general public.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

This is the first in a series of reports on Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities (IABS) in Asia Pacific. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the IABS asset class, which remains relatively new to Asia. An IABS transaction involves a sponsor and/or manager sourcing project and infrastructure loans from originators (i.e. banks), underwriting them and issuing securitized notes backed by these assets to investors. This helps originators recycle their balance sheets, while offering investors exposure to these projects and infrastructure loans in a credit-enhanced format, enabling them to originate more project and infrastructure loans.  For the Asia Pacific region, IABS can help bridge a funding gap for infrastructure financing, which according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2017, amounts to USD 467bn per annum.
IABS is typically backed by a diversified portfolio of project and infrastructure loans. Long-term investors such as life insurers and pension funds can benefit from matching their long-dated liabilities with longer-dated IABS. An investment-grade credit rating for IABS would also fit into the investment mandates of life insurers, pension funds and asset managers. In addition, investors benefit from instant diversification across projects, sectors and geographies/regions, compared to investing directly in individual loans or projects. Furthermore, the elevated credit profile of a senior tranche minimizes the capital cushion that an institutional investor may need to put up against its investments. Last but not least, IABS offers institutional investors access to an asset class with significant barriers to entry, managed by an experienced collateral manager.
As with any credit product, IABS is not risk-free and, depending on how each IABS is structured, IABS could be exposed to loans without public ratings, concentration risk (in certain sectors, countries, guarantors, offtakers and projects), political risk, operational risk of a collateral manager, counterparty risk from loan participation exposures, and prolonged recovery periods in case of loan defaults. It should be noted that such risks are generally taken into consideration in the ratings process of IABS, either through the credit estimate (i.e. private ratings) assigned to the underlying loans or the stress testing of the loan portfolio and IABS structure.

This is the first in a series of reports on Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities (IABS) in Asia Pacific. The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the IABS asset class, which remains relatively new to Asia. An IABS transaction involves a sponsor and/or manager sourcing project and infrastructure loans from originators (i.e. banks), underwriting them and issuing securitized notes backed by these assets to investors. This helps originators recycle their balance sheets, while offering investors exposure to these projects and infrastructure loans in a credit-enhanced format, enabling them to originate more project and infrastructure loans.  For the Asia Pacific region, IABS can help bridge a funding gap for infrastructure financing, which according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB) in 2017, amounts to USD 467bn per annum.
IABS is typically backed by a diversified portfolio of project and infrastructure loans. Long-term investors such as life insurers and pension funds can benefit from matching their long-dated liabilities with longer-dated IABS. An investment-grade credit rating for IABS would also fit into the investment mandates of life insurers, pension funds and asset managers. In addition, investors benefit from instant diversification across projects, sectors and geographies/regions, compared to investing directly in individual loans or projects. Furthermore, the elevated credit profile of a senior tranche minimizes the capital cushion that an institutional investor may need to put up against its investments. Last but not least, IABS offers institutional investors access to an asset class with significant barriers to entry, managed by an experienced collateral manager.
As with any credit product, IABS is not risk-free and, depending on how each IABS is structured, IABS could be exposed to loans without public ratings, concentration risk (in certain sectors, countries, guarantors, offtakers and projects), political risk, operational risk of a collateral manager, counterparty risk from loan participation exposures, and prolonged recovery periods in case of loan defaults. It should be noted that such risks are generally taken into consideration in the ratings process of IABS, either through the credit estimate (i.e. private ratings) assigned to the underlying loans or the stress testing of the loan portfolio and IABS structure.

Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities: New Asset Class for Asia

Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

*Challenges Ignored: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An Insurance]. In typical fashion, the management of Ping An barely scratched the surface in their discussion of its weakened franchise;   *Only A Discussion On Life and P&amp;C: Management guided that Ping An Life (PAL) will have positive Value of New Business (VONB) growth for 2021, as a beneficiary of health reforms. It sees a number of new digital tools empowering agents in sales and customer development, in addition to improving agency recruitment. For Ping An P&amp;C, management guided that the full-year combined ratio would be “slightly higher” than the 99.1% posted through 3Q20. This means that Ping An P&amp;C likely will be loss making on an operational basis if the combined ratio exceeds 100%; and* Move Along, Nothing To See Here: There was no discussion of the following: 1) Continued weakness in Ping An Life’s results; 2) It being  a finalist to acqure Tahoe Insurance in Hong Kong; 3) technology platform; credit insurance risk; and the capital contrained Ping An Bank.

*Challenges Ignored: Last week a competitor held a virtual conference with Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An Insurance]. In typical fashion, the management of Ping An barely scratched the surface in their discussion of its weakened franchise;   *Only A Discussion On Life and P&amp;C: Management guided that Ping An Life (PAL) will have positive Value of New Business (VONB) growth for 2021, as a beneficiary of health reforms. It sees a number of new digital tools empowering agents in sales and customer development, in addition to improving agency recruitment. For Ping An P&amp;C, management guided that the full-year combined ratio would be “slightly higher” than the 99.1% posted through 3Q20. This means that Ping An P&amp;C likely will be loss making on an operational basis if the combined ratio exceeds 100%; and* Move Along, Nothing To See Here: There was no discussion of the following: 1) Continued weakness in Ping An Life’s results; 2) It being  a finalist to acqure Tahoe Insurance in Hong Kong; 3) technology platform; credit insurance risk; and the capital contrained Ping An Bank. 

Ping An Insurance – Avoiding The Hard Questions

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

Positive COVID vaccine news has since led to bullish inflections in a staggering number of countries, ACWI-US included. Our current outlook is bullish. Buy dips. In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials &amp; Energy Sectors.

*Potential Deal For Tahoe Life: According to a Bloomberg report, Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] (along with Sunshine Insurance Group in Beijing] is a finalist to acquire Tahoe Life, the Hong Kong-based life insurance subsidiary of Tahoe Investment, for over USD 1 bn; and*Other Goodies May Come Along With Deal: In addition to Tahoe Life, Tahoe Investment is a founding shareholder of Haixia Life Insurance and a major shareholder of Fujian Haixia Bank, Rural Credit Bank of Fuzhou, and Dongxing Securities. Given the financial troubles of Tahoe, we would have to imagine the sale of these businesses would also be on the table for Ping An and Sunshine as well.

*Potential Deal For Tahoe Life: According to a Bloomberg report, Ping An Insurance (2318.HK) [Ping An] (along with Sunshine Insurance Group in Beijing] is a finalist to acquire Tahoe Life, the Hong Kong-based life insurance subsidiary of Tahoe Investment, for over USD 1 bn; and*Other Goodies May Come Along With Deal: In addition to Tahoe Life, Tahoe Investment is a founding shareholder of Haixia Life Insurance and a major shareholder of Fujian Haixia Bank, Rural Credit Bank of Fuzhou, and Dongxing Securities. Given the financial troubles of Tahoe, we would have to imagine the sale of these businesses would also be on the table for Ping An and Sunshine as well.

Ping An Insurance – Where There Is Smoke...

*VONB Better Linked Quarter: AIA Group (1299.HK) {AIA} reported 3Q20 Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 706 mn, increasing 22% linked quarter with positive growth noted in Malaysia, Singapore and India – but VONB declined 28% YOY;*Greater China Challenges: Hong Kong’s pure domestic business reported modest linked quarter growth in VONB, but is still likely struggling with mainland Chinese clients as the border remains closed due to quarantines. Mainland China too was weaker as demand for protection products remains challenged. AIA China's VONB in 3Q20 was broadly in -line with 2Q20, but was likely lower YOY given the savings shift, and lower VONB margin; and* Watch The Investment Portfolio: Yields drive the bottom-line at life insurers. Rates have been reduced to all-time lows in most markets globally, and investment returns at AIA’s bottom-line will continue to be challenged. In addition, ratings agency downgrades are expected to negatively impact AIA solvency margins.  With over USD 220 bn in corporate debt issues likely on the verge of downgrade by the venerable ratings agencies (which is greater than the actual USD 147 bn downgraded during the GFC) the market must be prepared for substantive hits to AIA’s investment portfolio.

*VONB Better Linked Quarter: AIA Group (1299.HK) {AIA} reported 3Q20 Value of New Business (VONB) of USD 706 mn, increasing 22% linked quarter with positive growth noted in Malaysia, Singapore and India – but VONB declined 28% YOY;*Greater China Challenges: Hong Kong’s pure domestic business reported modest linked quarter growth in VONB, but is still likely struggling with mainland Chinese clients as the border remains closed due to quarantines. Mainland China too was weaker as demand for protection products remains challenged. AIA China's VONB in 3Q20 was broadly in -line with 2Q20, but was likely lower YOY given the savings shift, and lower VONB margin; and* Watch The Investment Portfolio: Yields drive the bottom-line at life insurers. Rates have been reduced to all-time lows in most markets globally, and investment returns at AIA’s bottom-line will continue to be challenged. In addition, ratings agency downgrades are expected to negatively impact AIA solvency margins.  With over USD 220 bn in corporate debt issues likely on the verge of downgrade by the venerable ratings agencies (which is greater than the actual USD 147 bn downgraded during the GFC) the market must be prepared for substantive hits to AIA’s investment portfolio.

AIA Group – Greater China and Investments Remain Risks

Canada

Manulife Financial Corporation provides financial protection products and investment management services to individuals, families, businesses, and groups. The Company conducts operations in Canada, the United States, and Asia, as well as reinsurance operations on a global basis.  Manulife offers products such as annuities, pension products, life insurance, health insurance, and mutual funds.

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Manulife Financial (MFC CN)

Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities: New Asset Class for Asia

This is our first report on Infrastructure Asset-Backed Securities (IABS) in Asia Pacific which provides an overview of the asset class, new to Asia.

Bondcritic

Ping An Insurance – Avoiding The Hard Questions

PING AN INSURANCE: Everyone Understands That Ping An Insurance Is Struggling In Every Business Line. Management Refuses To Discuss How They Are...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bullish Inflections Around The World

In this report we outline key technical levels across markets and highlight actionable ideas within our Financials & Energy Sectors.

Vermilion Research

Ping An Insurance – Where There Is Smoke...

PING AN INSURANCE: Tahoe Life Appears To Be Up For Sale, Given The Financial Troubles Of Tahoe Investment. Ping An Is Likely A Bidder, And Other...

Thomas J. Monaco

AIA Group – Greater China and Investments Remain Risks

AIA GROUP: While VONB Has Seen Improvement Linked Quarter, Greater China Challenges and The Investment Portfolio Are Big Risks To The Bottom-line

Thomas J. Monaco

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