Silver Point

Thomas J. Monaco

Independent Insight Provider

Silver Point is a boutique research firm that focuses on the broader financial services sector, with a particular focus on troubled institutions globally. 

Asia Ex Japan

Equity Bottom-Up

Indiabulls Housing Finance / Equity Bottom-Up

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT.

*Bad News On The Doorstep: IndiaBulls Housing Finance (IHFL.IN) [IndiaBulls] reported FY 4Q21 results of INR 2.8 bn, declining INR 531 mn (16.1%) linked quarter. The linked quarter weakness can be attributed to both: a) net interest income decline of INR 804 mn (10.5%) tracking a decline in both loans of 6.8% and NIM compression of 59 bp to 2.94%; and b) loss provision increase of INR 1.7 bn (120.9%); and   *Wrong Turn: Net new NPLs had increased INR 8.0 bn for the quarter for an annualized rate of increase of 159.3% - a complete about face from FY 3Q21’s decline of 11.3%. Reserves ae now frighteningly low, and we would suggest INR 30.2 bn or 9x stated PBT. 

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  *Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.

*Pre-release Says Nothing About Capital And Credit: Bajaj Finance (BAF.IN) [Bajaj] released a FY 4Q21 balance sheet update, ahead of its scheduled earnings update. Key highlights were limited to: AUM growth; new customer acquisition; and deposit growth; and  *Credit Challenges Far From Over With: The day of reckoning is coming for Bajaj as net new NPLs amounted to INR 23.0 bn during FY 3Q21 – increasing at 520% on an annualized basis. By our calculation, reserves need to increase INR 177 bn or nearly 8x - representing nearly three years of PBT and over 50% of shareholder’s equity.

Edelweiss Financial Services / Equity Bottom-Up

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention.

*Negative Operating Performance: Edelweiss Financial Services (EDEL.IN) [Edelweiss] reported yet another consolidated loss of INR 630.0 mn (post minority interest) for FY 3Q21 – declining INR 69.0 mn (12.3%) linked quarter. Excluding the gain on sale of securities, Edelweiss’ core operating results were actually frightening at a loss of INR 4.9 bn – down a further INR 106 mn (2.2%) over the same period. Nothing appears to be going right for Edelweiss, with management now beginning to discuss liquidity metrics; and *Wheels Falling Off The Bus: We are significantly troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, as net new NPLs, by our calculation, increased INR 2.7 bn linked quarter for an annualized rate of growth of 106% - far and away the worst showing of any Indian financial under our coverage. Given the net new NPL increase, we find that loss reserves are light to tune of INR 15.7 bn or 2.3x stated equity of INR 6.9 bn at FY 3Q21.  Negative operating losses coupled with potentially challenged liquidity, and the poor credit cushion could invite regulatory intervention. 

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

*Positive Operating Jaws Return: Muthoot Finance (MUTH.IN) [Muthoot] reported FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 9.8 bn, increasing INR 716 mn (7.8%) linked quarter. Results were even better when we exclude gains on the gold mark-up, as Muthoot’s core operating result improved INR 969 mn or 11.3%. Results were driven by positive operating jaws, despite the INR 478 mn or 469% linked quarter increase loss provisions which tracked the break in credit; and*Gold Pricing Could Impact Credit: While robustness gold prices augur well for Muthoot, we are concerned about a reversal in gold pricing which could hinder loan growth and credit quality. We note that net new NPLs amounted to INR 661mn during the quarter, which intimates that the annualized growth rate for Stage 3 loans remains elevated at 44.7% - in line with most of the Indian financial sector. While we agree that the backing of the gold loans has likely amongst the strongest collateral, losses will mount during this international risk-on period or when gold prices reverse. It is for these reasons that we believe reserve cover has fallen short to the tune of INR 2.8 bn – about 25% of FY 3Q21 PBT which isn’t bad relatively speaking.

*Positive Operating Jaws Return: Muthoot Finance (MUTH.IN) [Muthoot] reported FY 3Q21 bottom-line results of INR 9.8 bn, increasing INR 716 mn (7.8%) linked quarter. Results were even better when we exclude gains on the gold mark-up, as Muthoot’s core operating result improved INR 969 mn or 11.3%. Results were driven by positive operating jaws, despite the INR 478 mn or 469% linked quarter increase loss provisions which tracked the break in credit; and*Gold Pricing Could Impact Credit: While robustness gold prices augur well for Muthoot, we are concerned about a reversal in gold pricing which could hinder loan growth and credit quality. We note that net new NPLs amounted to INR 661mn during the quarter, which intimates that the annualized growth rate for Stage 3 loans remains elevated at 44.7% - in line with most of the Indian financial sector. While we agree that the backing of the gold loans has likely amongst the strongest collateral, losses will mount during this international risk-on period or when gold prices reverse. It is for these reasons that we believe reserve cover has fallen short to the tune of INR 2.8 bn – about 25% of FY 3Q21 PBT which isn’t bad relatively speaking.  

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap.

*Better Bottom-line Doesn’t Tell Entire Story: State Bank of India (SBIN.IN) [SBI] reported FY 3Q21 results of INR 55.8 bn, increasing INR 10.1 bn (22.1%) linked quarter. On top of a significant (albeit completely unwarranted) INR 55.0 bn (58.1%) decline in loss provisions, results were also highlighted by a turnaround in SBI’s operating jaws which are now positive; and*Reserve Challenge Should Lead To Capital Raise: While we note a net recovery of INR 48.4 bn (likely a non-recurring event given the exorbitant credit risk), we still find that net new NPLs increased INR 145.7 bn for an annualized increase of 41.6%.  By our calculation, we find that SBI’s reserves are short INR 1.2 bn - nearly four years of pre-tax results or 61% of market-cap. 

India

Manappuram Finance Ltd. is a non-banking finance company. The Company offers loans against gold collateral, business loans, vehicle loans, foreign exchange and money transfer services; and sells gold coins.

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Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN)

IndiaBulls Housing Finance – A Turn For The Worse

INDIABULLS HOUSING FINANCE: IndiaBulls reported a QOQ FY 4Q21 results decline of 16.1% due to a net interest income decline and loss provision...

Thomas J. Monaco

Bajaj Finance – Who’s Kidding Whom?

BAJAJ FINANCE: Bajaj gave a FY 4Q21 update on AUM; customer acquisition; and deposit growth. No disclosure on how it will deal with India's worst...

Thomas J. Monaco

Edelweiss Financial Services – The Whole Package

EDELWEISS FINANCIAL SERVICES: Edelweiss reported another loss. We are troubled by the enormity of the breakdown in credit, light loss reserves at...

Thomas J. Monaco

Muthoot Finance – Relatively Good

MUTHOOT FINANCE: Muthoot reported a FY 3Q21 7.8% linked quarter results increase. Results were driven by positive operating jaws although...

Thomas J. Monaco

State Bank of India – Bad Credit

STATE BANK OF INDIA: SBI reported FY 3Q21 result increase of 22.1%) linked quarter led by a completely unwarranted 58.1% decline in provisions and...

Thomas J. Monaco

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