ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.</li>
<li>The past week saw insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cp-all-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13889:1" rel="noopener">CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)</a>,. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adi-sarana-armada-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16947:1" rel="noopener">Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amman-mineral-internasional-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:39838:1" rel="noopener">Amman Mineral Internasional</a> IPO, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/challenger-technologies-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16490:1" rel="noopener">Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>.</li>
<li>There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore economies, identifying potential cracks plus insights on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pt-dayamitra-telekomunikasi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34741:1" rel="noopener">Mitratel</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/merdeka-copper-gold-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28447:1" rel="noopener">Merdeka Copper Gold,</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bumi-serpong-damai-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15498:1" rel="noopener">Bumi Serpong Damai</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nam-long-investment-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22687:1" rel="noopener">Nam Long Investment (NLG VN)</a>. </li>
</ul>


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across South East Asia.
The past week saw insights on CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB),. Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ), Amman Mineral Internasional IPO, Challenger Technologies (CHLG SP), and GoTo (GOTO IJ).
There were also macro insights on Indonesia and Singapore economies, identifying potential cracks plus insights on Mitratel, Merdeka Copper Gold,Bumi Serpong Damai, and Nam Long Investment (NLG VN). 


The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - CPALL's Recovery, ASSA Back on Track, and Amman Mineral IPO

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The cinema industry has been suffering from COVID-19 restrictions, in particular social distancing measures that have kept cinema operating rates low.</li>
<li>Now that the release pipeline looks strong again, cinemas will be on a path to recovery. I doubt that the global box office will reach the 2019 level this year, but it will get closer to that number.</li>
<li>Cinema operators worth mentioning include North America’s Cinemark, Cineplex and Marcus Corporation, China’s IMAX China and Thailand’s Major Cineplex.</li>
</ul>


The cinema industry has been suffering from COVID-19 restrictions, in particular social distancing measures that have kept cinema operating rates low.
Now that the release pipeline looks strong again, cinemas will be on a path to recovery. I doubt that the global box office will reach the 2019 level this year, but it will get closer to that number.
Cinema operators worth mentioning include North America’s Cinemark, Cineplex and Marcus Corporation, China’s IMAX China and Thailand’s Major Cineplex.


CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

<ul>
<li>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology</li>
<li>Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray</li>
<li>Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%</li>
</ul>


We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology
Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, and five new join the fray
Since inception, it has gained 105% versus the SET 100 Index’s return of 38%


The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<div>
According to the <a href="https://investor.majorcineplex.com/en/business-characteristics/strategic-invesments" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website</a> of Thailand's largest cinema operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/major-cineplex-group-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16662:1" rel="noopener">Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)</a>'s<a href="https://investor.majorcineplex.com/en/business-characteristics/strategic-invesments" target="_blank" rel="noopener"></a>, the rationale for its investment in shopping mall operator <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-future-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4373:1" rel="noopener">Siam Future Development (SF TB)</a> (SFD) was synergistic. SFD "is an anchor tenant that generates traffic to the lifestyle malls". 
MAJOR initially acquired 77.8mn shares in SFD in 2003 at Bt1.70/share. MAJOR held <a href="https://investor.siamfuture.com/misc/ar/20170308-sf-ar2016-en-01.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">24.89%</a> (422.2mn shares) in 2016 ahead of a Tender Offer (at <a href="http://capital.sec.or.th/webapp/corp_fin/datafile/TO/0676000048247-42016-12-20e01.pdf?ts=1499458214" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bt6.20/share</a>), <a href="https://investor.siamfuture.com/misc/ar/20190311-sf-ar2018-en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">26.25%</a> in 2017, 28.09% in 2018 &amp; 2019, and 29.13% as at the 31 Dec <a href="https://investor.siamfuture.com/misc/ar/20210525-sp-ar2020-en.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">2020</a>. It currently holds 647.158mn shares or 30.36%.
On the 5 July, MAJOR's board <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/050720211745440725E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved</a> the entering of a MOU with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/central-pattana-pcl-0b7fb113-16e1-4535-be8b-02dce5bbcd92" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17188:1" rel="noopener">Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB)</a> in relation to its shares in SFD, at a price of Bt12/share.
An IFA was appointed to assess the sale and its opinion on the <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/060820211832280109E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">19 July</a>, concluded the "Transaction is reasonable with price and conditions that are fair".
A SPA was <a href="https://major.listedcompany.com/newsroom/250820211847500685E.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered into</a> yesterday with an expected completion on the 30 August. 
In Thailand, the obligation to make a mandatory offer is triggered when an acquirer obtains shares of the target company of more than 25%, 50%, or 75% of the total voting rights of the target company. 
Therefore CPN is required to make a tender offer for the remaining shares in SFD at the same price of Bt12/each upon the completion of the SPA.  A mandatory tender offer must be unconditional. 
SFD shares gained ~40% in the month prior to the 5 July announcement, on evident news leakage. Bt12/share is also a lifetime high. I would not be surprised if the tender offer leads to a subsequent delisting offer from CPN.
More below the fold.
</div>


According to the website of Thailand's largest cinema operator Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)'s, the rationale for its investment in shopping mall operator Siam Future Development (SF TB) (SFD) was synergistic. SFD "is an anchor tenant that generates traffic to the lifestyle malls". 
MAJOR initially acquired 77.8mn shares in SFD in 2003 at Bt1.70/share. MAJOR held 24.89% (422.2mn shares) in 2016 ahead of a Tender Offer (at Bt6.20/share), 26.25% in 2017, 28.09% in 2018 &amp; 2019, and 29.13% as at the 31 Dec 2020. It currently holds 647.158mn shares or 30.36%.
On the 5 July, MAJOR's board approved the entering of a MOU with Central Pattana Pub (CPN TB) in relation to its shares in SFD, at a price of Bt12/share.
An IFA was appointed to assess the sale and its opinion on the 19 July, concluded the "Transaction is reasonable with price and conditions that are fair".
A SPA was entered into yesterday with an expected completion on the 30 August. 
In Thailand, the obligation to make a mandatory offer is triggered when an acquirer obtains shares of the target company of more than 25%, 50%, or 75% of the total voting rights of the target company. 
Therefore CPN is required to make a tender offer for the remaining shares in SFD at the same price of Bt12/each upon the completion of the SPA.  A mandatory tender offer must be unconditional. 
SFD shares gained ~40% in the month prior to the 5 July announcement, on evident news leakage. Bt12/share is also a lifetime high. I would not be surprised if the tender offer leads to a subsequent delisting offer from CPN.
More below the fold.


Siam Future Development (SF TB): Central Pattana MGO As MAJOR Cineplex Exits

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Resistance is futile in the world of technology. In this review, we observe a number of Thai companies getting on the bandwagon. Others are finding it more difficult to adapt. For those with the strength to make real progress, it may be worth a look.<ul>
<li>
BAY upgrades Finnovate to venture capital after years of being an integral part of the bank. Finnovate's portfolio now includes Omise (cryptocurrency), Grab (food delivery), and Finnomena (financial advisory).</li>
<li>
Rise of robots. Thailand emerges as top ten user of industrial robots globally and key player in emerging markets and threatening both agricultural and industrial jobs nationwide, according to TNN Business Watch.</li>
<li>
RS reported strong profit growth of over 60% but more importantly, much of this is driven by yet a new business....e-commerce.</li>
<li>
Three interesting Thai startups were recently identified based on their strong funding: 1) a CP Group-backed AI firm Amity; 2) aCommerce, an e-commerce end-to-end enabler; and 3) Synqa, the parent company of Omise.</li>
<li>
Lazada goes omni-channel. Lazada sets up its first pop-up store at Siam Center emulating American leaders like WalMart and Amazon. They may have lost the crown to Shoppee, but it's still a better investment that local defender COL, which partners with rival JD.com.</li>
</ul>

Resistance is futile in the world of technology. In this review, we observe a number of Thai companies getting on the bandwagon. Others are finding it more difficult to adapt. For those with the strength to make real progress, it may be worth a look.

BAY upgrades Finnovate to venture capital after years of being an integral part of the bank. Finnovate's portfolio now includes Omise (cryptocurrency), Grab (food delivery), and Finnomena (financial advisory).

Rise of robots. Thailand emerges as top ten user of industrial robots globally and key player in emerging markets and threatening both agricultural and industrial jobs nationwide, according to TNN Business Watch.

RS reported strong profit growth of over 60% but more importantly, much of this is driven by yet a new business....e-commerce.

Three interesting Thai startups were recently identified based on their strong funding: 1) a CP Group-backed AI firm Amity; 2) aCommerce, an e-commerce end-to-end enabler; and 3) Synqa, the parent company of Omise.

Lazada goes omni-channel. Lazada sets up its first pop-up store at Siam Center emulating American leaders like WalMart and Amazon. They may have lost the crown to Shoppee, but it's still a better investment that local defender COL, which partners with rival JD.com.


Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them

Thailand

Major Cineplex Group Public Company Limited operates movie theater chain under Major Cineplex name, and bowling alley chain under Major Bowl name. The Company also provides theater advertising services and concession stand rentals in its movie and bowling complexes.

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Major Cineplex Group (MAJOR TB)

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - CPALL's Recovery, ASSA Back on Track, and Amman Mineral IPO

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity...

Angus Mackintosh

The 2023 Box Office Looks Promising

Expect another year of recovery. The cinema industry has been suffering from COVID-19 restrictions, in particular social distancing measures that...

Asian Century Stocks

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 39

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based on our FVMR Methodology. Portfolio changes: Nine stocks remain, five new join...

A. Stotz Investment Research

Siam Future Development (SF TB): Central Pattana MGO As MAJOR Cineplex Exits

This is a done deal. Just a question of timing. At Bt11.70/share, you're looking at a gross/annualised spread of 20.6%/10.9%, assuming late...

David Blennerhassett

Silicon Stories M: If You Can't Beat Them, Join Them

Resistance is futile in the world of

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

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