External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock recently corrected ~19% from its peak, owing to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) notice on the end of MGL’s infrastructure exclusivity in the Mumbai GA</li><li>We believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity for investors</li><li>We expect MGL’s outperformance to sustain, driven by (1) a pick-up in volume growth and (2) robust margins</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock recently corrected ~19% from its peak, owing to the Petroleum and Natural Gas Regulatory Board’s (PNGRB) notice on the end of MGL’s infrastructure exclusivity in the Mumbai GAWe believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity for investorsWe expect MGL’s outperformance to sustain, driven by (1) a pick-up in volume growth and (2) robust marginsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Resilience Amid Regulatory Headwinds. Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin, and (3) attractive valuation</li><li>Q3FY24 EBITDA, at INR 4.5bn (+75% YoY, -6% QoQ), and APAT at INR 3.2bn (+84% YoY, -6% QoQ), came well above our estimates, owing to higher-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margins.</li><li>Our target price of INR 1,550/sh is based on Mar-25E free cash flow (WACC 12%, terminal growth rate 1%). The stock is currently trading at 10.5x Mar-25E EPS. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin, and (3) attractive valuationQ3FY24 EBITDA, at INR 4.5bn (+75% YoY, -6% QoQ), and APAT at INR 3.2bn (+84% YoY, -6% QoQ), came well above our estimates, owing to higher-than-expected volumes and per unit EBITDA margins.Our target price of INR 1,550/sh is based on Mar-25E free cash flow (WACC 12%, terminal growth rate 1%). The stock is currently trading at 10.5x Mar-25E EPS. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (Q3FY24): Volume Growth Improves. Maintain BUY

<ul><li>Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock rallied ~26% over the last 6M and outperformed Sensex by ~19%</li><li>We expect this outperformance to sustain, driven by 1) a pick-up in volume growth and 2) robust margins</li><li>The recent Vahan data continues to support our investment thesis with FY24YTD data suggesting a strong trend in new CNG vehicle registrations in MGL’s geographical areas (GAs) which should outpace new CNG vehicle registrations seen in FY23</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock rallied ~26% over the last 6M and outperformed Sensex by ~19%We expect this outperformance to sustain, driven by 1) a pick-up in volume growth and 2) robust marginsThe recent Vahan data continues to support our investment thesis with FY24YTD data suggesting a strong trend in new CNG vehicle registrations in MGL’s geographical areas (GAs) which should outpace new CNG vehicle registrations seen in FY23Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Mahanagar Gas: Robust Volume Growth Outlook

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Shares of city gas distribution players such as MAHGL, IGL, GUJGA and IRMENERG are down in the last one month.</li>
<li>This comes after the government's decision to reduce APM gas allocation towards CNG from 70% to 50%. </li>
<li>MAHGL, IGL due to high concentration towards CNG would be most impacted and would need price hikes. GUJGA and IRMENERG are less exposed due to high proportion of Industrial demand.</li>
</ul>


Shares of city gas distribution players such as MAHGL, IGL, GUJGA and IRMENERG are down in the last one month.
This comes after the government's decision to reduce APM gas allocation towards CNG from 70% to 50%. 
MAHGL, IGL due to high concentration towards CNG would be most impacted and would need price hikes. GUJGA and IRMENERG are less exposed due to high proportion of Industrial demand.


CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>SEBI has overhauled F&amp;O eligibility criteria, introducing stricter norms for stock inclusion and exclusion for more active stocks. </li>
<li>As per calculation, New criteria will include 80 stocks and exclude 18 to 23, impacting market liquidity and stability.</li>
<li>This will lead to the creation of a more robust, transparent, and liquid for the F&amp;O Market.</li>
</ul>


SEBI has overhauled F&amp;O eligibility criteria, introducing stricter norms for stock inclusion and exclusion for more active stocks. 
As per calculation, New criteria will include 80 stocks and exclude 18 to 23, impacting market liquidity and stability.
This will lead to the creation of a more robust, transparent, and liquid for the F&amp;O Market.


SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

India

Mahanagar Gas Limited (MGL) distributes natural gas. The Company provides gas to domestic customers such as hospitals, nursing homes, hotels, flight kitchens, and restaurants. MGL serves customers in India.

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Mahanagar Gas (MAHGL IN)

Mahanagar Gas: Resilience Amid Regulatory Headwinds. Maintain BUY

We believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas (Q3FY24): Volume Growth Improves. Maintain BUY

Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin,...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas: Robust Volume Growth Outlook

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock rallied ~26% over the last 6M and outperformed Sensex by ~19%. We expect this outperformance to sustain, driven by 1) a...

HDFC Securities

CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

Nitin Mangal

SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...

Nimish Maheshwari

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52-week Range

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Mahanagar Gas: Resilience Amid Regulatory Headwinds. Maintain BUY

We believe the impact of concerns over change in regulations and the recent stock price correction is overdone, which provides a good opportunity...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas (Q3FY24): Volume Growth Improves. Maintain BUY

Our BUY recommendation on Mahanagar Gas (MGL) with a target price of INR 1,550 is premised on (1) a pick-up in volume growth, (2) robust margin,...

HDFC Securities

Mahanagar Gas: Robust Volume Growth Outlook

Mahanagar Gas (MGL) stock rallied ~26% over the last 6M and outperformed Sensex by ~19%. We expect this outperformance to sustain, driven by 1) a...

HDFC Securities

CGD Allocation Reduction- Decoding the Impact

​Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

Nitin Mangal

SEBI's F&O Criteria Revision & Its Impact

​SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...

Nimish Maheshwari

Shares of CGD players are down due to government reducing APM gas allocation for CNG, impacting MAHGL and IGL the most while GUJGA and IRMENERG...

SEBI introduces stricter F&O eligibility criteria, impacting market liquidity and stability by including 80 stocks and excluding 18 to 23. #SEBI...