Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.</li>
<li>There will be a few announcements next week with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50</a> rebalances on Friday.</li>
<li>Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-shenzhen-csi-300-inde" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22906:1" rel="noopener">CSI 300 Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sse-science-and-technology-innovation-board-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29279:1" rel="noopener">STAR50 INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/csi-smallcap-500-index-shang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35347:1" rel="noopener">CSI Smallcap 500 Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


The HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI rebalances will take place at the close on 4 September since the market was closed on 1 September due to Typhoon Saola.
There will be a few announcements next week with Nikkei 225 early in the week and the MVIS series post close on Friday. Plus the STAR50 rebalances on Friday.
Another week of huge inflows into mainland China ETFs focused on the CSI 300 Index, STAR50 INDEX and CSI Smallcap 500 Index.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.</li>
<li>Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 8 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 8 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap, 13 stocks from SmallCap to MidCap, and 13 stocks from MidCap to SmallCap.
The expected migrations from SmallCap to MidCap have outperformed the other potential migrations with all stocks moving higher over the last six month.
Active managers could continue to realign their portfolios. Some of the upward migrations will have passive flows in the next few days and over the next few months.


AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as four-year volume CAGR was flat (+3% YoY)</li><li>However, healthy offtake along with market share gains indicate an uptick in volume growth in the coming quarter</li><li>The overall demand recovery trend has sustained led by urban markets while rural recovery has been slower than expected</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as four-year volume CAGR was flat (+3% YoY)However, healthy offtake along with market share gains indicate an uptick in volume growth in the coming quarterThe overall demand recovery trend has sustained led by urban markets while rural recovery has been slower than expectedContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Marico, Macrotech Developers, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

<ul><li>Housing demand continues to surprise positively: After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)</li><li>In the absence of major new launches, sustenance sales are likely to remain robust</li><li>We expect new project launches to come to market in H2FY24</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Housing demand continues to surprise positively: After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)In the absence of major new launches, sustenance sales are likely to remain robustWe expect new project launches to come to market in H2FY24Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Accounting Research Analyst, Trudence Capital Advisors

Nitin Mangal

Indian Accounting Research Analyst

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Forensic Accounting

Macrotech Developers / Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macrotech-developers-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27315:1" rel="noopener">Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN)</a> had several issues on the balance sheet and governance front earlier. While, the debt levels have significantly come down since the time, governance however needs improvement. </li>
<li>Flat sales and margin contraction, driven by some bizzarre expenses needs attention including some elongated debtors.</li>
<li>We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have a dent on the balance sheet. </li>
</ul>



Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN) had several issues on the balance sheet and governance front earlier. While, the debt levels have significantly come down since the time, governance however needs improvement. 
Flat sales and margin contraction, driven by some bizzarre expenses needs attention including some elongated debtors.
We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have a dent on the balance sheet. 


India

Macrotech Developers Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company owns and develops commercial and industrial properties. Macrotech Developers serves customers worldwide.

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Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN)

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: STAR50, KOSPI200, Hang Seng, MVIS, AMFI, Jio, China ETF

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview (Dec 2023): Overlap Between Active & Passive Flows

We see 42 potential migrations between the size categories. The small to mid migrations have outperformed. There will be a lot of overlap between...

Brian Freitas

HSIE Results Daily: Marico, Macrotech Developers, Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services

Marico: Marico’s consolidated revenue fell by 3% YoY, given a one-off channel inventory adjustment leading to a 5% decline in domestic revenues as...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate: Presale momentum continues

After a strong Q4FY24, we expect a sequentially flattish presale growth in Q1FY24 (on a high Q4FY23 base, driven by sustenance sales)

HDFC Securities

Macrotech Developers- Yet to Show Grit

We suggest investors should remain cautious about future uncertainty, as impairment of loans and adverse outcome of contingent liabilities may have...

Nitin Mangal

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