External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 124, is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity, lower refining margins, and moderation in auto fuel marketing margins</li><li>IOCL’s Q3FY25 reported EBITDA at INR 71bn (-54% YoY, +89% QoQ) and APAT at INR 28.7bn (-64% YoY, +14.9x QoQ) came in below our estimates</li><li>Earnings were impacted by weak performance from petchem segment, lower refining margins, inventory loss and absorption of under-recovery on LPG</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Indian Oil Corporation: Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 124, is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem supplies/capacity, lower refining margins, and moderation in auto fuel marketing marginsIOCL’s Q3FY25 reported EBITDA at INR 71bn (-54% YoY, +89% QoQ) and APAT at INR 28.7bn (-64% YoY, +14.9x QoQ) came in below our estimatesEarnings were impacted by weak performance from petchem segment, lower refining margins, inventory loss and absorption of under-recovery on LPGContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, DLF, Macrotech Developers, Balkrishna Industries

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.</li>
<li>Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.</li>
<li>Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/emaar-properties-pjsc-004c637d-b17a-4c9b-849b-0c89d3b1f6b4" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25955:1" rel="noopener">Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aldar-properties-pjsc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27654:1" rel="noopener">Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)</a>
</li>
</ul>


Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022.
Average weights are at their highest levels in 10 years. Despite this recovery, Real Estate remains a "non-essential" sector, with 23% of funds avoiding exposure entirely.
Country-Level trends highlight a rotation from China into the U.A.E, driven by record-high fund ownership in names like Emaar Properties Pjsc (EMAAR UH) and Aldar Properties PJSC (ALDAR UH)



Real Estate:  Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX)</a> in December.</li>
<li>We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.</li>
</ul>


Following the introduction of 45 stocks in the F&amp;O segment from 29 November, there will be big capping changes for the NSE Nifty Next 50 Index (NIFTYJR INDEX) in December.
We estimate one-way turnover of 21.9% leading to a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m). There are 25 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade.
There could be changes to the index methodology announced in the next few months and that could result in the deletion of a couple of constituents in March.


Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>With an asset-light model and a solid alliance with HDFC, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arvind-smartspaces-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43948:1" rel="noopener">Arvind SmartSpaces (ARVSMART IN)</a> greatly increases its project pipeline to 75.47Mn square feet, propelling a 30–35% increase in business development.</li>
<li>Together with its strong market positions in Bangalore and Ahmedabad, the company's strategic asset-light approach guarantees effective capital use, rapid project turnover, and improved cash flow visibility.</li>
<li>Arvind Smartspaces is well-positioned for long-term, high-margin growth supported by strong cash flows, minimal leverage, and distinct geographic and product diversification.</li>
</ul>


With an asset-light model and a solid alliance with HDFC, Arvind SmartSpaces (ARVSMART IN) greatly increases its project pipeline to 75.47Mn square feet, propelling a 30–35% increase in business development.
Together with its strong market positions in Bangalore and Ahmedabad, the company's strategic asset-light approach guarantees effective capital use, rapid project turnover, and improved cash flow visibility.
Arvind Smartspaces is well-positioned for long-term, high-margin growth supported by strong cash flows, minimal leverage, and distinct geographic and product diversification.


The Beat Ideas: Arvind Smartspaces- Growing Real Estate Co with Asset Light Model

<ul><li>Presales momentum remains strong despite seasonally weak quarter: Few developers came out with their operational updates where they have delivered strong performances in Q2FY25, despite the challenging market sentiment and seasonally weak quarter</li><li>LODHA reported a 22% YoY increase in presales, while GPL saw a 3% YoY rise, marking their best-ever quarterly performances for Q2</li><li>These results are particularly impressive, as both companies achieved growth not only on a high base from the previous year but also during the traditionally slow shraadhh period, which occurred in September this year as opposed to October in FY24.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Presales momentum remains strong despite seasonally weak quarter: Few developers came out with their operational updates where they have delivered strong performances in Q2FY25, despite the challenging market sentiment and seasonally weak quarterLODHA reported a 22% YoY increase in presales, while GPL saw a 3% YoY rise, marking their best-ever quarterly performances for Q2These results are particularly impressive, as both companies achieved growth not only on a high base from the previous year but also during the traditionally slow shraadhh period, which occurred in September this year as opposed to October in FY24.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Real Estate (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Bracing for a Launch-Heavy Year Ahead

India

Macrotech Developers Limited operates as a real estate company. The Company owns and develops commercial and industrial properties. Macrotech Developers serves customers worldwide.

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Macrotech Developers (LODHA IN)

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, DLF, Macrotech Developers, Balkrishna Industries

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 124, is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

The Beat Ideas: Arvind Smartspaces- Growing Real Estate Co with Asset Light Model

Arvind SmartSpaces boosts project pipeline to 75.47Mn sq ft with asset-light model and HDFC alliance, driving 30-35% business growth.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Real Estate (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Bracing for a Launch-Heavy Year Ahead

LODHA reported a 22% YoY increase in presales, while GPL saw a 3% YoY rise, marking their best-ever quarterly performances for Q2

HDFC Securities

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSIE Results Daily: Indian Oil Corporation, DLF, Macrotech Developers, Balkrishna Industries

Our REDUCE rating on Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), with a target price of INR 124, is premised on margin pressure due to increasing petchem...

HDFC Securities

Real Estate: Recovery Among Active GEM Funds

Real Estate exposure among active Emerging Market funds is rebounding after a decade-long bear market from 2012-2022, with the U.A.E leading the...

Steven Holden

Nifty Next50 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Capping Flows in December; Methodology Change Coming?

The introduction of new F&O contracts will result in an estimated 21.9% turnover and a one-way trade of INR 75bn (US$881m) for the Nifty Next50...

Brian Freitas

The Beat Ideas: Arvind Smartspaces- Growing Real Estate Co with Asset Light Model

​Arvind SmartSpaces boosts project pipeline to 75.47Mn sq ft with asset-light model and HDFC alliance, driving 30-35% business growth.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Real Estate (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Bracing for a Launch-Heavy Year Ahead

LODHA reported a 22% YoY increase in presales, while GPL saw a 3% YoY rise, marking their best-ever quarterly performances for Q2

HDFC Securities

Arvind SmartSpaces boosts project pipeline to 75.47Mn sq ft with asset-light model and HDFC alliance, driving 30-35% business growth.