Asia and Global Semiconductor and Tech Research

Andrew Lu

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors. </li>
<li>After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.    </li>
<li>After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.</li>
</ul>


Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system, design service, and semi equipment and material vendors but y/y deterioration for PC/server and gaming vendors. 
After 9 vendors beating consensus, we might see smartphone IC and RF, semi equipment OEM, and design service vendors in US to report a better than expected 4Q23 sales/earnings.    
After 6 vendors missing consensus, we might see PC/general server IC and niche memory vendors in US to report a worse than expected 4Q23 sales and earnings.


Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the <em>next</em> 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).</li>
<li>These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.</li>
<li>T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nuvoton-technology-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15913:1" rel="noopener">Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT)</a> could be involved in such a move in September 2024.</li>
</ul>


The T50 index represents the top 50 largest stocks by market capitalization in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). The T100 index represents the next 100 largest names (51-150 ranks).
These indices are rebalanced quarterly. In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs/DELs for the September 2024 index rebal event.
T50/100 index changes can also trigger TDIV index changes. Nuvoton Technology (4919 TT) could be involved in such a move in September 2024.


Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

Managing Director, Zero One, Zero One

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Managing Director, Zero One

Zero One

Founded in 2015, Zero One produces independent investment research and provides corporate finance advisory services with a focus on both listed and private technology companies. Founder Vincent Fernando has over 20 years of experience in US and Asia capital markets.

Independent Investment Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17</li>
<li>Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong </li>
<li>Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. </li>
</ul>


TSMC June Sales Surge Higher Than Expectations; Apple Will Be Use TSMC's 2nm Node for Next Year's iPhone 17
Wiwynn GDR Offering - US$1.45bn Dilutive Offering, but Momentum Has Been Very Strong 
Silergy (6415.TT): Trial-Run with Vanguard, and Recent Stock Drops Represent an Entry Opportunity. 


Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

<ul>
<li>Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.</li>
<li>Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.</li>
<li>We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.</li>
</ul>


Continuous weaknesses to be seen in industrial and general non-AI server semi demand starting 3Q23 and lasting into 1Q24 and some weaknesses in digital consumer semi demand starting 4Q23.
Memory semiconductor vendors see strengths in 4Q23 and continuous improvement in DRAM/NAND price in 1Q24.
We see a healthy mid single digit q/q and y/y decline on 4Q23 MOI but suggest vendors to avoid in next 1-2 months before they guide down the market.


First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

<ul>
<li>Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro phone has made many wonder if it has worked around U.S. technology restrictions to produce a 5G-capable chip domestically.</li>
<li>Nvidia hits new all-time highs... Taiwan AI-supply chain stocks are surging again.</li>
<li>Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.</li>
</ul>


Huawei's new Mate 60 Pro phone has made many wonder if it has worked around U.S. technology restrictions to produce a 5G-capable chip domestically.
Nvidia hits new all-time highs... Taiwan AI-supply chain stocks are surging again.
Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.


Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Taiwan

Macronix International Co., Ltd. designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) as well as memory products.  The Company's products include nonvolatile memory integrated circuits, mask ROM (Read Only Memory), EPROM (Erasable Programmable ROM), and flash memory products.  Macronix also produces logic ICs for audio, clock generators, and graphic application devices.

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Macronix International (2337 TT)

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system,...

Andrew Lu

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

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Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales

Stories Behind the Reported Dec/4Q23 Taiwan Semi/Tech Sales; Y/Y improvement for LCD panel, 8"/12" raw wafer, CMOS sensor, GaAs RF, cooling system,...

Andrew Lu

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/​​​100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

We do not see any changes for the T50 index at present. However, we see three changes for the T100 index and one of the DELs - Nuvoton Tech - could...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Taiwan Tech Weekly: TSMC Sales Beat High Expectations; Wiwynn GDR Offering; IPhone 17 to Use 2nm

​TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...

Vincent Fernando, CFA

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid

First Run of Tech/Semis' Guidance Tells Us What Industries and Companies to Avoid; Weaknesses to be seen in industrial, general non-AI server semi,...

Andrew Lu

Taiwan Tech Weekly: New Huawei Phone Works Around U.S. Restrictions?; Taiwan AI Stocks Surging Again

Dell will report earnings -- Look for PC upgrade cycle color and AI PC comments. SEMICON Taiwan is coming soon, we will attend.

Vincent Fernando, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard T50/100 Sep 24: Nuvoton Tech TDIV Deletion Is the Talking Point

TSMC's strong June sales exceed expectations, Apple to use TSMC's 2nm node for iPhone 17 next year. Wiwynn's US$1.45bn dilutive offering shows...