Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/macquarie-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:310:1" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group (MQG AU)</a>  is looking to raise US$1.1bn in its institutional placement.</p><p>In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, performance of past deals, its recent results and run the deal through our ECM framework.</p><p>We covered its 2019 placement in:</p><ul><li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/macquarie-group-placement-small-in-relative-terms-but-seems-opportunistic" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:32048" rel="noopener">Macquarie Group Placement - Small in Relative Terms but Seems Opportunistic</a> </li></ul>

Macquarie Group (MQG AU)  is looking to raise US$1.1bn in its institutional placement.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics, performance of past deals, its recent results and run the deal through our ECM framework.We covered its 2019 placement in:
Macquarie Group Placement - Small in Relative Terms but Seems Opportunistic 

Macquarie Group Placement - Similar to Its 2019 Placement Which Did Well

APM Human Services / Equity Capital Markets

<p>APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia. </p><p>In FY21, APM supported over one million individuals which included 600,000 jobseekers; 180,000 people with disabilities; 100,000 people with mental health needs; 50,000 offenders and ex-offenders; and 30,000 veterans. APM’s main services include: Employment services, Health and Wellbeing, Communities and Assessment and Disability and Aged care support services. </p><p>Its revenue grew by 49% YoY in FY20 and was up another 28% in FY21 and is expected to grow by 31% in FY22. Its EBITDA and NPATA growth have been even stronger with EBITDA growing at 50%+ each year while NPATA has more than doubled in each of the past two years. Going forward, APM expects its revenue to grow by 31% YoY in FY22, with services margin growing by 27.7% YoY, EBITDA by 26% and NPATA by 20.7% YoY.</p><p>However, most of the past growth has been driven by M&amp;A and the company hasn’t been very forthcoming with data disclosures. Moreover, both of its largest contracts are due for an overhaul in 2022-23 which could impact its earnings.</p>

APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m via a mix of selling primary and secondary shares in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with its largest market being Australia. In FY21, APM supported over one million individuals which included 600,000 jobseekers; 180,000 people with disabilities; 100,000 people with mental health needs; 50,000 offenders and ex-offenders; and 30,000 veterans. APM’s main services include: Employment services, Health and Wellbeing, Communities and Assessment and Disability and Aged care support services. Its revenue grew by 49% YoY in FY20 and was up another 28% in FY21 and is expected to grow by 31% in FY22. Its EBITDA and NPATA growth have been even stronger with EBITDA growing at 50%+ each year while NPATA has more than doubled in each of the past two years. Going forward, APM expects its revenue to grow by 31% YoY in FY22, with services margin growing by 27.7% YoY, EBITDA by 26% and NPATA by 20.7% YoY.However, most of the past growth has been driven by M&amp;A and the company hasn’t been very forthcoming with data disclosures. Moreover, both of its largest contracts are due for an overhaul in 2022-23 which could impact its earnings.

APM Human Services IPO - Strong past Growth but Has Ample Unhappy Employees and Clients

Transurban Group / Equity Capital Markets

<div>
<p>Transurban has almost raised (barring the shortfall) around US$3.2bn (A$4.2bn) via a mix of entitlement offer and private placement to fund the acquisition of the remaining 49% stake in WestConnex. In this note, we will talk about the retail entitlement worth US$273m (A$371m) which was launched today.</p>
<p>We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transurban-entitlement-and-shortfall-well-flagged-deal-for-a-well-known-asset" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transurban Entitlement and Shortfall - Well Flagged Deal for a Well Known Asset</a>. </p>
</div><div><p>We have covered some of the prior entitlement offer related shortfall bookbuilds in the past:</p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/acquisition-appears-attractive-and-track-record-remains-stellar-but-upside-seems-limited" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nov 2015: Acquisition Appears Attractive and Track Record Remains Stellar but Upside Seems Limited</a></li>
<li>Dec 2017: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transurban-entitlement-offer-uncertainty-abound" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transurban Entitlement Offer - Uncertainty Abound</a>
</li>
<li>Sep 2018: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transurban-entitlement-and-short-fall-long-term-value-accretion-with-short-term-earnings-drag" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transurban Entitlement and Short-Fall - Long-Term Value Accretion with Short-Term Earnings Drag</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transurban-retail-short-fall-quick-take-much-better-positioned-now" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transurban Retail Short-Fall - Quick Take - Much Better Positioned Now</a>
</li>
<li>Aug 2019: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/transurban-retail-short-fall-quick-take-much-better-positioned-now" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Transurban Retail Short-Fall - Quick Take - Much Better Positioned Now</a>
</li>
</ul></div><div><p></p></div>


Transurban has almost raised (barring the shortfall) around US$3.2bn (A$4.2bn) via a mix of entitlement offer and private placement to fund the acquisition of the remaining 49% stake in WestConnex. In this note, we will talk about the retail entitlement worth US$273m (A$371m) which was launched today.
We have covered most aspects of the deal in our earlier note Transurban Entitlement and Shortfall - Well Flagged Deal for a Well Known Asset. 
We have covered some of the prior entitlement offer related shortfall bookbuilds in the past:
Nov 2015: Acquisition Appears Attractive and Track Record Remains Stellar but Upside Seems Limited
Dec 2017: Transurban Entitlement Offer - Uncertainty Abound

Sep 2018: Transurban Entitlement and Short-Fall - Long-Term Value Accretion with Short-Term Earnings Drag and Transurban Retail Short-Fall - Quick Take - Much Better Positioned Now

Aug 2019: Transurban Retail Short-Fall - Quick Take - Much Better Positioned Now



<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scientific-games-corp-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9746:1" rel="noopener">Scientific Games Corp A (SGMS US)</a> aims to raise around US$3.7bn (A$5bn) via selling a majority of its stake in SG Lottery (SGL) in an Australian IPO.</p><p>SGL runs a global lottery business supplying lottery products and services across the lottery ecosystem. It works with various governments globally who use its products and services to run their lotteries. As of FY20, SGL had more than 130 customers in over 50 countries. Revenue from North America and Europe accounted for 73% and 24% of its FY20 revenue, respectively.</p><p>SGL generates most of its sales from instant lottery products. It has supplied instant lottery products to 40 of the 46 US jurisdictions that sell instant lottery products and has sold instant lottery products to customers in approximately 50 countries. Its  relationship with its top 10 customers have been ongoing for an average 35 years.</p><p>SGL has been reporting steady past growth and margins have been relatively stable as well.</p>

Scientific Games Corp A (SGMS US) aims to raise around US$3.7bn (A$5bn) via selling a majority of its stake in SG Lottery (SGL) in an Australian IPO.SGL runs a global lottery business supplying lottery products and services across the lottery ecosystem. It works with various governments globally who use its products and services to run their lotteries. As of FY20, SGL had more than 130 customers in over 50 countries. Revenue from North America and Europe accounted for 73% and 24% of its FY20 revenue, respectively.SGL generates most of its sales from instant lottery products. It has supplied instant lottery products to 40 of the 46 US jurisdictions that sell instant lottery products and has sold instant lottery products to customers in approximately 50 countries. Its  relationship with its top 10 customers have been ongoing for an average 35 years.SGL has been reporting steady past growth and margins have been relatively stable as well.

SG Lottery Pre-IPO - First Look at Possibly Australia’s Largest IPO in 2021

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.</p>

Our biggest concerns have stemmed from a handful of large-cap China internet names, which have held back the MSCI EM and Hang Seng indexes. We are also getting a breakout above $93.50-93.75 on the US dollar, a concerning risk-off signal. Still, our list of concerns remains short, and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall.

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Australia

Macquarie Group Ltd. offers banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services.  The Company offers financial advice, cash management, wealth management and private banking, life insurance, securities brokerage, corporate debt financing, real estate funds management, real estate development financing, investment funds management, and foreign exchange services.

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Macquarie Group (MQG AU)

Macquarie Group Placement - Similar to Its 2019 Placement Which Did Well

Macquarie Group is looking to raise US$1.1bn in its institutional placement.In this note, we will look at deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

APM Human Services IPO - Strong past Growth but Has Ample Unhappy Employees and Clients

APM, an international human services provider, aims to raise around US$730m in its Australian IPO. APM runs 800 sites spanning 10 countries with...

Sumeet Singh

Transurban Retail Shortfall Quick Note

Transurban has almost raised around US$3.2bn (A$4.2bn) via a mix of entitlement offer and private placement. In this note, we will talk about the...

Sumeet Singh

SG Lottery Pre-IPO - First Look at Possibly Australia’s Largest IPO in 2021

Scientific Games Corp A (SGMS US) aims to raise around US$3.7bn (A$5bn) via selling a majority of its stake in SG Lottery (SGL) in an Australian IPO.

Sumeet Singh

Global Cyclical Value Sectors Improving -- Buying Financials and Energy Names: ING Groep, Many More

Continued rising rates is likely to support value Sectors moving forward (especially Financials and Energy), and it also typically indicates...

Vermilion Research

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