Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve</li>
<li>Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.</li>
<li>North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23</li>
</ul>


QBE Insurance is seeing a deteriorating combined operating ratio, in part due to CAT events and it unclear to us how underwriting, exposures will immediately improve
Net profit is nearly static, USD750m in FY21, USD770m in FY22. USD400m profit in 1H23 may note repeat in 2H23, due in part to USD700m more debt in interim.
North America net earned premiums are seeing far more distribution toward Commercial, where the COR is especially poor at 109% in 1H23


QBE Insurance - COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

<ul>
<li>During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.</li>
<li>Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%</li>
<li>85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.</li>
</ul>


During 1H24 CGF expects to sell its bank for ~AUD36m which could include a AUD11m gain and allow to free-up bank capital of around AUD40-50m.
Return on capital is now at the highest it has been since FY10 at 6.2% with a substantial 160bps increase in normalized ROE in 2H23 YoY to 13.1%
85% market share of annuity FUM from 50% about 10 years ago, operating in system with strong forced savings in superannution funds now at AUD3.5tr up 91% over 10 yrs.


Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Viva Energy Group  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)</a>'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company</li>
<li>The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent,  Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company
The news of a possible selldown was leaked overnight in the local press and hence, the stock has corrected going into the placement.
In this note, we will talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">REMX US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">GDXJ US</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-property-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30998:1" rel="noopener">MVA AU</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">MVW AU</a> and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.</li>
<li>There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.</li>
<li>Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.</li>
</ul>


Changes to the S&amp;P/ASX indices, REMX US, GDXJ US, MVA AU, MVW AU and other indices will be implemented at the close on Friday.
There is over +/-A$5m to trade or +/-3x ADV to trade on nearly 100 stocks and will be a huge volume day for the stocks at the close.
Use the volume on the buy and sell side to increase/reduce positions especially on the deletes where there will be liquidity to cover shorts on stocks that have dropped significantly.


Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, CSL, Asx, Alumina.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Sep 1st (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.7bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie, Wisetech Global, CSL, Asx, Alumina.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 1st): Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie

Australia

Macquarie Group Ltd. offers banking, financial advisory, investment and funds management services.  The Company offers financial advice, cash management, wealth management and private banking, life insurance, securities brokerage, corporate debt financing, real estate funds management, real estate development financing, investment funds management, and foreign exchange services.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Macquarie Group (MQG AU)

QBE Insurance - COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

COR is now at 109% in North America Commercial segment, where growth of premiums is especially high. Debt is now rising, this is new, up USD700m in...

Daniel Tabbush

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 1st): Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

QBE Insurance - COR 109% in N America Commercial, Where Growth Is High | Debt Surges USD700m in 1H23

COR is now at 109% in North America Commercial segment, where growth of premiums is especially high. Debt is now rising, this is new, up USD700m in...

Daniel Tabbush

Challenger (CGF AU) - Bank Sale 1H24 | ROC Highest in 23 Yrs | 85% Market Share Annuity FUM

Bank divestment in 1H24 can see gains, capital release, and better focus on life and funds. Improving returns are substantial, into a growing...

Daniel Tabbush

Viva Energy Placement - News Leak Helps but It's Still a Big One to Digest

Viva Energy Group (VEA AU)'s parent, Vitol, aims to raise around US$460m via selling 15% of the company. In this note, we talk about the deal...

Sumeet Singh

Australia: S&P/ASX, REMX, GDXJ, MVA, MVW & Other Index Flows on Friday

There are a bunch of rebalances that will be implemented in Australia on Friday. Nearly 100 stocks will have over A$5m or more than 3x ADV to...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Sep 1st): Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Mineral Resource, BHP, Fortescue Metals, Macquarie,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM