Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> will report its Q1 (March) results on Wednesday, May 17th after the close in New York. Although ZTO's ADSs have rallied recently, we expect an earnings result that disappoints investors and forces sell-side analysts to pull down their 2017 EPS estimates for ZTO (currently at US$0.62 per ADS) by at least 10%. In this quick note we examine the Q1 2017 earnings results already reported by ZTO's four China-listed peers: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/18695" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18695:1">STO Express Co Ltd (002468 CH)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/4128" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4128:1">S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352</a>…

ZTO Express (ZTO US) will report its Q1 (March) results on Wednesday, May 17th after the close in New York. Although ZTO's ADSs have rallied recently, we expect an earnings result that disappoints investors and forces sell-side analysts to pull down their 2017 EPS estimates for ZTO (currently at US$0.62 per ADS) by at least 10%. In this quick note we examine the Q1 2017 earnings results already reported by ZTO's four China-listed peers: STO Express Co Ltd (002468 CH), S.F. Holding Co Ltd (002352…

ZTO Preview: Q1 Results from China-Listed Express Companies Show Slower Sales Growth, Lower Margins

Equity Capital Markets

Global Logistic Properties / Equity Capital Markets

The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported on Tuesday morning (NYC time) that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/787" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:787:1">Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)</a>-backed Best Logistics Technologies (BLT) will soon choose bankers to lead a Fall IPO that could raise US$1 bn or more. BLT was reportedly  valued at US$3 bn in 2016 after a round of fundraising, and the company's investors include BABA and BABA-controlled CaiNiao Network, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/433" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1">Fosun International Ltd (656 HK)</a>, Taiwanese electronics giant <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/745" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:745:1">Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317</a>…

The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported on Tuesday morning (NYC time) that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)-backed Best Logistics Technologies (BLT) will soon choose bankers to lead a Fall IPO that could raise US$1 bn or more. BLT was reportedly  valued at US$3 bn in 2016 after a round of fundraising, and the company's investors include BABA and BABA-controlled CaiNiao Network, Fosun International Ltd (656 HK), Taiwanese electronics giant Hon Hai Precision Industry (2317…

Best Logistics Technologies Reportedly Prepares for $1bn+ IPO

We have been arguing for months that 2017 consensus Sales and EPS estimates for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/23628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23628:1">ZTO Express (ZTO US)</a> -- mostly from analysts who worked on the company's October IPO -- remain far too optimistic given slowing demand growth. Even after most analysts cut their 2017 EPS numbers by 6-8% following weak Q416 results (and tepid Q117 guidance), our own 2017 EPS estimate of US$0.53 per ADS remains 15% below consensus (US$0.62) and 13% below the lowest "Street" estimate (US$0.61).However, recent data…

We have been arguing for months that 2017 consensus Sales and EPS estimates for ZTO Express (ZTO US) -- mostly from analysts who worked on the company's October IPO -- remain far too optimistic given slowing demand growth. Even after most analysts cut their 2017 EPS numbers by 6-8% following weak Q416 results (and tepid Q117 guidance), our own 2017 EPS estimate of US$0.53 per ADS remains 15% below consensus (US$0.62) and 13% below the lowest "Street" estimate (US$0.61).However, recent data…

Weak Express Growth, Rising Fuel Costs: Our "Pessimistic" ZTO Numbers Increasingly Look "Best-Case"

Global Logistic Properties / Equity Bottom-Up

Overnight the Financial Times published a story about a new Chinese venture from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/409" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:409:1">Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN US)</a> called 'Amazon Logistics+'. We have included a link to the story at the end of this short note.The new AMZN venture offers packaging, warehousing, customs, and other logistics services to small- and medium-sized Chinese companies that wish to export their products but perhaps lack the expertise or scale to do so efficiently. Essentially, Amazon Logistics+ offers these customers "1-stop…

Overnight the Financial Times published a story about a new Chinese venture from Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN US) called 'Amazon Logistics+'. We have included a link to the story at the end of this short note.The new AMZN venture offers packaging, warehousing, customs, and other logistics services to small- and medium-sized Chinese companies that wish to export their products but perhaps lack the expertise or scale to do so efficiently. Essentially, Amazon Logistics+ offers these customers "1-stop…

Amazon's New China Logistics Bid: A Threat to BABA's 'CaiNiao', Caps Express Growth, Boosts GLP

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector, Drewry Maritime Financial Research

Ankush Kathuria CFA, FRM

Equity Research Analyst, Maritime sector

Maritime Sector, Equity & Credit Research

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

With no ties to other players in the shipping, finance or banking world, we provide a uniquely impartial view of the markets and companies we cover. Our parent organization, Drewry is a leading independent provider of research services to the maritime and shipping industry, employing over 100 professionals across an international network of offices in London, Delhi, Singapore and Shanghai. Combining our market-leading resources with seasoned sector expertise DFRS offers a highly differentiated and comprehensive range of investment and financial research services to lenders and prospective investors in publicly listed maritime and shipping companies. The full service of reports, supporting resources and sector orientated webinars provides our clients with the most complete picture of the organisations under coverage as is possible. We have been charting and analysing the world’s maritime markets for more than 40 years. This unrivalled intelligence and understanding provides the foundation of our research service. Our analysts have access to one of the most up-to-date, comprehensive and reliable sources of market insight and research data available today. We look at globally listed companies within the following sectors: Port Operators, Container Shipping, Container Manufacturing & Leasing, LNG Shipping, Dry Bulk Shipping and Tanker Shipping. Combine in-depth sector expertise with financial analysis focusing on over 50 stocks globally.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the Europe-Asia container trade in February and March and European exporters face highly unusual space crunch. This is highly unusual for a ‘back-haul’ route where ship utilization rarely reaches 70%. Carriers charged an ‘emergency minimum rate’ to accept bookings and some of them have put a stop to bookings until mid-April. Boxes already on the quay are getting…

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

China

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. operates as an express delivery company. The Company provides express delivery service through their nationwide network, as well as other value-added logistics services. ZTO Express serves customers globally.

Sinotrans Limited provides integrated logistics services with core service of sea, air, rail and road freight forwarding, express services and shipping agency services.  The Company also provides support services of storage and terminal services, trucking and marine transportation services.

Yunda Holding Co Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides industrial investment, enterprise management, business consulting, car rental, technical development, information technology, and advertising services. Yunda Holding serves customers in China.

Xiamen Xiangyu Co Ltd provides supply chain and circulation services. The Company offers its clients the capability to purchase raw materials and semi-manufactured products and to distribute finished goods worldwide.

Jiangsu Aucksun Co., Ltd. manufactures and distributes rolled steel sheets and aluminum sheets.

Citic Offshore Helicopter Co., Ltd. provides helicopter transportation services for the petroleum industry and other industries.  The Company also provides helicopter repair and maintenance services.

STO Express Co Ltd. develops, manufactures and markets valves, pipe fittings and plumbing equipment. The Company's business encompasses the    development, manufacturing, sales and servicing of plumbing equipment, valves,  pipe fittings, metal construction materials, home automation, environmental protection and energy control systems.

CTS International Logistics Corporation Limited provides cross-border integrated logistics services and supply chain trading businesses. The Company's cross-border integrated logistics services mainly include contracting and subcontracting international air and sea transport operations.

Cts International Logistics Corp (603128 CH)

Orient International Enterprise Ltd. provides import and export services and agency service for a variety of apparel manufacturers, including London Fog, Rifle, Calvin Klein, and Polo labels. The Company also invests in the biochemical business.

Orient International Enterprise, Ltd (600278 CH)

Shenzhen Feima International Supply Chain Co., Ltd. provides shipping, logistics and transportation consulting services.

Shenzhen Feima Intl Supply Chain (002210 CH)

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. provides multimodal transportation services and logistics solutions. The Company operates a network of offices in North America, Europe, Asia, South America, and the Middle East. C.H. Robinson provides a variety of logistics services, such as fresh produce sourcing and freight consolidation.

XPO Logistics, Inc. provides logistics services. The Company offers expedited airfreight forwarding, warehousing management, drayage, freight brokerage, intermodal, transportation, and reverse logistics. XPO Logistics serves customers throughout North America.

Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. is a global logistics company. The Company provides air and ocean freight forwarding, vendor consolidation, customs clearance, marine insurance, distribution, and other international logistics services.

Bollore SA is a holding company.  The Company offers freight forwarding and transport services, manufactures plastic film and paper, offers port and stevedoring services, operates rubber, palm and oil plantations and offers banking services.

DSV A/S provides transport and logistics services. The Company offers road, marine, and air transport services, as well as warehousing, purchase order management, and other logistic solutions. DSV serves customers worldwide.

Hyundai Glovis Co., Ltd. provides domestic and international logistic services. The Company's services include domestic transportation, storage, packaging, vehicle logistic, and logistic consulting.  GLOVIS also runs automobile auction market for used vehicle.

Financiere de l'Odet is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers transport and international logistics, the distribution of energy, the production of plastic films and thin paper, the manufacture of specialized terminals and systems, and the management of investments in plantations and in other market areas, including media and communication.

SG Holdings Co., Ltd. offers courier services. The Company provides goods delivery, cargo logistics, goods pickup, and other services. SG Holdings also operates real estate development, human resources management, and other businesses.

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. mainly provides door-to-door parcel delivery services. The Company has developed a nationwide delivery system specializing in time-specified delivery. Yamato Holdings offers moving services and other comprehensive transportation services including logistics services for both domestic and overseas customers as well as financial and autoworks services.

Nippon Express Holdings, Inc. offers logistics services. The Company provides freight vehicle transportation, railway transportation, air transportation, sea transportation, port transportation, warehousing, and other services. Nippon Express Holdings provides its services throughout Japan.

S.F. Holding Co., Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides logistics, order tracking, supply chain management, and warehousing services. S.F. Holding operates worldwide.

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S.F. Holding (002352 CH)

ZTO Preview: Q1 Results from China-Listed Express Companies Show Slower Sales Growth, Lower Margins

ZTO Express (ZTO US) will report its Q1 (March) results on Wednesday, May 17th after the close in New York. Although ZTO's ADSs have rallied...

Daniel Hellberg

Best Logistics Technologies Reportedly Prepares for $1bn+ IPO

The Wall Street Journal, citing anonymous sources, reported on Tuesday morning (NYC time) that Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA US)-backed Best...

Daniel Hellberg

Weak Express Growth, Rising Fuel Costs: Our "Pessimistic" ZTO Numbers Increasingly Look "Best-Case"

We have been arguing for months that 2017 consensus Sales and EPS estimates for ZTO Express (ZTO US) -- mostly from analysts who worked on the...

Daniel Hellberg

Amazon's New China Logistics Bid: A Threat to BABA's 'CaiNiao', Caps Express Growth, Boosts GLP

Overnight the Financial Times published a story about a new Chinese venture from Amazon.Com Inc (AMZN US) called 'Amazon Logistics+'. We have...

Daniel Hellberg

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for Carriers

Container Shipping - Asia Import Drive Will Boost Asia-Europe-Asia Box Profits for CarriersBackground - Space shortage has disrupted the...

Drewry Maritime Financial Research

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